The Mixed Signals of Campaign 2022 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 13, 2022

Sunday, February 13, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Ronald Reagan PHOTO: Official

In 1980, former Gov. Ronald Reagan (R) California, asked such a simple question, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” To many, the resounding answer was NO! Reagan coined the phrase, “misery index,” to reflect double-digital inflation, unemployment, and interest rates under President Jimmy Carter. Inflation reached 7.5 percent this week, the highest since 1982. But unemployment is at 4% with interest rates at .25%. We are nowhere near the misery index when unemployment exceeded 10 percent, with interest rates at 20 percent. Still, inflation alone can have an impact. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Inflation Conflagration” – One of my most famous and often quoted political axioms is that “Politics is as much about the math, as it is about the ideology.” In other words, you can have the greatest ideas on Earth, but if you don’t have the votes, you won’t win. The reason I say inflation could still be of concern to voters (and the politicians), is that it is something people see and feel every day. Yes, virtually everyone who wants a job, has a job, and buying long-term investments such as homes and cars, come with low-interest rates. But inflation is simply “in your face at the gas pump and the grocery store” these days. That’s a big concern for Democrats who control the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. They are in charge and have to defend their record in an election year.

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“Manchin Weighs-In” – As he so often does, the nation’s most powerful lawmaker, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, is weighing in with a stinging punch at his own party: “For months, I have been ringing the alarm bell about inflation. Once again, we are witnessing that the threat of inflation is real. There is not a corner of this nation where hard-working families are able to escape the noticeable impact of this ‘inflation tax’. Inflation taxes are draining the hard-earned wages of every American, and it’s causing real and severe economic pain that can no longer be ignored. It’s beyond time for the Federal Reserve to tackle this issue head-on, and Congress and the Administration must proceed with caution before adding more fuel to an economy already on fire. As inflation and our $30 trillion in national debt continue a historic climb, only in Washington, DC do people seem to think that spending trillions more of taxpayers’ money will cure our problems, let alone inflation.”

 

“Ukraine Strain” – The tensions between The U.S. and Russia over a possible Ukraine invasion aren’t helping matters, and it’s giving the financial markets jitters. The Dow Jones plummeted more than 500 points on Friday. The S&P 500 index dropped two percent and the NASDAQ was down three percent. Oil prices were at a seven-year high and the Federal Reserve has signaled interest rate hikes are coming.

 

“Real Clear Politics Clarity” – The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll on presidential approval is not good news for the Biden White House either. The average of the latest polls gives President Biden an approval rating of 41 percent, and a disapproval rating of 54 percent. Those are not the kind of numbers you want nine months from a midterm election. The latest CNN poll as of February 6, showed a disapproval rate of 57 percent, and an Insider Advantage poll from January 23, put the Biden disapproval rating at 59 percent. It’s trending in the wrong direction for the White House, no matter how you slice it.

 

“GOP Censure” – “Dissent, even intra-party dissent, is one of the healthiest aspects of democracy, especially in American politics, and should not be discouraged,” said Dr. Mark Curtis, a 46-year political reporter and analyst. Okay, so I quoted myself, LOL! Here’s my point. I don’t get why the Republican National Committee would take the time to censure Rep. Liz Cheney (R) Wyoming, and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) Illinois, for serving on the House Select Committee investigating the January 6th assault on the U.S. Capitol.

 

“Can’t We All Agree to Disagree?” -- Hmmmm! Republican Ronald Reagan challenged incumbent President Gerald Ford for renomination in 1976 and almost won. Democrat Ted Kennedy challenged President Jimmy Carter for renomination in 1980 and lost. Why should intra-party challengers such as Cheney and Kinzinger be punished? Folks, just let democracy happen, and it will. Voters don’t need to be guided by censure. Sometimes intra-party dissent leads to change. When a group of Republican U.S. Senators led by Howard Baker and Hugh Scott went the White House in 1974 and told President Nixon he could not survive, he resigned.

 

“Pence Rebuke Fallout” – Late last week, came word that Former Vice-President Mike Pence was at odds with his old boss about the 2020 election count.   Pence said, "President (Donald) Trump is wrong" in claiming that Pence had the right to overturn the 2020 election on January 6th, 2021. It is "un-American" to suggest one person could have decided the outcome, Pence paraphrased. Is the RNC now going to censure Pence?

 

“Pence vs. DeSantis” – Folks, I think you have to assume Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. But when Trump is taken out of the mix, the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of 1,815 registered voters named DeSantis as first choice with 30 percent, with Pence just behind on 24 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) is in third place with 14 percent. That leaves 32 percent of voters either undecided or backing candidates who poll in the single digits. From a purely political standpoint, Pence may be trying to attract those voters by distancing himself from Trump. It will be fascinating to watch this play out.

 

What are your thoughts on the 2024 presidential campaign? Who’s in? Who’s out, in your opinion? Just click the comment button and let us know!

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and all of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.

 

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