The Political Roller Coaster Ride Begins – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - May 8, 2022

Sunday, May 08, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: GoLocal

First of all, happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there, especially political spouses. It’s a tough gig! WOW!!! We have just seen an explosion of political activity and electoral developments this week, which portend to shape the whole political landscape from now until November, and beyond. Let’s “brunch and munch” on that this week!

 

“Roe v Wade Leak” – The leaked draft of a potential Supreme Court decision on abortion sent political shock waves through the nation. I recall no such leak in my 63 years on the planet. Let’s set aside the issue of abortion for the moment. The fact that a draft opinion was leaked from the most secure court on the land, is very troubling, no matter what the issue. Given computer technology, and cyber security training, we’ll know the person who leaked it soon. Even it was not sent by computer, it could have been photocopied and shared. Photocopiers can be analyzed and traced. This will be intriguing! But I bet we’ll know “who done it” soon.

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“Abortion as a Campaign Issue” – The leak comes as the high court is considering a Mississippi state law that banned abortions after 15 weeks. Several other states followed suit, and the Supreme Court planned to have a firm say by the end of June. A lot of folks thought the Mississippi law might be affirmed or tossed out, but not the entirety of Roe. Now, the whole issue of abortion, rockets to the top of the political agenda for the balance of 2022. This is especially true for the U.S. Senate which has the sole power to confirm federal judges, including the Supreme Court. With the Senate deadlocked at 50-50, pro and anti-abortion rights become a top-tier issue and litmus test for many voters, whereas yesterday it was not even on the radar.

 

“The Manchin Mix: Democrat Endorses Republican” – To say U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia is a “bull in a China shop,” is an insult to the bull. This man causes more political aftershocks than an 8.0 earthquake. As I wrote last week, West Virginia is hosting one of the “Top Five” Congressional primaries in the nation next week. Since the state lost 60,000 people in the 2020 census, it also lost a Congressional seat. Incumbent Rep. David McKinley (R) WV-1 has been thrown into a primary fight with Rep. Alex Mooney, (R) WV-2. The campaign is ugly with a “Capital U.” This week Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia weighed-in and endorsed McKinley. That a Democrat would endorse a Republican in any race, is highly unusual. Wow! The winner will get the seat, as Democrat opposition is token. Manchin could be “kingmaker” again.

 

“The Primary Primaries” – We had our first primaries this week, in Ohio and Indiana, but they will open the floodgates. In the Buckeye State, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) Ohio, won with 53 percent of the vote over former Rep. Jim Renacci (R) Ohio, with 26 percent, and some also rans gathering crumbs. DeWine will face former Mayor Nan Whaley (D) Dayton in November.  In Ohio’s big and open U.S. Senate race, “Hillbilly Elegy” author and attorney J.D. Vance won the primary with 32 percent of the vote in a crowded field. Vance will face former Rep. Tim Ryan (D) Ohio – a one-time 2020 presidential candidate – in November. Sen. Rob Portman (R) Ohio is retiring.

 

“Weighing the ‘Trump Factor’” – In Ohio, former President Donald Trump made no endorsement in the race for governor, though it is no secret he loathes current Gov. Mike DeWine (R) Ohio. DeWine has held about every public office in the state, short of dog catcher (U.S. Senate and House, Ohio Senate and House, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and the list goes on). Oddly, Trump endorsed J.D. Vance for U.S. Senate even though Vance once called Trump an “idiot” and threatened to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In truth, Trump wants to play political kingmaker here, delivering Republican control in the U.S.  Senate, even though he does not much like Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) – Minority Leader. Still, Senate control is powerful.

 

“Kiessling Case” – It is a fascinating local election case, which could have national implications down the road. When a candidate runs for office, he or she must meet certain citizenship and residency requirements, and to be clear, citizenship and residency are not the same thing. In Circuit Court this week in West Virgina was the case of Andrea Garrett Kiessling, a candidate for West Virginia State Senate. She was born and raised in West Virginia and spent most of her life here. But the West Virginia Constitution mandates that Senate candidates must be citizens of West Virginia for five contiguous years prior to their candidacy. From 2012 to 2020, Kiessling lived worked, and voted in North Carolina, and briefly in Minnesota. But she says she visited her parents with her kids often in West Virginia. On Wednesday she was disqualified from the ballot by a Circuit Court Judge. Stay tuned! A State Supreme Court appeal is pending. And a federal civil rights case could follow. Wow!

 

“In Memoriam” - Secretary Norman Mineta” – In journalism school, they advise against becoming too chummy with the people you cover. Good professional advice, but we’re all human beings, so sometimes it’s hard. I first met Rep. Norman Mineta (D) California when he was Chairman of the House Transportation Committee, from 1992-1994. I dealt with him on Capitol Hill from 1992 to 1999, and then in his Bay Area district from 1999 through 2008, after Republician President George W. Bush asked him to be the only Democrat in his cabinet. He also served in President Clinton’s cabinet as the first Asian American in any cabinet. My last, brief conversation with Norm took place in the Atlanta airport in 2016, I believe. We were both in a hurry running to connecting flights in passing, “Mr. Secretary how are you?” I asked. “Good Mark, good to see you!”  “Likewise,” I said as we blew past each other at like 100 MPH. I wish we all would not be in such a hurry and we could have stopped and talked. RIP Norm!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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