The Fallout of War from the Polls to the Pumps - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - March 29, 2026

The Fallout of War from the Polls to the Pumps - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - March 29, 2026

Nothing happens in a vacuum, in the world of politics. It’s almost like the law of inertia in physics, that “for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” With the war against Iran entering its fifth week, we are seeing impacts from “the pumps to the polls.” With just over seven months until the midterm elections, a lot more effects may play out. Let’s “brunch” on that and more this week.

 

“The Political ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’”- President Donald Trump has been dealt what may be a significant setback, right in his own backyard. This past Tuesday, a special election was held to fill a vacant seat in the Florida House of Representatives. The seat was previously held by a Republican, and the district includes the president’s Mar-a-Lago home. Trump endorsed and voted for Republican Jon Maples. But in a huge upset, Maples was defeated by State Rep.-elect Emily Gregory (D) Florida. Of President Trump, her most famous constituent, Gregory said, “I would love to have a conversation. He’s welcome to call me, as I am his new state representative.” Republicans had held the seat for more than four decades. Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said, “Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky-high prices on everything from groceries to gas, and healthcare. They are voting for trusted leaders like Emily to steady the ship.”

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“How Did Trump Vote?” – President Trump did not travel to Palm Beach County to cast his ballot in person. Instead, he voted by mail. That’s ironic because for weeks, he has been pressing the Senate to pass the “SAVE America Act,” a package of voting reforms. It includes a provision to end mail-in ballots in all states.  Trump wrote on Truth Social, saying, “Elections can never be honest with mail-in ballots/voting, and everybody, in particular the Democrats, knows this. I and the Republican Party, will fight like hell to bring honesty and integrity back to our elections." According to the Palm Beach County Clerk’s office, Trump requested a mail-in ballot on March 14. As it turns out, he was at his Mar-a-Lago estate that weekend, and could have voted in person as the early voting period was underway. Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) New York said, “According to Donald Trump, vote-by-mail is cheating when other people use it, but perfectly fine when he does it himself. What a hypocrite this man is. What a hypocrite.” Trump said, “Because of the fact that I’m president of the United States, I did a mail-in ballot for elections that took place in Florida because I felt I should be here, instead of being in the beautiful sunshine.”

 

“What Does the Future Hold?” – I have often preached in this column about using one election, or a few elections, to predict what might happen when there are hundreds of races across the country. One election is not a scientific predictor of the many. Still, Democrats have something to rally around as we head into this year’s midterm elections. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said, “Donald Trump’s own neighbors just sent a crystal-clear message: They are furious and ready for change.” Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to win the U.S. Senate, and a net gain of four seats to control the U.S. House. As of today, I predict the Democrats will win Senate races in North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Maine, seizing control of the upper chamber. And I forecast at least a 20-seat gain in the House, with Democrats taking a 237-208 majority. A Democrat-led House is likely to impeach President Trump for a third time, even though the Senate will not have the 67 votes needed for his removal from office.

 

“Why Will This Happen?” – Let’s revisit some history. In 1980, when President Jimmy Carter was in office, the nation had double-digit unemployment, double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates, and turmoil in Iran. Candidate Ronald Reagan dubbed the statistics “The Misery Index.” And he famously asked voters, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Reagan won in a landslide, and Republicans seized control of the U.S. Senate. And with conservative Southern Democrats, Republicans won enough seats to have philosophical control of the U.S. House. Today, we have skyrocketing gas prices, plummeting financial markets (i.e., retirement savings), and endless TSA lines at airports. And, as with 1980, we have turmoil again with Iran. History could repeat itself at the polls. Of course, there are seven months until November. The Iran conflict could end, with gas prices plunging, and financial markets booming again. And it appears the TSA could soon be partially funded. Politics is often about timing.

 

“What Say the Polls?” – The ongoing war has mixed support in recent polls. Data from the Center for Public Affairs Research shows that 63 percent of Republicans support the air strikes on Iran, but only 20 percent of Republicans support the idea of putting U.S. ground troops there. The impact of the war is also being assessed. 59 percent of Democrats polled expressed extreme concern about the ability to afford gas in the coming months, but only 33 percent of Republicans had that same concern. As is often the case, independents may be the swing votes here. 49 percent of independents expressed extreme concern about rising gas prices. In so many elections, Democrats and Republicans rely on a large number of independents to put their candidates across the finish line. These key swing voters are the ones to watch in the midterms.

 

“War Update” – On Thursday, President Trump said Iran was allowing some oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It was a sign that some limited back-channel talks are happening. But Trump urged the Iranian leadership to accelerate progress. Trump said on Truth Social, “They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!” Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are balking at the Pentagon’s $200 billion request for more war funding. “We must end this war now,” said Rep. Greg Casar (D) Texas, during a Capitol press briefing. He added, “Democrats must unite against this outrageous request. We should join together to block the request and stop the war as best we can.” The S&P 500 closed down 1.7 percent on Thursday, its sharpest one-day decline since the military strikes began. Friday the markets were just as bad. Trump also says he will give Iran an additional ten days to negotiate before he orders the bombing of its power plants. The deadline is now April 6.

 

“A Supreme Move” – The White House and Republican National Committee are fully aware of the tightrope President Trump is walking, so there will be efforts to prevent long-term damage. To that end, I predict that when the Supreme Court session ends in late June, Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement. That will give Trump an opportunity to have a fourth appointee to the high court, and with Republicans still in control of the Senate, they can get another conservative on the bench to help mitigate the possible November “blood bath” at the polls. I further predict that Trump will aim to find another right-leaning female judge in her 40s or 50s, thereby guaranteeing the first majority-female Supreme Court in U.S. history. Like him or not, he cares about his legacy. This is a big deal for him. Another Trump appointee could cement the current 6-3 conservative majority for the next 20 to 30 years, long after he leaves office

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“Bet Your Bottom Dollar” – Speaking of his legacy. Trump has approved an order putting his signature on all newly minted U.S. paper currency. He will be the first sitting president to have his signature on currency. Usually, it’s the treasury secretary’s signature. The new currency will include both the president's and the secretary’s autographs. It’s part of the country’s 250^th birthday this year. Just last week, Trump ordered a newly minted coin with his likeness on it, again the first sitting president to make such a move. There is a law that prohibits a sitting president from being on a coin, so expect court challenges.

 

“Congressional Hot Seat” – For the first time in three years, the House Ethics Committee is holding a trial that could lead to expulsion of one of its members. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) Florida, is already facing a federal criminal indictment for allegedly stealing millions of dollars from FEMA, which were meant for disaster relief. The House Ethics Committee trial is a separate Congressional authority that can lead to House members voting to remove one of their own. The bipartisan Ethics Committee voted unanimously to file 25 violations against her. Cherfilus-McCormick, who is my representative, said in a statement that she will fight both legal battles, saying, "I welcome the opportunity to set the record straight and challenge these inaccuracies, when I am legally able to do so." The last member to be expelled was Rep. George Santos (R) New York, in 2023.