Traveling the Twisting Trump Trail – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—May 15, 2022

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: GoLocal

I’ll be blunt and obvious. People either love Donald Trump, or they despise him. There seems to be no middle ground. That makes him both a magnetizing and polarizing figure at the very same time. I’ve covered every election since 1978 and have never seen anything like it – not even close. It almost defies gravity. And as we head into the belly of the primary season beast, it’s a huge deal. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“West Virginia” – This week, we saw one of the “Top Five” Congressional primaries in the nation play out in West Virginia. The Mountain State lost a seat due to a population loss of 60,000 people from the 2010 to 2020 census. So, the state goes from three U.S. House seats, to just two. That threw Rep. David McKinley (R) West Virginia, into a primary with Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia. Yes, it was the childhood game of “musical chairs” with the two circling to the music, but only one seat in which to sit down, when the music stopped. Mooney, who was endorsed by Trump, won by 18 percentage points.

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“Manchin Misses Mark” – The nation’s most powerful U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, took the rare step of endorsing Republican McKinley in the primary. “I think Joe Manchin owes me an apology,” said Rep. Mooney. “He stuck his nose in a Republican primary, where it did not belong,” Mooney told WV Metro News, suggesting he might challenge Manchin for U.S. Senate in 2024. Ouch!

 

“Ohio, Oh My Oh” – What we are potentially talking about here are “trends,” or as they like to say in political consultancy, “momentum.” J.D. Vance was running third in many polls of potential Republican U.S. Senate candidates in Ohio. And the “Hillbilly Elegy” author was openly critical of 2016 presidential candidate Donald Trump, and even after he was elected president. So, it sent shock waves through Ohio, when Trump endorsed Vance, and erased the lead of his competitors. Vance won the primary last week.

 

“Nebraska Negates” – We should point out that Trump’s coattails and endorsements are not batting 1,000. In Nebraska’s primary this past week Charles Herbster, the Trump-backed candidate for governor, was defeated by four percentage points. It was a second-place finish in a five-candidate field.

 

“Kentucky Reign” – The next primary stops are this Tuesday May 17, and one key state is Kentucky. President Trump has now endorsed all five incumbent GOP Congressmen up for reelection in the Bluegrass State. Even Rep. Thomas Massie (R) Kentucky, who was a sharp Trump critic, got his endorsement, even though Trump once suggested Massie should be kicked out of the Republican Party. Why? Every seat is going to matter for control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, and if Trump can deliver his slate of candidates and seize control of both chambers, it is gold. Even candidates who spoke ill of Trump may get his blessing because it is all about the big picture.

 

“Pennsylvania Push” – Control of the U.S. Senate really lies in two states. As mentioned, Ohio is a battleground as Sen. Rob Portman (R) Ohio, is stepping down after two terms. In the Keystone State, Sen. Pat Toomey (R) Pennsylvania is also hanging it up after two terms. The GOP field is crowded, with Kathy Barnette, TV’s “Dr. Oz” Dr. Mehmet Oz, and David McCormick.  Oz took a slight lead in the polls after Trump endorsed him. Barnette, a conservative Black female with no money, but an intense stump speech, is suddenly nipping at the leader’s heels.

 

“Trend?” – Based on the first two weeks of primaries, I don’t think we can say there is a trend. So far, Trump-endorsed candidates are 2-and-1 in the win-loss column. This coming Tuesday we have five primaries in Idaho, Oregon, North Carolina, and the aforementioned Kentucky and Pennsylvania, so the “Trump Factor” may be in clearer focus with ten primaries in the books.

 

“National Stage” – But after Tuesday, we will have 11 more state primaries by June 7th. With a total of 21 on the books, from regions as diverse as California, Mississippi, South Dakota, Texas and Indiana, we should have a pretty good snapshot on June 8th of the power of Trump’s “political footprint.”

 

“BIG Picture” – The one question I often get from people, is “Why does Trump endorse people who have been critical or disloyal to him?” The answer is leverage. Control of the currently 50-50 tied U.S. Senate may be decided by one, lone candidate. Trump is hedging his bets. If J.D. Vance takes Ohio and tips the GOP majority to 51-49, what does Trump care if Vance once said mean things about the former president? Trump does not want politeness, he wants power, and if J.D. Vance’s win gets him there, then the end justifies the means! In the House, a net-gain of 10 Republican seats, puts them in the majority. If one of those seats is Trump-endorsed critic Rep. Thomas Massie (R) Kentucky, so be it! I get it, that this is one of the things people hate about politics. But it’s how deals are made, and stuff gets done.

 

“2024 Vibes” – I have said it many times before. If Trump-backed candidates can seize control of the Senate and/or the House, he’s a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination if he wants it. Long-time Political Science Professor Robert Rupp of West Virginia Wesleyan College agrees with me that it would be hard to deny Trump the nomination. “No, and I think  that’s the whole question on will he go for it? And right now, he’s on a roll and we’ll see what happens. Of course, in politics, two years is a long time. But nevertheless, Trump is living out his fantasy of coming in and dictating to, basically, his slate of candidates and they seem obligated to do it,” Rupp said. That could also give Trump a governing majority to pass a lot of legislation if he wins the White House again in 2024. That kind of clout may be appealing to many voters frustrated by high inflation and immigration problems.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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