The Punishing Primary Path Continues – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former VP Mike Pence and former President Donald Trump - now foes, Pence won the first battle big

Five more primaries this past week, with five the previous week, and more on the way. That’s why we say, “Politics is a marathon, not a sprint.” This year’s primary season could pave the road to control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2022, and also who gets the keys to the White House in 2024. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

 

“Georgia on My Mind" – To no one’s surprise former college and pro football great Herschel Walker easily won the Republican U.S. Senate nomination. Yes, it’s a big Trump win as he and Walker are long-time friends. But Walker is a legend in Georgia and would have likely beaten any opponent. The real test for Trump is whether he can help Walker knock off Sen. Ralph Warnock (D) Georgia. Warnock preaches at the Ebenezer Baptist Church where Rev. Martin Luther King Sr. and Jr., both presided. In all my years covering politics, this may be the most prominent and consequential race where two popular Black men faced off against each other. It is the marquee Senate race in the nation in 2022 and is key to which party controls the Senate.

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“Trump-Perdue vs. Pence-Kemp” – This is like a WWE World Championship tag-team match, and in the world of TV wrestling this is the dreaded “loser leaves town” match. In 2018 President Donald Trump backed then-candidate Brian Kemp (R) Georgia who won the office. Two years later the relationship soured as Trump blamed Kemp for not overturning the 2020 election results in which Joe Biden won the Peach State. (Kemp has no power to overturn the vote). So, Trump endorsed the Republican challenger David Perdue, while former Vice president Mike Pence split with his old boss and endorsed Kemp. It got ugly, but the Pence-backed Kemp blew Perdue away, 74 percent to 22 percent. So, it’s a sharp Trump rebuke. The winner still has to face Democrat Stacey Abrams who nearly won four years ago.

 

“Georgia Brawl, Round 3” – Another person Mr. Trump targeted this year was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), who Trump also blamed for his Georgia loss in 2020. Trump wanted Raffensperger to join Kemp in overturning the election, even though they lacked the authority. Trump-backed the incumbent’s opponent, Rep. Jody Hice (R) Georgia, but Raffensperger won in a near landslide, 52 to 33 percent. So, Trump is 1-and-2 in the big Georgia races. This now “purple state” will have huge sway in 2022 and 2024. It certainly did in 2020, when it not only went for Biden, but also replaced two Senate Republicans with two Democrats, thereby seizing control of the U.S. Senate.

 

“The Texas Two-Step” – Land Commissioner George P. Bush, (R) Texas represents the fourth generation of one of America’s most powerful political families. This year he rolled the dice and ran for Texas Attorney General against incumbent AG Ken Paxton who has serious legal problems. Former President Trump, who despises the Bush family, endorsed Paxton. Despite that Bush still ran ads praising Trump. It didn’t work. Paxton crushed Bush 68 percent to 32 percent. One network commentator I was listening to said, “The Bush Dynasty is over!” Baloney! Bush is only 46. He’s a lawyer with ten years in the U.S. Navy. He’s also half-Latino. He checks a lot of boxes that make him an attractive candidate. Just remember his dad, uncle and grandpa also lost some of their early political races, only to bounce back big. This guy is in for the long haul.

 

“It’s All in the Family!” – In Arkansas, former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, easily won the Republican nomination for governor, with 83 percent of the vote. She, of course, is the daughter of former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Arkansas. Sanders had the endorsement of her former boss, President Trump, so put another win in his column. Arkansas has never had a woman governor. To my recollection, I don’t think we’ve ever had a father-daughter combo serve any state as governor. But, for that to happen, Sanders will have to beat Democrat nominee Chris Jones, the first African American nominee for Arkansas governor. Arkansas has sent a lot of Democrats to the Governor’s mansion, so this is not in the bag until November.

 

“Sweet Home Alabama" – In a very strange race, Rep. Mo Brooks (R) Alabama was running to get promoted from the House to the Senate. Donald Trump endorsed Brooks, but later rescinded his endorsement. Brooks lost to fellow Republican Katie Britt, with a vote count of 45 percent,  Britt to 29 percent for Brooks, and military veteran Mike Durrant placing third with 23 percent. Congressman Brooks was already in hot water in certain corners of the Republican Party, for telling the January 6th Capitol rioters to “fight!” It’s not over yet. There will be a runoff as Alabama requires a nominee to win a majority of the vote. The winner faces Democrat Mike Boyd.

 

“Gun Politics” – With two big mass shootings with multiple fatalities in the last few weeks – one in Buffalo, New York, and the other in Uvalde, Texas - you can predict that gun legislation and mental health bills will rise to the forefront in Washington, DC (and on the campaign trail). “Why are we willing to live with this carnage? Why do we keep letting this happen? Where in God’s name is our backbone to have the courage to deal with it and stand up to the (gun) lobbies?” said President Biden in his address to the nation. 

 

“An About-Face?” -- To the surprise of many, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell instructed Sen. Jon Cornyn (R) Texas, to reach out to Democrats on potential common ground gun legislation. McConnell gave guidance, "in trying to get an outcome that's directly related to the problem. And so, I am hopeful that we could come up with a bipartisan solution that's directly related to the facts of this awful massacre." That may include so-called “red flag” laws, which allow relatives to get weapons confiscated from family members showing mental illness and threats to others. Another area of bipartisan compromise could be universal background checks. Again, it will be a fight, but the two sides seem willing to talk. That’s new.

 

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