Why Florida Could Be King in the Next Two Elections – The Sunday Political Brunch April 17, 2022

Sunday, April 17, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Week number two working from the Sunshine State and there is no shortage of stuff to talk about. First, it one of those unique occasions where Easter, Passover, and Ramadan all overlap. People of faith around the world are holding out hope for something better, considering the troubles of COVID and Ukraine. Pray! In the meantime, I will abide by the old adage of not mixing religion and politics. There is plenty of the latter to “brunch” on this week in Florida.

 

“DeSantis’ Race” – Many people are looking ahead to the 2024 presidential race, but that is putting the cart before the horse. The 2022 midterms are critical to what may play out in 2024. Nowhere is that more important than the race for Governor of Florida. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Democrat Nikki Fried, Florida’s Commissioner of Agriculture, and Rep. Charlie Crist (D) Florida, a former governor, who will meet in a primary. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has this race at 52 percent for DeSantis, with 39 percent for Fried, leaving nine percent undecided. Charlie Crist fares slightly better with DeSantis leading him 50 to 42 with eight percent undecided. Democrats need to do something to energize voters in this red-leaning state, or it could not only affect this race, but that of other Democrats down-ballot. The primary is August 23. DeSantis upped the ante Thursday by signing a bill to ban abortions after 15 weeks, which like other states will be challenged in court.

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“Marco Rubio vs Val Demings for U.S. Senate.” – Six Republicans are running in the primary along with 12 Democrats. But the frontrunners are easy to spot. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) Florida is seeking a third term. Rep. Val Demings (D) Florida is seeking a promotion from the U.S. House to the U.S. Senate. Demings, a career law enforcement officer, seemed to have the right expertise, at the right time, with the nation focused on improving policing. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Rubio up with 49 percent to 40 percent for Demings, with 11 percent undecided. Rubio is Cuban America, and Demings is African American, so they each draw from a base. If this race tightens more, it could well be the race that decides which party controls the U.S. Senate after 2022. This contest has huge national implications.

 

“The Trump Launching Pad” – Former President Donald Trump, a long-time New Yorker, now has Florida as his legal residence. He carried this state in 2016 and 2020, with the first go-around securing his win in the White House. In 2020, he simply did not win enough elsewhere. But as I have said, if Trump’s slate of House and Senate candidates in 2022 secures one, or both, of those chambers for Republican control this year, it will be hard for the party to deny him the nomination in 2024. Remember, Republicans must win their “big two,” Florida and Texas, to even have a chance at the White House, just as Democrats must win both New York and California. Trump’s base in Florida may give him a big leg up, especially if the Sunshine State makes gains in the midterms. He has a built-in advantage he will try to leverage.

 

“Is DeSantis Trump’s Back-Up?” – The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll was commissioned for “The Hill” newspaper in Washington, DC, (which in full disclosure is owned by Nexstar Media, my full-time employer) but is not related to this column). In any case the January poll among likely Republican voters shows Trump in the lead at 57 percent, with Gov. DeSantis at 12 percent, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 11 percent. It is way, way too early in the process to put any significance in this. It just makes me wonder if Floridian Trump decides not to run, whether he will fully back his Florida ally Ron DeSantis? It is worth keeping an eye on. And former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Florida and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) Florida are potential presidential candidates, too.

 

“Florida Gains Another House Seat” – Right now, Florida has 27 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives with 16 filled by Republicans, and 11 occupied by Democrats. Florida will also gain one new U.S. House seat based on 2022 census population increases. With Republicans controlling the legislature and Governor’s office, it was widely anticipated the new district lines would be drawn to win that seat, and others by the GOP. Right now, the U.S. House is 221 Democrats, with 209 Republicans, with five seats vacant. A net loss of three Democrats or a net gain of nine Republicans puts the GOP in control. So, you can see where one new seat, and other contested seats will make Florida pivotal for Congressional control in 2022.

 

“Maps Matter” – The above-mentioned Florida U.S. House seats are underpinned by the fact that the state’s redistricting map is still not approved. Gov. DeSantis vetoed the map approved by the Republican-controlled legislature, which is now asking the governor to approve his own ideal lines (something likely to be contested in court as unconstitutional). Democrats say DeSantis is trying to gerrymander two Black Democrats out of their seats, and also wants to control the new seat. The state’s ACLU chapter objects, saying in a statement, "People should pick their politicians, not the other way around.” I predict a huge legal battle!

 

“The Sleeping Monster for 2022” – On Tuesday, the nation’s latest inflation report came out and it now stands at 8.5 percent, the highest since 1981. Gasoline prices are up $2.00 a gallon, with grocery prices up 7.9 percent year-to-date. Energy, reflected in utility prices, is up 26 percent according to the Consumer Price Index. This may not matter yet, but the closer to the November election we get, the more it will matter. Imagine what summer vacation travel is going to cost, assuming most people are going somewhere? The prohibitive cost of a vacation, or even worse a canceled vacation due to inflation, could leave a bitter taste for voters in November. It is a volatile issue, especially for the party in power. People vote their pocketbooks!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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