The Sunday Political Brunch - January 15, 2017

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor

 

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It is the Sunday in between Presidencies in the United States. It's time to look back on what President Obama accomplished, and forward to what President-elect Trump might accomplish down the road. We are in the “heart of the beast” of politics in the nation's capital for the next two weekends, so let's “brunch” on that:

“Making History” - I believe President Obama's most significant accomplishment is simply having been the first African-American President. That was no small task. His Presidency speaks volumes about the significant decrease in the racial divide in this country. That's right! I said “decrease,” despite all the hue and cry that racism is worse now than it was, say, forty years ago. The numbers back this conclusion up. Obama received more votes from white Americans in 2008 and 2012 than Al Gore received in 2000 or John Kerry, in 2004. The willingness of a majority of Americans to put then-Senator Obama in the White House was ground-breaking, historic and a sign of how far this nation has progressed with regard to race relations.

“Killing bin Laden” - Critics thought President Obama took too much credit for the killing of terrorist Osama bin Laden. But go back and look at Obama's statement in which he clearly and rightly credited U.S. Intelligence and military personnel for making it happen. Just remember that the final call is up to the Commander in Chief. If he doesn't give the order, the mission doesn't happen. That power can cut both ways, of course. President Jimmy Carter's attempt at a military rescue of the U.S. Hostages in Iran was a disaster and cost him dearly. President Obama made the right call on the right day by taking the right advice. Good riddance, bin Laden!

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“Obamacare” - Whether you support the Affordable Care Act, or not, the fact that it passed is a lesson in political willpower and persuasion. People as diverse as President Richard Nixon and Senator Ted Kennedy tried to craft a national health care plan, but couldn't find the votes. President Obama saw a rare opportunity in 2010 - with Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate - and took the risk. Its supporters “read the room,” counted the votes, and had enough to pass what's become known as “Obamacare.” You may love it; you may hate it; but it passed and became law. Even if it's repealed, the Republican majority promises to replace it with something better. Health care remains a political work in progress.

“Obama's Cuba Folly” - This one is probably the luck of good timing, rather than political skill; but, again, it happened on Obama's watch. President Obama opened up U.S. relations with Cuba; and, within a couple of years, Fidel Castro died. I've always thought that – no matter who was President of the United States when the Castros were gone - Cuba would emerge as a thriving democracy, with lots of U.S. Tourism and business investment there. It's coming; just you wait and see. I've even joked about a thriving Trump resort and casino on Cuba's shore. It could happen! In the 1860's, many laughed at Secretary of State William Seward's controversial purchase of Alaska, soon known as “Seward's Folly.” In a different way, opening relations with Cuba could be characterized as “Obama's Folly” - a controversial move which turned out to have huge advantages.

“Economic Ebb and Flow” - It's not fair, but Presidents get credit for economic good times (e.g. Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton) and blame for bad times (e.g. Carter, Bush I, and Bush II.) Truth be told, the Federal Reserve, private enterprise, innovation, and investment opportunity are the real drivers of the economy. As I've often said of the late 1990's, the economic boom was more about Bill Gates than about Bill Clinton. Yes, Presidents and Congress can nibble around the edges of the economy with tax and spending policies, but are small players. President Obama – whether he deserves it or not – will get credit for helping move the disastrous 2008 economy to where we are today.

“Midterm Report Cards” - Another way to evaluate a Presidency is to look at what happens in the midterm elections. In the early midterms of 2009, Republicans elected governors in New Jersey and Virginia. In 2010, the GOP seized control of the U.S. House on the heels of Obamacare and, in 2014, took control of the Senate under the same impetus. Yes, President Obama won a second term in 2012, but his party was roundly rejected again in 2016 at both the state and national levels. One of Obama's legacies is that – other than his own inspiring campaign in 2008 – his agenda had no coattail effects for his party down ballot. In a sense, he got himself elected, but no one else.

“Promises Made; Promises Not Kept” - If you search deep into my blog archives, you will find my predictions about political promises made in 2008. At the time, Senator Obama campaigned on closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, but I predicted it would never happen. Why didn't he follow through? Well, I suspect that when he started getting daily intelligence briefings, he had an “Oh my God” moment! It's one thing to campaign to become President; it's another to actually have the job. Some of the terrorism and national defense threats must be jaw-dropping when you first see them, especially when you had planned to close Guantanamo.

“Path for Trump” - Here is my prediction for President Trump: Even though he promised to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, my bet is that it never happens. A fence or wall is old-school. Would China build a Great Wall today? You can build electronic and computerized surveillance, with infra-red cameras and all kinds of technology, plus you can double the number of border patrol and immigration agents. Mexico says it won't pay for the wall, and Congress is unlikely to make U.S. taxpayers foot the bill. More realistic measures include automatic deportation of immigrant criminals, who are here in sanctuary cities and elsewhere. Immigration reform is most likely to work as eight or nine separate bills concerning separate issues, rather than trying to pass one big, all-encompassing immigration bill.

Give us your report card for President Obama, by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: Trump’s Win - What Does it Mean for Rhode Island?

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Jennifer Duffy

Cook Report

"We don't really know what a Trump presidency means for the nation, never mind the smallest state.  One of the unintended consequences of last night's results is that Sen. Jack Reed won't be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  Chalk that up as a loss for RI."

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Pam Gencarella

Head of Ocean State Taxpayers' Association

"Trump’s win means that his signature issue, illegal immigration, could have a big impact on RI, hopefully reversing our course as a sanctuary state and saving the state taxpayer millions of dollars.  While we agree with his 'repeal and replace' Obamacare stance, we have no idea what that means to the RI debacle known as UHIP.  It is not a stretch to believe that federal funding for this kind of system will be off the table so, will RI be stuck with this massively expensive system that still doesn’t work and that is expected to cost another $124 million to fix?  

Trump's belief that there is significant fraud in the Food Stamp program and the policies that may come from that belief could have a negative impact on RI's local economy since there are businesses in certain cities that rely heavily on this program, fraud and all. On the upside, we may be able to ditch the UHIP program if there is significantly less need for processing welfare program requests (ie. Medicaid and food stamps) resulting from fewer illegal immigrants and less fraud.  While we are ambivalent about his touted child care policies, if enacted, it may force our legislators to revisit the ever growing state cost of subsidies in this area and possibly reduce the fraud and abuse in this system." 

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Kay Israel

Professor at Rhode Island College

"With a Republican President and Congress, Rhode Island will probably be excluded from the 'fruits of victory."  

The congressional delegation will be able to vocally make their presence felt, but in the long term it's more symbolic than substantive.  

For Rhode Island it's a matter of holding on and waiting until '18 or '20 and a surge in Democratic influence."

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Jennifer Lawless

Professor at American University

"The RI congressional delegation just became even less powerful than it was. With unified government, Trump doesn’t need to quell Democrats’ concerns or acquiesce because he’s worried about a Democratically-controlled Senate.

His appointments will reflect that. His executive orders will affect that. And the conservative policy agenda he puts forward will affect that."

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Len Lardaro

Professor at University of Rhode Island

"Well there's a few things -- because there's not going to be gridlock, that's a big difference if it had been Hillary and a GOP Congress, in which nothing would got done. We'll at least get a half a billion in infrastructure that's going to pass which will have an impact.

I think you'll see there will be reduced reliance on government nationally -- and that's where we'll stick out like sore thumb. We've relied way too much on government -- and our government is highly inefficient and ineffective.  Maybe, just maybe, in this who cycle of things we might be forced to be small and more efficient for once.

A couple of other things -- interest rates jumped. The one to follow is the ten year government bond rate -- which is tied to mortgages. It went from 1.7% to 2.05% in one day. The point is -- if the ten year stays high, mortgage rates will start going higher -- and in the short time people will run to re-finance. 

That's the short term impact -- but then if rates stay hight, that will make mortgages more out of reach. And we just passed a bond issue to limit open space -- housing has limited upside here.
The next thing -- the Fed Reserve will go ahead with tightening next month. A strong dollar will hurt manufacturing. When the dollar is strong our exports become more expensive overseas. 

Our goods production sector -- manufacturing and construction -- in the near term will do a little better, but as time goes on will be more limited. But something you won't hear, is there are lags in fiscal policy, of six months to year. So we won't really see the effects until the third our fourth quarter of 2017, going into 2018."
 

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Mike Stenhouse

RI Center for Freedon and Prosperity

"As the unbelievable turned into reality this morning, it struck me that the presidential election was not really all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It was about a fed-up people, revolting against a corrupt system - the "beast" - that relentlessly favors insiders. Hillary personified the beast, while Donald personified the slayer.

Sadly, based on election results in our state, Rhode Island's version of the beast lives on. I fear our political class has not learned the lessons from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump movements - and will continue with their government-centric, anti-family, anti-business status quo."

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Kristina Contreras Fox

VP of Young Democrats of America

"A Trump Presidency means the validation of the ugliest part of America. In RI, as with the rest of the country, the hammer of his hatred will fall hardest on minority communities. Being a blue state doesn't make us immune from this danger.

Trump won over 35% (39.5) of the vote here! We need to look in the mirror, and not lie about what the reflection shows us. No more hiding underneath a blue blanket. I expect those who claim Democratic values to be true to those values. The gulf between words and actions have turned into fertile ground for Trump's message to grow here in RI. If you call yourself a Democrat, if you claim to stand in opposition to Trump, now is the time to prove it. Show up and fight back."
 

 

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