The Political Primary Parade is in Full Swing – “The Sunday Political Brunch” May 22, 2022

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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GOP Senate candidate in Georgia Walker - former football great

We are now full-bore, full steam ahead in the political primary season. We had five primaries this past week, seven more this coming week, and by June 7th, 21 states – almost half – will have held primaries. Some trends are emerging. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“My Old Kentucky Home” – The Bluegrass State has six U.S. House seats. Right now, Republicans hold five, with one for the Democrats. This year former President Donald Trump endorsed all five Republican incumbents, Reps. Hal Rogers, Tom Massie, James Comer, Brett Guthrie, and Andy Barr. All five won their primaries. The intrigue is in Kentucky District 3, where Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Kentucky, announced he was not running for reelection after ten years in Congress. He is the only Democrat is the state’s eight-member Congressional delegation.

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“Why This Race Matters So Much” -- Democrat Morgan McGarvey took 82 percent of the primary votes. In the Republican race, Stuart Ray won by just 58 votes taking 29.5 percent of the vote, to challenger Rhonda Palazzo’s 29.4 percent of the vote. Nationally, Republicans need a net gain of just ten seats to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives. This is one seat the party believes it can flip from Democrat to Republican. It’s a big deal and is definitely in play. Trump stayed neutral in this race, but will surely back the primary winner. Meanwhile, Trump backed Sen. Rand Paul (R) Kentucky, and he easily won. The “Bluegrass State” is really a “Redgrass State.”

 

“North Carolina’s Mixed Bag" – Trump suffered a potentially big setback Tuesday night, He endorsed controversial first-year Rep. Madsion Cawthorn, but the 26-year-old Cawthorn was defeated, after being successfully challenged by Republican State Senator Chuck Edwards. It was close, with 33 percent for Edwards to 32 percent for the incumbent. North Carolina is neither a solid red, nor solid blue state. It’s more “purple!” This may bode well for Trump in that the U.S. Senate candidate he endorsed, won. Sen. Richard Burr (R) North Carolina is retiring. Trump backed Rep. Ted Budd (R) North Carolina, who won. But Budd must face former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, the Democrat, in November. It’s a key national Senate race.

 

“Pennsylvania’s Political Polka” – As I’ve said before, Pennsylvania is one of a handful of states that will decide ultimate control of the U.S. Senate once and for all (at least in this election cycle). Both sides are intriguing. On The Republican side TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz leads with 32.2 percent of the vote, to retired military member David McCormick with 32.1 percent. At last look Dr. Oz, led with slightly more than one-thousand votes. We’re headed for an automatic recount. On the Democrat side, Lt. Governor John Fetterman won large with 59 percent of the vote. But Fetterman has serious health issues, having had a stroke last week, requiring a pacemaker installation. As with North Carolina, Pennsylvania is a “purple” state. Sen. Pat Toomey (R) Pennsylvania is retiring after two terms. We send Lt. Gov. Fetterman prayers and good wishes with his health issues, but those issues can raise concerns among voters. That’s just political reality.

 

“Looking Ahead” – We had five primaries this past Tuesday, but we have seven coming this next Tuesday. They are in Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia, Minnesota, South Carolina, and New York. Again, without going into deep detail, there are Trump-backed candidates who could be decisive to the outcome. Nowhere is that more prevalent than in Georgia.

 

“Georgia on My Mind” – Georgia is going to be a flashpoint in the 2022 and 2024 elections, just as it was in 2020. This was a solidly red state that took a sharp left blue turn in 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 over Trump. And then Democrats won two special elections on January 5, 2021. Rev. Ralph Warnock and Jon Ossoff both won U.S. Senate seats, leaving that body tied at 50-50, but when you add VP Kamala Harris, it gave Democrats control. It was the day before the Capitol riots.

 

“In Georgia, it’s Trump v. Pence” – You talk about the concept of politics making for strange bedfellows, it doesn’t get any weirder than this. Trump believes Georgia was one of the states in which the 2020 election was “stolen.” Trump blames Gov. Brian Kemp (R) Georgia, in part, for his loss. So, Trump is endorsing and backing Republican challenger, former U.S. Senator David Perdue (D) Georgia. On the other hand, former VP Mike Pence, a former governor himself, is endorsing and backing Kemp for reelection. Will this GOP sharp division be the “divide and conquer” benefit for Democrats? Their nominee is Stacey Abrams, who nearly won the statehouse four years ago. A huge Republican rift, could toss many independents to Abrams, helping her cross the finish line. Stay tuned!

 

“Herschel Walker” – Is success on the football field a guarantee of success on the political landscape? That’s the question in the U.S. Senate race. If that’s a yes, we’ll see two prominent African American men facing off against each other for a U.S. Senate seat. Has that ever-happened before? Sen. Ralph Warnock (R) Georgia is an ordained minister who served at Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s Ebeneezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. It appears former USFL-NFL star and University of Georgia graduate Herschel Walker will be the Republican nominee. Walker played pro football for Trump, who has endorsed him. It is THE U.S. Seante race to watch in the U.S. this year. Wow!

 

“The Bottom Line?” – Trump won most of his endorsed races, but lost a couple. He’s still the driving force in the GOP, like him or not. We’ll be gauging his influence in the weeks ahead!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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