Political Hopes Spring Eternal as Seasons Change - “The Sunday Political Brunch” April 3, 2022
Sunday, April 03, 2022
We are at a crossroads. Winter has gone and Spring has arrived. Ironically political winds often change as the seasons do. Sometimes politics goes from a “Winter of discontent” to a feeling of “Hope Springs eternal.” Candidates are gearing up for November and “Summer” prepared and “Summer” not. And then there are those who “Fall” into the arrogance of incumbency and wind up in the “Autumn” of their political careers. Okay, I am done with bad puns! Let us “brunch” on the week in politics:
“Game, Set, Match” – Last week, I opined that when Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia said he would vote to put Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson om the U.S. Supreme Court, her nomination was a done deal. Of course, there was the possibility a different Democrat might oppose Judge Jackson, perhaps Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona. But that all ended when Sen. Susan Collins (R) Maine announced she would be the first Republican to pledge a “yes” vote for Judge Jackson. There might be a couple more from the GOP, but even if not, Jackson is a lock for a high court seat. It is over.
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“Justice Clarence Thomas Watch” – Folks, do not be distracted by the sideshow emails involving Virginia Thomas (spouse of Justice Thomas), and then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows during the January 6th Capitol riots. It is possible Ginny Thomas, and/or Chief Meadows acted improperly, but there is no evidence, thus far, that would suggest any wrongdoing by Justice Thomas himself. At the risk of being insensitive, the bigger issue here is Justice Thomas’s health. He was in the hospital this week for a serious infection but is now out. At 77, is he in failing health? If he steps down or dies in office, it will give President Biden another Supreme Court pick, tightening the GOP majority back to a 5-4 advantage from the current 6-3 advantage. Folks, all of a sudden this becomes a big campaign talking point for both sides in 2022 and 2024.
“The Justice Thomas Replacement” – All right, I know I am going to be accused of being insensitive, but this is how Washington, DC works. From the day of her cancer diagnosis, people were handicapping replacements for the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Now, Justice Thomas gets equal time. With Judge Jackson succeeding as I predict, Biden will be under less pressure to pick another African American. I say he takes a “second bite at the apple” and re-nominates current Attorney General Merrick Garland, who was originally nominated to the high court by President Obama, only to be blocked by then Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky, who wanted to wait for the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Trump won, and got to fill the seat, and Garland went packing. Republicans, who still have the filibuster, could try to block Garland again. Stay tuned!
“Putin Put Out” – I am wondering if we are seeing history repeat itself, again? In 1979, the Soviet Union chose to invade the mountainous nation Afghanistan. It was a brutal landscape, and the Soviet troops had trouble dealing with the geography, weather, and the intensity of the Afghans’ will to fight and defend their homeland. It is obvious that Russian leaders may have underestimated, too, the will and grit of the Ukrainian people and their supporters (and mercenaries). For now, they are holding the line against a better equipped and better-financed Russian military. It sounds like the history of 1979 is repeating itself in 2022. This week, U.S. and British intelligence released information suggesting Putin’s top military advisors were giving him inaccurate information about how successful the resistance was, not wanting to be the bearers of bad news. Sound familiar?
“Biden Oil Reserves” – We have talked here a million times about how elections are about the state of the economy. With gas prices at an all-time high, President Joe Biden wants to release one-million gallons of oil per day from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The theory is it could lower gas prices anywhere from 10 to 40 cents per gallon. But that kind of impact does not happen overnight. We are five months from Election Day, and the time for potential “magic bullets” is running out. Right now, the biggest enemies for Democrats running for the House and Senate are the numbers and the clock.
“Biden Unemployment vs. Inflation” – This is the monthly tennis match, which will have political implications. The latest U.S. unemployment rate stands at 3.8 percent, just a tiny increase from last month. As I wrote, if you are gainfully employed, you are relatively happy. In a competitive job market, with high demand for workers, many employers are paying well above minimum wage. We are told unemployment is at a 40-year low. Potential advantage Biden.
“But Who Do I Believe?”—On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Board of Governor’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased by 5.4-percent from this time last year. That is the biggest increase since April 1983. The political dilemma is this: If I have a full-time job, I am relatively happy. But, if I am not seeing any significant pay or benefit increases in the next year, my happiness may wane. On the other hand, if there are opportunities for promotion and more pay and benefits, then maybe I am in! The state of the economy and how it affects individuals will have an impact on how people vote!
What are your thoughts on the latest political developments? Leave a comment HERE.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media Group TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states, and all of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ Contributing Political Writer and Analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
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