Political Advantage Cuts Both Ways This Year – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, February 20, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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IMAGE: DonkeyHotey

Wow! One set of numbers favors Democrats this year, while another favors Republicans. It’s political soup de jour! Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“West Virginia Abortion Ban” – This week the West Virginia House of Delegates voted 81-18 to ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. The bill is parallel legislation to the same ban in Mississippi, which is currently pending a challenge and opinion at the U.S. Supreme Court. A decision will come no later than the end of June when the high court goes into summer recess. Several other states are passing abortion restrictions in anticipation of the Supreme Court decision. This will be a big issue in the November midterm elections.

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“The Math" – Unless President Biden’s Supreme Court nominee is so ultra-left to offend moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona, then Democrats have the votes to put the White House pick on the bench, preserving the current 6-3 conservative majority. But this is an election year, and how Senators from states with close races vote on the nominee could affect vulnerable lawmakers who may be “on the bubble.” Let’s examine some of those tight races

 

“Georgia Senate” – Georgia is a pivotal state for Democrats. With two special elections in early 2021, the party was able to seize control of the U.S. Senate with victories from Sen. Ralph Warnock (D) Georgia and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) Georgia. The problem for Democrats is that Warnock was filling a partial term and must seek reelection to a full term in November 2022. Warnock is an African American minister. He will face a Republican African American, in former Georgia and NFL football star Herschell Walker, who is backed by former President Donald Trump. This is going to be a nail-biter. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has it 48 percent for Walker to 47 for Warnock. The fight for the five percent undecideds will be crucial.

 

“Nevada Senate” – Nevada used to be a reliable red state but has gone blue in the past four presidential election cycles. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Nevada is the incumbent. She is facing the challenge from former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) Nevada, who is the grandson of former Governor and Senator Paul Laxalt (R) Nevada. Adam’s father is former Sen. Pete Domenici (R) New Mexico (don’t ask, it’s complicated). This race is all over the map. The most recent Nevada Independent poll has Masto up by nine points, while a Trafalgar Group poll has Laxalt up by three. This should be an aggressive, expensive contest. The minority population of Nevada has surged and gave President Obama big margins of victory in 2008 and 2012. But President Trump lost Nevada by razor-thin margins in 2016 and 2020, and Laxalt is a big Trump ally.

 

“Arizona Senate” – Various polls indicate the incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Arizona is vulnerable. Kelly is a former astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D) Arizona, who was severely wounded in an assassination attempt in 2011. Like Nevada, Arizona was long a solid red state, that has now turned purple. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just .3 percent of the vote, becoming the first Democrat in recent history to win. Republicans don’t have a nominee yet, with five candidates vying for the job. Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) Arizona is the frontrunner with just 25 percent of the vote. Forty-seven percent of Arizona GOP voters are undecided, so that may be interesting.

 

“Incumbency is King” – I’ve just enumerated the three closest races where the incumbent is, in fact, running. In American politics incumbents win, on average, 96 percent of the time. They get a lot of free publicity through news coverage, and that is powerful. But the real races to watch this year are where an incumbent has chosen not to seek re-election. That makes the open seat vulnerable and winnable to the other side.

 

“Senate Open Seats” – As we’ve mentioned ad nauseum, the U.S. Senate is currently tied at 50-50, with VP Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker putting Democrats in charge. There are six seats where the incumbents are not seeking re-election. They are Sens. Pat Toomey (R) Pennsylvania, Rob Portman (R) Ohio, Roy Blunt (R) Missouri, Richard Burr (R) North Carolina, and Richard Shelby (R) Alabama. The only blue departure is Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) Vermont. Do the math.  Republicans have five open seats and Democrats only one. Also, the GOP is defending 20 seats in 2022, while the Democrats are defending 14. This presents a huge advantage for Democrats, as they only need a net gain of one vote to seize firm control of the upper chamber.

 

“Don’t Celebrate Too Fast” – On the other hand, there is role reversal in the U.S. House. Of those incumbents not seeking re-election, 33 are Democrats to just 13 Republicans. That gives the GOP a huge leg up on seizing control of the House from Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Here’s the current balance: 222 Democrats, 211 Republicans, and 2 independents. This means Republicans only need a net gain of seven votes to win the chamber. Historically, the party out of power gains seats in the first midterm election.

 

“My Predictions?” – As I hinted a few weeks ago, Democrats will barely hold control of the U.S. Senate, while Republicans will seize control of the U.S. House, perhaps by a significant margin. A lot can change between now and November, but hold my feet to the fire the morning after Election Day!

 

Where are you leaning in your Congressional votes? Democrat or Republican? Just click the comment button and leave your thoughts!

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states, and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.

 

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