Spring Forward From the State of the Union – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – March 6, 2022

Sunday, March 06, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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President Joe Biden PHOTO: White House

I am one of those people who has a “love-hate” relationship with the State of the Union Address. Yes, I like all the pomp and circumstance, and the glowing optimism, but it’s more political theater than reality. Very little real public policy has ever come from that address, no matter the president. This week, instead of reviewing the speech, I want to do a prospective preview of the likelihood any of this rhetoric and promises moves forward in any meaningful way, especially in an election year. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“Ukraine” –Yes, the President received thunderous bipartisan applause at times for his harsh words regarding Vladimir Putin and the condemnation of the Ukrainian invasion. But this is an issue with a lot of variables that Biden and the U.S. simply don’t control. Will the economic sanctions work? Or will European allies cave early since they are far more dependent on Russian fossil fuels? I think the biggest wildcard so far is the tenacity of the Ukraine resistance. If it keeps the Russians at bay, just like the Afghan rebels turned back the Russians in 1979, then all bets are off. My point is, a lot of this may be out of U.S. control, no matter whom the president is.

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“Inflation” – Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. inflation stood at 7.5 percent, the highest in 40 years. A big component of that was price spikes at U.S. gas pumps before and since the Ukraine war. The Federal Reserve has signaled it will raise interest rates later this month in an effort to combat inflation. So, domestic inflation was on the rise before Putin, and now he just adds to it. The problem for Democrats is the name Putin will not appear on the U.S. ballot in November. The people who usually get blamed for inflation, say in 1976, 1980, and 1992, are the party in power. Right now, this paints a huge Republican advantage in both House and Senate races, although with eight months until Election Day, a lot can change. By the way, a week ago gas prices in West Virginia were $3.25 a gallon. Friday they were $3.79 a gallon. This matters and is a huge advantage to the party out of power. This despite unemployment dipping to a pandemic low of 3.8 percent. Yes, people are working, but they are paying more for everything!

 

“Build Back Better Back Door” – Did President Biden utter the phrase “Build Back Better” Tuesday night? No, he did not, and I suspect that bumper sticker is in the junkyard with the Edsel. But he talked a lot about providing federally subsidized childcare to help people, especially single moms with kids, get back to work. And providing universal Pre-K for 3- and 4-year-olds, so more moms would be freed up to work. Look, COVID-19 hit this group hard, and they are among the people fiercely struggling to get back to work. Even a lot of Republicans I know support this, as an economic development and revitalization initiative. The bottom line, businesses big and small, need workers. Watch for a bipartisan deal on this! There’s no downside to either party.

 

“FUND the Police” – Folks, America loves its cops and firefighters, especially since 911. And fair people don’t like any first responders who go rogue or go bad. On the other hand, they don’t much care for people who riot and destroy public property and hurt innocent people who just want to uphold the law and maintain the peace. There’s a reasonable middle ground here. Senator Joe Biden always had strong support from law enforcement for being tough on crime. His pleas to, “Fund the police” may have been the most memorable line from the State of the Union, and a show he won’t simply cave to the far-left progressive wing of his party.

 

“Infrastructure” – Another place where President Biden may have scored big points was in his praise of the truly bipartisan infrastructure bill that passed Congress last year to the tune of some $2 trillion dollars. Bad roads, bridges, mass transit, railways and airports are a universal complaint of most Americans. Again, there’s no such thing as a Republican or Democrat pothole. People want to get to work with all four tires intact. The fact that many projects could be let and under construction by mid-year could help both parties, but more than anything could help Biden and fellow Democrats maintain their slim margins in either, or both, chambers of Congress.

 

“Hillary Comeback?” – Okay, as a political reporter I always deal with the constant 24-7 rumor mill. My favorite missive this week is that if President Biden continues to falter with lower approval ratings (now at 37%), than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may be ready to mount another challenge in 2024 if Biden bows out, or even if he runs for reelection. Wow! Where would that leave Vice President Kamala Harris if Clinton prevailed? Would she be willing to run second-fiddle for Clinton, or would she also contest the nomination? There is a LOT of potential drama here! Stay tuned! (See, this is why I LOVE my job!)

 

“Going Middle for November” – The policy strategy aside, I think the clear political strategy for President Biden Tuesday night was trying to appeal to the middle-ground of U.S. politics. The far-left progressivism of Rep. Antonio Ocasio-Cortez is not mainstream American politics, nor is it a way to win political middle-ground and keep control of the U.S. House and/or U.S. Senate. The margins are too tight for both extremes, and Biden wants to come off as more of a centrist. It’s a difficult dance.

 

Which party do you think has the advantage as we move beyond the State of the Union Address? Let us know by clicking the comment button!

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and all of the Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ Contributing Political Writer and Analyst for www.GoLOcalProv.com and its affiliates.

 

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