The third and final Presidential debate is Wednesday night, October 19. Republican nominee Donald Trump is clearly in trouble, but politics has often been called "the art of the possible.” With that in mind, this is my third and - thankfully - my last column about what each candidate should use for a debate strategy. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:
“Give Us Your Plan” – Donald Trump’s best and last shot involves laying out the specifics of his agenda. He must - in very pointed fashion - say, “This is my jobs plan!”; “This is my defeat-ISIS plan!”; “This is my immigration plan!”; and, “This is my education plan.” Voters need to hear his vision – and to hear it in a specific agenda. This is his last chance to say, “This is who I am and why you should vote for me.”
“Attack! Attack! Attack!” – Hillary Clinton’s strategy needs to be a blitzkrieg attacking Trump's highly-tinged comments about women and their allegations of sexual impropriety involving Trump. I know. This sounds completely counter-intuitive given her husband’s similar pattern of behavior. But let’s face it. The “Access Hollywood” tapes gave her the spike in the polls this week. Plus, Trump has hurt himself on the counterattacks. It’s weird, but her response needs to be that “Hillary Clinton is running for President this year - not Bill Clinton.” Strange, but it’s a defense!
“Counterattack” – Trump needs to apologize for the “Access Hollywood” tapes and to say, “Look, that was 11 years ago. I’ve apologized; I’ve learned; and this campaign has changed me and my view of America.” When Clinton attacks him for his remarks, he needs to say, “Look, I was wrong. My behavior was out of line. But how is dwelling on this going to re-employ one displaced coal miner in West Virginia?” Oddly, he needs to make the very same argument that President Clinton made during the 1998 impeachment – that there are far more troublesome issues of concern to the American people. Yes, he needs to steal Bill Clinton’s playbook; and I say that as a political strategy – not in any way as a defense for their boorish behavior.
“Not the Counterattack” – Something that fell flat in the second debate was Trump’s accusation that Hillary Clinton was complicit in her husband’s behavior - that she attacked his accusers and demonized the women involved. This strategy is a mistake, because during the impeachment proceedings, the majority of people – rightly or wrongly – viewed Hillary Clinton as a victim of her husband’s indiscretions. She was a sympathetic figure – as any cheated-on spouse would be. Attacking Hillary for her husband’s behavior is not going to win Trump many votes among the dwindling undecideds at the 11th hour.
“The Three-Point Plan” – When I teach public speaking, I preach something known as “The Rule of Threes.” Basically, the rule states that when you give a speech, you are lucky if people remember three things about it. That’s why we always suggest starting with a joke, because it’s a memorable moment. Ronald Reagan was the master of this in politics. In 1980 he promised three things: 1) rebuild the national defense; 2) cut taxes; and, 3) shrink the size of government. Critics called it simplistic; defenders said it was a memorable mantra, and they were right, as Reagan won in a landslide. Wednesday night, Trump needs to give voters three simple policy reasons to vote for him.
“Sell Your Resume” – The Clinton campaign keeps preaching the line that she is the most experienced candidate ever to run for President. I think I’ve shown in previous columns that that is simply not empirically correct. Other nominees, such as James Monroe, Andrew Jackson, Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt, and George H.W. Bush, had equally or far more impressive resumes. Nonetheless, Clinton has thirty-plus years in politics, so she needs to underscore it! Experience is a huge selling point in any job interview.
“The Math Problem” – The Trump slide has been starkest in the “Battleground States," which - up until a week ago – showed a very close contest nationwide. Trump was slightly or moderately ahead in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. Those states account for 77 Electoral College votes. When you combine them with states that are already safe for Trump, he had 275 Electoral College votes, five more than he needed to win the White House. Today, he is behind in all five of the swing states that will decide this election. He must win in all five, or it’s over. Right now it’s not trending his way, so Wednesday’s debate is crucial.
“Being Presidential” – As I always say, being “Presidential” has no precise definition. But people know it, when they see it. Hillary Clinton – who is widely unpopular – showed it in the first two debates with the odd argument, “You may not like me, but I’m qualified for this job!” Trump has to show that, too. He needs the statesman-like appearancethat he exhibited on his trip to Mexico. That’s why he needs to take the high road on the sex-scandal stuff. It sounds weird, but his best defense is the Bill Clinton defense. Odd!
“The Fallout” – Trump needs to be unselfish and to think about collateral damage. Control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, which would be a 50-50 tie; and Vice President Tim Kaine – as Senate President – would tip control to the Democrats. Right now, Democrats look to pick up Senate seats in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Republicans may pick up a seat in Nevada. The two seats “on the bubble” are in New Hampshire and North Carolina. If Hillary Clinton wins those two states, her coattails could lead to Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Remember that only the Senate votes on Supreme Court nominees and foreign treaties. This is a big deal!
What would you do in the third debate if you were Trump or Clinton? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurisMedia.com.
Related Slideshow: Trump’s Performance at Pivotal Second Presidential Debate with Clinton
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
We did not see a contrite Donald Trump in this debate. He tripled down on many of his past statements. He claimed Bill Clinton is a rapist. He threatened to put Hillary Clinton in jail. This may help him with his base, but not with undecided voters. I don't think Trump helped himself expand his support.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
Clinton condemned Trump's insults and presented a positive vision for the country. She criticized him for not paying federal income taxes and defended Obama's health care program.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
I think Clinton did a better job than Trump in expanding her support. She was knowledgeable about policy issues and displayed a good temperament for being president. I don't see a path to victory for Trump given his lewd comments and failure to pay federal income taxes. The most shocking part of this debate was Trump's threat to put Clinton in prison over her emails. I can't remember any recent campaign where someone mad that threat.
Joseph Paolino, Former Mayor of Providence and Clinton Appointee (Ambassador to Malta)
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
I thought [Clinton] did a good job. I thought Trump seemed erratic -- he got involved in minutiae, like time management, in all that stuff which was a diversion. Granted, he needed a diversion. But CNN ultimately found Clinton talked more than him in total minutes.
I think disagreeing with his Vice President was a bit of a problem. Letting dictators run countries? Again, I thought Clinton did really well. I'm trying to figure out what Trump was thinking bringing those women out -- was that part of the debate? No, but he tried to make it though.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
I think there's still going be fixation on the live mic [comments], but it will be the media to decide what that fixation is.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
She showed she's in control of the facts, the issues, that she's intelligent, that she's been helping children and families. What he showed is he's an expert in avoiding taxes, and again, when he talks about others not paying [taxes] as well, he causes diversions -- I'm less concerned about the tax diversion more concerned that he lost nearly a billion dollars.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Trump really helped himself tonight by living to fight another day. Trump used humor, did not interrupt as much, and remained poised after a brutal weekend of coverage on the tape. Hillary once again showed she is a skilled debater but seemed rattled at times tonight and he really had her on the ropes.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The beginning of the debate was awkward, uncomfortable, and incredibly tense. After they dealt with the tape, Trump seemed to gain momentum tonight. Trump going after moderators plays to his core crowd of voters.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
Trump kept his path to victory open tonight. This debate really will help him get energy back and his supporters loved it. Tonight was a huge night for Trump supporters.
June Speakman, Roger Williams University Professor
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Trump’s performance in this debate was better than in the first. He was more focused and organized in his attacks on Clinton. But he persisted with the interrupting behavior, and his physical presence on the stage—pacing and standing a bit too close to Clinton—did nothing to dispel the impression of, shall we say, ungentlemanly conduct towards women. His candidacy cannot be saved or lost by a single debate performance. It is the accumulation of behaviors, comments and context that will determine his fate.
2. Were was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
Throughout this campaign, Mr. Trump has made comments that have offended women, Gold Star families, immigrants, Muslim-Americans, Americans with disabilities and more. Any one of these episodes or comments would have sunk another candidate, yet Trump has weathered them all. Those of us watching the campaign keep wondering if and when the fatal mistake will be made. The live-mic comments may be that mistake because of their rawness and their undeniability. The departure of so many Republicans from Trump’s camp is certainly a sign of the seriousness of this particular case. Yet, in this wild, unpredictable year, who knows?
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
At this point, it is difficult to see a path to victory, but as noted before, this campaign breaks the mold used by political scientist to analyze elections. In the last month of most campaigns, the ground game become more important, as most voters have settled on their choice, and now need to be motivated to vote on Election Day. Swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania have moved significantly towards Clinton. That has everything to do with her advertising strategy and her ground game, and very little to do with debate performances. Trump’s live-mic comments help solidify Clinton’s support and make her path to victory more secure. And if, as many suspect, there are more revelations to come about Trump, the move in Clinton’s direction is even stronger.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
What candidate Trump needed was a masterful, nuanced debate performance and also one that does a better job of contrition than he displayed on the televised response on Friday night. That did not happen. The essential components in a political apology include admitting the wrongful behavior and asking for forgiveness. A successful strategy can only involve blame shifting if another party shares responsibility for the incident. Turning the tables and discussing Bill Clinton's past in order to deflect the candidate's critics did very little to help Trump's cause, and likely failed to sway undecided voters.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The open-mic video was a watershed moment for the Trump campaign. While some GOP leaders have abandoned Trump, others have attempted to separate the incident from Trump's potential as a candidate. The problem with the latter strategy is that the behavior in question has to be viewed by voters as an aberration in order to be forgiven. Trump's open-mic conversation and the likelihood of more videos to come would seem to reinforce the belief that the candidate's attitude toward women runs deep and is a basic component of the his character. Dismissing his transgressions as merely "locker-room talk" did nothing tonight to improve the noted gender gap in his support. That's not good news for the candidate.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
We never say never with a month to go in a campaign. Yet, if there is a path for victory for Donald Trump, it surely is a "long and winding road." All that is required of Clinton is to stay steady. For Trump--amid unprecedented denouncements and defections from his own party--he faces the herculean task of somehow changing the conversation, something that he did not accomplish tonight with his debate performance. How will we know that there is no longer a path to victory for Trump? Look for GOP leaders to switch strategies and shift resources and talking points to the down-ballot races. They will begin to argue the advantages of a divided government as the way in which the party can exert control over a Clinton presidency.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Help.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
His 2005 live mic moment is inexcusable and it will never be acceptable to talk about women that way. I'm disgusted by it and I won't spin or deflect from his words. I don't believe he physically abused women as I'm sure we'd know about that by now.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
As stated succinctly by our strategist, Hillary Clinton spent the night struggling to defend her failed record. Whether dodging why she deleted 33,000 emails from her secret server, invoking Abraham Lincoln to justify her own lies, or failing to explain her secret speeches to Wall Street, Hillary Clinton spent this debate running from the truth and proving she’s the poster child for a rigged system. The country is eager to break from a failed status quo that rewards D.C. insiders at the expense of ordinary Americans but that’s exactly what she is promising. Donald Trump rejected the politics of cronyism and made it clear he will bring strong leadership, prosperity and security to our country.
He has a path to victory but that path includes a close to perfect 4 weeks for Mr. Trump. She will continue to move her lips and lie but she still has an easier path because it is contingent on his actions or inactions.
Sam Bell, State Director, RI Progressive Democrats of America
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
No.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
Trump had lost the election before this latest scandal. The American people recognize that he is clearly unfit to serve as President. The only question now is whether any conservatives will continue to stand by him. It's time for Rhode Island's conservative politicians in both parties ("Democrat" Jimmy McLaughlin went to Trump's rally) to unite as one and denounce Trump.
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
There isn't a path to electoral victory for Trump, but there is probably a path towards the only kind of victory that matters to him--money. It probably is the case that this election has raised Trump's profile, and there may well be a way for him to cash in on his name. And that may well be all he was trying to do in the first place.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
No - he was rambling again, and he could not stay on point and answer questions succinctly. He combined different thoughts when asked a specific question.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The questions were awful and not getting to policies that people were actually interested in hearing. I was particularly insulted by the so called energy question...not climate change!
The question was obviously written by the friends of Exxon Mobile
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
Trump is on a path to victory - attention for him and his businesses. That was probably the only thing he really wanted out of this.
1. Did Trump's performance in the debate serve to help his candidacy?
Clinton clearly had Trump hearing what could have been his own political China Syndrome. If he had a saving moment, it was his ability to finally crystallize what most Americans have been thinking. Despite these grand plans, why has Hillary left behind an unadulterated trail of failure and chaos?
It is only there, not his muddled vision of foreign affairs, nor his xenophobic immigration policy, lies any hope of growth beyond the red meat of his cult of personality.
2. What was the role of the controversial live-mic comments?
The most startling revelation of the night came with Trump indicating he was going to employ the very same damage control technique that Bill Clinton pioneered - a classic apology, non-apology for his latest sexual peccadillo....followed by a launch headfirst into the preferred talking points
3. Is there a path to victory for Trump?
Path to victory? Probably not ... possibility of saving the GOP? Particularly after throwing his VP under the Middle East bus? Maybe.
