The Political Moons Are Misbehaving – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - February 18, 2024

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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PHOTO: Mason Hassoun, Unsplash

There were many weird political developments in the past week, I was forced to check my lunar calendar. Was there a full moon? So many odd things were happening (like that never happens in politics)! Nope, it was actually a beautiful, waning crescent moon! Nonetheless, a lot of weird vibes are out there, so “let’s brunch on that this week.”

 

“Manchin Out!” – After teasing us for more than a year, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia on Friday, said “no” to an independent White House run. Reaction from both sides of the aisle in Manchin’s home state and elsewhere was swift. "Well as Chair of the West Virginia Democratic party, I'd first like to thank Senator Manchin for his continued service to the state... I think he knows that that could also result in the election of Donald Trump and he himself has said that is a great threat to our democracy," said Delegate Mike Pushkin, (D) Kanawha and State Democratic Party Chair. "I would tell you without any question in the world, he (Manchin) would pull more votes away from Biden. You know I think President Trump is going to win," said Gov. Jim Justice, (R) West Virginia.

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“Manchin VP Picks” – I was stunned. After all, just days ago, Manchin said he was considering Sen. Mitt Romney (R) Utah and former Senator Rob Portman (R) Ohio as potential running mates. Manchin told “The Hill” newspaper, “So hypothetically, if I was picking my running mate, who I would ask right now is Mitt Romney.” But Manchin also has eyes on his neighboring state of Ohio. “Rob Portman would be right there, too. Rob’s a dear friend of mine. What a good man.” But Romney offered geographical diversity and national name recognition. Friday Morning at West Virginia University, Manchin shut the whole thing down. “I will not be seeking a third-party run. I will not be involved in a presidential run,” Manchin said.

 

“Here Come ‘the Judge” – There were big court cases involving both party front runners this week. First up is the case that might help the Trump campaign. In Georgia, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis admitted in court that she’s been having an affair with the lawyer she hired to be a special prosecutor in the case. Certainly not illegal, but it raises some ethical red flags. On the other side, the feds have indicted a former FBI informant saying he provided false information about Hunter and Joe Biden’s financial relationship with a Ukrainian business. Then, on Friday, Trump lost a $360 million dollar civil judgment in the State of New York for overvaluing properties to obtain better loan terms. Do voters care? November will tell.

 

“Trump Calls Out Haley’s Husband” – This past week former President Trump suggested that his last remaining primary opponent’s husband had gone AWOL, (Absent with Out Leave). “What happened to her husband? Where is he?” Trump asked Saturday at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, Nikki Haley’s home state. “He’s gone,” said Trump. Michael Haley is an officer of the South Carolina Army National Guard who is currently deployed supporting the U.S. Africa Command. Trump has suggested Haley’s husband does not want to appear or campaign with her. First of all, he is on active duty and in uniform. Pentagon rules prohibit him (or any other officer) from electioneering, even for a relative. To suggest he cowardly stayed away is offensive.

 

“Haley Fires Back” – The former governor took out a new ad to fire back. “If you mock the service of a combat veteran, you don’t deserve a driver’s license, let alone being president of the United States.” Then, she gave a campaign speech in South Carolina. “You can’t have a commander-in-chief that doesn’t understand what made this country great,” Haley said. “It’s the values, it’s the sacrifice, it’s the freedom. That’s what we fight for every day.” Trump, who previously mocked military hero, Sen. John McCain, doesn’t seem to know any better, as neither he, nor his children, has ever served in uniform. But as commander-in-chief, he should know better. My daughter is presently deployed with the U.S. Army. When they tell you to go, you go! It’s not like you can pick and choose.

 

“Trump Calls Haley ‘Birdbrain’” – Trump also called Haley a “birdbrain” after her weak performance in the recent Nevada caucus and primary. I know for months that I have been touting Haley as Trump’s best pick for a running mate, but that prediction has come to an end. He won’t pick her, and I don’t think she’d join if asked. There’s just too much bitter blood that the Biden team would funnel into campaign ads.

 

“Why Trump Needs Haley” – My analysis tells me that Trump’s relentless attacks on former Gov. Nikki Haley are a mistake. Recent polls tell us that illegal immigration has now surpassed the economy as the number one issue in Campaign 2024. Haley is from an Asian-American family who came here legally. They did it the right way. That would be gold in a campaign ad. Polls also indicate that suburban women are a key swing vote constituency, and that their number one issue is safety for their family. Showing you are the candidate that is toughest on immigration, including the trafficking of deadly fentanyl, is critical. This is important in appealing to suburban soccer moms who swing back and forth between D and R.

Trump did well in the suburbs in 2016, then lost badly in 2020. Trump is also looking at former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) Hawaii, also an Asian American, as a potential running mate.

 

“Trump-Scott Ticket?” – The most intriguing VP buzz now, is about another South Carolinian. Sen. Tim Scott (R) of South Carolina who came out and endorsed Trump after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) dropped out and endorsed Trump. Many thought Scott would endorse Haley, as she appointed him to the U.S. Senate. Now, Scott, an African American, has been touted as a VP prospect. Strategically, it is a very good idea. Trump won the White House in 2016, by outperforming Hillary Clinton in many African American communities in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which Trump won that year. All three states flipped to Biden in 2020. Right now, Scott is Trump’s VP frontrunner in my book.

 

“Preview February 24th Primary” – It may be an afterthought, but let me put the latest poll numbers out there. The Real Clear Politics Composite Poll from February 10 has the South Carolina Primary at 64% for Trump to 31% for Nikki Haley, a 2-to-1 blowout in her home state. Will she bow out after such a loss or fight on to Super Tuesday, March 5th?

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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