The Six-Month Dash to Election Day 2022 – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, March 13, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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President Joe Biden PHOTO: file

This past week, on Tuesday, we marked the exact six-month milestone to Election Day on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. The President’s approval ratings are low, and there is financial turmoil with inflation and international turmoil with the Ukrainian situation. A lot of pundits might say it’s doomsday for Democrats, but a lot can still change in a half-year’s time. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“My Predictions are In-Play” – In the last couple of months, I had been predicting a split decision for campaign 2022. I surmised that Democrats would have a net gain of one seat (maybe two) in the U.S. Senate, but that’s enough to give them an outright, perhaps “Joe Manchin-proof” majority. On the other hand, I predicted Republicans might have as much as a five-seat majority in the U.S. House, ousting Nancy Pelosi from the Speaker’s chair. This weekend, I am amending my predictions, just a bit. Follow along!

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“Inflation Conflagration” – Last month inflation was at 7.5 percent, the highest in 40 years. This month that inched up slightly to 7.9 percent. With gasoline prices soaring and other inflationary pressures, it’s not hard to imagine inflation hitting the double-digit mark of 10 percent or higher. And that’s where I’ll draw the line. If inflation hits 10 percent and stays there through October, it’s going to be a disastrous year for Democrats. I say that 10 percent means Democrats will lose control of both the House and the Senate, and it poses an even more strenuous, uphill fight for the White House in 2024. So, remember 10 percent is my magic number that changes everything.

 

“How Did I Arrive There?” – Forget all the economic stats for a moment. There is a built-in mathematical advantage that helps Democrats this year. In 2022, all 34 Class-3 U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs. Democrats only have to defend 14 of those seats, while Republicans must defend 20. That’s a tougher challenge for the GOP, defending nearly 50 percent more seats. All other things being equal Republicans only need a net loss of one seat, to be the weak (but not filibuster-less) minority. Yes, the filibuster will survive (thanks to Democrats Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema), so the minority party retains a strong voice on certain issues. But I think that 10 percent threshold is indefensible for Democrats. I don’t think it’s sustainable.

 

“Check, and Checkmate?” – Speaking of inflation, we already know the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will meet this week, with the anticipation it will raise short-term interest as a way to counter inflation. Yes, that sometimes works, but if you are also driving up the cost of home loans and car loans, all while ratcheting down inflation, you may not win points from new home or car buyers, assuming past borrowers are locked-in at fixed rates. But this is dicey, and a sharp spike in interest rates as we saw in 1980 can have bad political outcomes for the party in power. Keep your eye on this. The Fed is not the “magic bullet” some believe it is.

 

“The Economic Balancing Act” – In 1980, presidential candidate Ronald Reagan coined the phrase, “the misery index” and it was powerful. Reagan was speaking of double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, and double-digit interest rates. All three indices hit 10 percent or higher under President Jimmy Carter, and it was simply not survivable. So, right now unemployment is at 3.8 percent (and dropping), federal interest rates are between 0.0 and 0.25 percent (but with average mortgage rates now topping 4-percent, with slight increases coming); and, inflation is spiking at 7.9 percent and rising. The numbers may look bad now but are nowhere near the horror show that was 1980. But voters under 50 have no recollection of any of that, and may just shrug their shoulders. If they think now is bad, then now is bad.

 

“So Which Index is the Worst?” – I get asked this a lot. With unemployment at 3.8 percent, more than 96 percent of people who want to work, are on the job. That bodes well for incumbents in both parties. And with predictions that home mortgage rates could spike to 4-percent, if I’m already locked in on a 2-percent, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, then I’m sitting pretty. Again, that’s gold to incumbents. But, if I’m seeing gas prices, at $4 and $5 a gallon, and groceries spiking because of that, I’m not a happy camper. With inflation just shy of 8-percent, and perhaps heading into double-digits, that’s right in my face daily. Now, Goldman Sachs is saying there is a 35-percent chance of a recession in the next year. This is bad for incumbents, but especially for Democrats who control the House, the Senate and the White House.

 

“The Blame Game” – This week I posted a simple picture on Facebook of a gas station sign showing the price per gallon in West Virginia hitting, $3.99 a gallon but with no editorial comment from me. However, readers weighed in:  Reader Billy Turbit simply said, “Open the pipeline,” meaning the Keystone XL from Canada into the U.S. Bob Monast also opined, “The Biden administration has to reverse the policies on American oil” (again a swipe at Biden halting construction of Keystone). But, Professor Bradford Deel said, “If you are referring to the Keystone XL pipeline, it was never open. At the very end of the Trump administration, it was approximately 8% complete. Even if Biden hadn't canceled it, no oil would flow through it for several more years.” Anyway, my post got tons of comments from a wide spectrum.

What do you think the White House, Congress and the Federal Reserve can do to ease inflation, or are we just at the mercy of Russia and its impact on foreign (and by extension) domestic energy policies? Just click the comment button and let us know?

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.

 

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