Weighing the Consequences of 50-50 Politics – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 6, 2022

Sunday, February 06, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former VP Pence and former President Trump PHOTO: White House

We’ve done the math here many times. The intrigue of a U.S. Senate split evenly at 50-50 for the past year has made for some fascinating chapters in American politics. Despite the Democrats' majority control with the sitting vice-president as the 51st vote, there were other more fascinating dynamics none of us pundits imagined. It would only take one rebel Democrat, such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia or Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona, to upset the whole apple cart. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Houston, We’ve Got a Math Problem” – Some, like Manchin, quickly realized they could wield tremendous power by simply saying no. The more Manchin leaned on joining with the 50 Republicans, he acquired an amazing bargaining chip. He could ask for the moon, and the White House seemingly had to grant it, or lose a whole nominee or initiative. He did this with success for both sides on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, but his vote was to the detriment of President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. The question now is to what extent this clout will last, and at what cost to the White House?

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“A Supremely Difficult Dilemma”—Let’s just assume the two parties close ranks and we have a 50-50 tie on the nomination to replace retiring U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer. Does Vice-President Kamala Harris then come in to break a tie? Well, the answer is unclear. Yes, Harris as VP is President of the Senate, but many Constitutional scholars argue the tie-breaking authority is only for legislation, not for judicial or cabinet appointees, where the Senate’s role is to “advice and consent.”

 

“Where’s the Test Case?” – I was stunned at what I found in researching this topic. Only once in American history has a VP cast a tie-breaking vote on a judicial nomination, and it was recent. A few years back, Vice-President Mike Pence was called to the Senate Chamber to break a tie, and cast the winning vote for Jonathan Kobes to be on the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals. He took the oath and sits on the bench to this day. But Democrats may hold some blame for not challenging the vote in federal court. The answer might have given us clarity for the Breyer situation.

 

“So, Who’s Right?” – I honestly believe a Constitutional challenge to Judge Kobes’ nomination would have given us clarity. Since it never happened before, it would have been a precedent-setting case, especially if Democrats challenged and won. But since there was no challenge, what the Trump White House did by sending VP Pence to break the tie, may in fact stand as the precedent. So, keep an eye on Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema, and even some rebel Republicans who may feel compelled to rubber-stamp a Democrat nominee. If we have a 50-50 tie, the gloves may come off. And oddly enough, Republicans may be defeated by the own precedent they set via the Pence-Kobes deciding vote! Republicans, after all, eliminated the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees a few years back.

 

“Trump v. Pence” – Speaking of the Trump-Pence dynamic. The week ended with the ex-VP stating firmly he could not have overturned the presidential election during the January 6th certification at the U.S. Capitol. "President Trump is wrong. … I had no right to overturn the election," he said. "The presidency belongs to the American people, and the American people alone. And frankly there is almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person could choose the American president."

 

“Does Biden Get a Foreign Policy Bounce?” – President Biden came to office with many perceiving his foreign policy expertise. But a lot of that went out of the window with the immigration crisis at the Southern Border, the colossal mess exiting Afghanistan, and then uncertainty of what to do with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his threats to invade the Ukraine. Now, has Biden turned the corner with a successful operation this week that killed Syrian ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi? It’s potentially a big deal given his ties to Al-Qaeda. Then again, these terrorist leaders can be like cockroaches. You stomp some out, yet others reappear. Stay tuned!

 

“Build Back Bust” – Moving on to other items where Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia may again leave his fingerprints. Let’s revisit the Build Back Better legislation from earlier this year. Manchin balked at the $1.75 trillion dollar plan, and it collapsed when he announced his opposition. Then there were renewed hopes when President Biden suggested the massive social infrastructure plan could be broken into “big chunks.” Many people thought separate bills on childcare, adult home health care, and job training might be appealing to enough Senators to make it through in stand-alone bills. Manchin was initially open, but apparently no more. "What Build Back Better bill? There is no, I mean, I don't know what you all are talking about," Manchin told reporters this week. Asked by more persistent reporters about Build Back Better, Manchin said, "No, no, no, it's dead."

 

“The Fragile Balance of Power” – If control of the Senate (numerically and ideologically) remains uncertain, it got even more complicated this week. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D) New Mexico was felled by a stroke and he may be absent for at least a month. “All of us are rooting for him every step of the way, between now and the day he makes his return to the Senate,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Wednesday. But until then, Republicans will have a 50-49 advantage on key votes, including court appointments and big bills. We wish Lujan a full and complete recovery, but it just goes to show just how fragile the balance of power in DC really is right now.

 

What are your thoughts? Can some of Build Back Better be revived by political CPR? And which ideas do you want revived? Just let us know by clicking the comment button!

{image_2}Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states, and all of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ Contributing Writer and Political Analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and all its affiliates.

 

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