“Political Postcard From Florida”—The Sunday Political Brunch April 10, 2022
Sunday, April 10, 2022
The “brunch” is on the road the next two weekends from the key battleground state of Florida. The Sunshine State, as always, could be decisive in the 2024 Presidential Election, but it could also supply key “swing” races for control of the U.S. House and Senate this November. Let’s “brunch” on that and all the other political headlines this week!
“Introducing Justice Jackson” – In the end, there was not much drama. You knew when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said he would vote to put Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on the U.S. Supreme Court, it was a done deal. That would give Democrats a 50-50 tie, with Vice President Kamala Harris poised to cast the tie-breaking vote. It wasn’t needed after three Republicans, Sens. Susan Collins (R) Maine, Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska, and Mitt Romney (R) Utah, all announced they would vote for Judge Jackson. A 53-47 puts her on the U.S. Supreme Court, where Republican appointees will still hold a 6-3 majority.
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“But for How Long?" – Folks, this is one of the youngest Supreme Courts in my lifetime and that may signal little change to come. (Yikes, five of the justices are younger than me; four are older). The eldest member of the high court is Justice Clarence Thomas, who at age 73 just had a recent health scare. The rest of the Justices are, Samuel Alito,72; John Roberts, 67; Sonia Sotomayor, 67; Elena Kagan, 61; Brett Kavanaugh, 57; Neil Gorsuch, 54; Ketanji Brown Jackson, upon swearing-in, 51; and Amy Coney Barrett, 50. By comparison, retiring Justice Stephen Breyer is 83, a full ten years older than Justice Thomas. Barring a sudden death, we could have this same Supreme Court for another ten years, if not longer.
“Why 2022 Matters to the Supreme Court” – I know what you are thinking. “There is no presidential election in 2022, so why would Supreme Court picks be an issue?” Fair question, and normally a good one. But with the Senate currently tied at 50-50, one of the two parties is likely to win an outright majority this year. Let’s say Republicans gain a 52-48 majority in 2022. They can shut down any high court nominee from President Biden before 2024, or at least force his hand to pick a moderate, and not a true liberal. If Democrats pick up a couple of seats, and have a 52-48 margin, President Biden could pick about whoever he wants. Again, that is if there is an opening, which seems doubtful. If things remain status quo, potential Supreme Court picks will be a big issue in the 2024 presidential race.
“Don’t Say Gay” – Interestingly enough, one thing the Supreme Court may be called on to rule one day is the constitutionality of Florida’s new educational teaching law, often referred to as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. Now, two state lawmakers in Ohio introduced a similar bill in the Buckeye State this week. We will likely see it proposed in other states as well, and efforts are already underway in Texas. The Florida law restricts discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity at certain grade levels, if it is deemed not age appropriate. Many education leaders consider it a gross violation of free speech and academic freedom. Court tests are more than likely in Florida and elsewhere, and for many candidates on both sides in 2022 and 2024, it will be a key litmus test issue.
“The Race for Florida Governor” – “Don’t Say Gay” will certainly be front and center this year as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida is up for reelection. He signed the bill into law. It will be a lightning rod issue this year, and again in 2024 if he runs for president. DeSantis is considered by many to be the Republican’s best White House alternative to President Donald Trump’s efforts to return to power. For now, he and Trump remain allies.
“She’s Back, but Can She Win?” – She lives about as far from Florida as you can get, but she has pockets of popularity here. I honestly thought her political career was long over, but former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) Alaska, is back in the game, at least for now. Palin announced she is a candidate for Alaska’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after Rep. Don Young (R) Alaska died after 49 years in office. Palin, the 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee, has been flying under the radar for years. Floridian Trump has already endorsed her.
“What are the Odds?” -- I wrote back in 2009, that she destroyed her political career by quitting as governor, before her term was over. I had suggested her best shot at staying on the national stage was to challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska for reelection. After all, it was Palin who toppled Lisa’s dad, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, in his reelection primary. But Palin quit, and made millions as a TV commentator, then faded away. Fifty other candidates may run in the June combined party primary. The top four vote-getters go on to the November election. Many Alaskans still consider her a quitter. I am calling this bid a long-shot, but hey, in politics anything can happen.
“Foundational Florida?” – Yes, in my headline this week I referred to the Sunshine State as “Foundational Florida!” Why? It is not only a key battleground state, but also an essential state for control of the U.S. House and Senate this year, and the White House in 2024. Just as the path to success for Democrats runs through New York State and California, the Republican path runs through Texas and Florida. Unless each party secures each of its key, big states, the foundation to victory disappears. Next week, as I sit here in the sunshine, we will drill down into some key Florida races this year that could decide control of Congress, the White House, and more.
We are less than six months away from the 2022 midterms. What are your predictions? Who will win the U.S. Senate and U.S. House?
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
