“The Sunday Political Brunch”—November 27, 2016

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor

 

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It’s been a crazy, topsy-turvy political year, that I don’t think anyone could have predicted. Something tells me the unsettled political business – for better, or for worse – is not over yet! Let’s brunch on that this week:

“Cuba” – At press time came word of the death of Cuban leader Fidel Castro. In my lifetime, there have 11 U.S. Presidents, from Eisenhower to Obama, yet Cuba has had only one Fidel Castro (pictured above with former President Jimmy Carter in 2002). Yes, his brother Raul has been a figure-head the past few years, but you knew who ran the show. The great singer Sam Cooke had a big hit song, “A Change is Gonna Come.” I can hear it playing now. It will be fascinating to watch Cuba emerge from the third-world, into a thriving, vibrant Western economy. I wonder if the Trump Company will build a resort casino there? I’d bet on it!

“Hillary Clinton First” -- She lost the Electoral College, but she won the popular vote and I think the significance should be noted. A majority of the U.S. population said, “We have no hesitation of electing a woman to be President.” It signaled that the public has relatively little gender-bias left. She probably won’t be the first female President, but maybe Democrat Hillary Clinton just paved the way for a Republican President Nikki Haley, or Democratic President Maggie Hassan. Politics works in mysterious ways. Haley – the South Carolina Governor – was just nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

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“Speaking of Which” – There was an article trending in the days after the election titled, “Never underestimate how much America hates women,” Really? Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two million ballots. Nine new women were elected to the House of Representatives (six Democrats; three Republicans). For the first time ever, the U.S. Senate will have 21 women (16 Democrats and five Republicans). President-elect Trump has named three women to Cabinet, or cabinet-level posts, with many more slots to be filled. Six U.S. Governors are women. Parity across the board? Certainly not yet, but the numbers keep increasing. The Supreme Court could have four female Justices by spring. To say, “America hates women,” is just rhetorical nonsense.

“Do-Over 2020?” – It’s odd to speculate, but I do not think Hillary Clinton is done. Four years from now she’ll be 73, but if she is in good health, she could be a viable candidate again. First, a lot depends on Trump’s successes or failures. Second, the Clintons love a fight! Yes, she lost in 2008 and 2016, but would the Clintons dare all odds and try again in 2020? Health permitting, I say yes. These are not people who walk quietly into the night. Think Ronald Reagan barely losing the GOP nomination in 1976, only to come roaring back in 1980 to oust President Carter, who had a very bad four-year tenure. The Clintons are that calculating.

“Thanksgiving Leftovers” – Green Party Candidate Jill Stein is trying to raise over seven-million dollars to conduct recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. She and others believe some voting machines may have been hacked, thus the inquiry. The money is being raised privately, as candidates - not taxpayers - must foot the bill. Why not? If it helps clear the air and remove any lingering doubts about the election, then so be it.

“A Familiar Name” – Last week I talked about a lot of fellow Wisconsinites who’ve risen to national political prominence, but I forgot one. Rep.-Elect Liz Cheney (R-WY), is taking her dad’s old seat in the House. But former Vice President Cheney’s daughter was actually born in Madison when her mom and dad were graduate students at the University of Wisconsin. Cheers, to another “Cheesehead!”

“Be Careful What You Wish For” – A lot of Republicans are excited about the GOP holding the White House, the House, and the Senate at the same time. While that may sound like “Kumbaya,” just remember in 1976 and 1992, Democrats won all three prizes, and proceeded to have an intra-party war over things such as national health care. The last time the GOP held all three was from 2003 to 2005, but it was a highly unstable time politically as control of both the House and Senate were shifting back and forth, and not a lot got done. Contrast that with 1996 when Democrats had the White House and Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress and a lot got done. Divided government is often the better model to watch.

“Not the End of the World!” – There is certainly more anxiety after this election than any other in my lifetime (including 2000). But our country has never imploded, not even after the Civil War. Oddly enough it was President Obama who advocated for change when the electorate did not like it. In 2013, after a government shutdown was resolved, he said to Republicans, “You don’t like a particular policy or a particular president? Then argue for your position. Go out there and win an election. Push to change it.” In 2014, the GOP did just that, taking back control of the Senate, and in 2016 the White House. Change happens; the ebb and flow of democracy; so, Democrats will have their day in the sun again, maybe in 2018, or 2020, or later.

“2017 Elections” – I always love the odd-year elections. New Jersey and Virginia are the only states that have statewide elections in the off years. Incumbents Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), are termed out. Both are likely to seek higher office. Who takes their seats in each State House should be very competitive and fun to watch! And it gives political junkies something to chatter about in an odd-numbered year!

Who do you see as an up-and-coming female candidate in either party? Just share your comments by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: Winners and Losers - 2016 Election

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Winner

Joe Trillo and John DePetro

While most Republicans in Rhode Island were hiding in the bushes, Trillo (the former GOP lawmaker) and DePetro (the WPRO talk show host) were loyal advocates for Donald Trump from the beginning and through the rough spots.

Both could be big winners and could score slots with the administration -- want to go to the White House? You now know the rings you need to kiss.

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Winner

Donald Trump, President of the United States

The most unlikely candidate pulled off the biggest victory in Presidential history. The billionaire developer was underestimated which set forth much of his success during the primaries and in the election. The next four years will never be dull.   

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Winner

General Michael Flynn

The Rhode Island native and URI grad will have a major roll in the Trump Administration and America's foreign policy. As top GOP consultant Ian Prior wrote in GoLocal in July about Flynn when he was on the VP shortlist:

Of course, there are any number of national security experts that can prosecute the case against Hillary Clinton, but Flynn is unique. He is a registered Democrat that was appointed by President Obama in 2012 to serve as Director of the DIA. Even more importantly, he resigned two years later over what he believed to be a misguided approach by the administration as it concerned ISIS.

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Loser

Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State

This year's election was one of the the most mismanaged in modern Rhode Island history. First, the Chief-of Staff of the Secretary of State's office gets into a battle with talk show host John DePetro on social media. The action seemed inappropriate at best for the head of the office administering the election.

Then, the state's Presidential election hit a number of rough spots with faulty equipment and a failed repair and triage system that lead to long lines and frustration in a number of communities across the state.

The job of Secretary of State has three major components:

1) Take care of the State's achieves

2) Maintain a database of businesses

3) Run the state's elections

She needs to assure voters that she understands the problems and correct the mistakes.

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Loser

Brandon Bell, GOP Chair

Both Democratic Congressional candidates won big. The GOP had a net loss in the legislature.

Bell went all in on taking out Speaker Nick Mattiello -- a pro-business legislator, instead of recruiting a large number of competitive candidates. If Mattiello delivers of paper ballots like his campaign claims - Bell will have wildly miscalculated at every level and will have left the GOP a weaker party.

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Losers

Cicilline and Langevin

A Trump win greatly increases the likelihood that Rhode Island will lose a Congressional seat in the next federal redistricting. Rhode Island will be more like Vermont and Delaware -- two Senators and just one House member. This will mean a big loss for Rhode Island's clout in D.C.

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Winner

Allan Fung, Republican Mayor of Cranston

Fung had just the kind of night he wanted to have. He ran up big numbers against Democrat Mike Sepe and put parkinggate in his proverbial rear window.

The margin of victory is impressive -- Fung ran up 68% of the vote and has established himself as one of the top Republicans in Rhode Island.

Now, the personable Fung is the GOP frontrunner to challenge Raimondo as it does not look like she is going to Washington, D.C. now.

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Loser

RI's Broken Technology Infrastructure 

No money, no car, and no vote.

Lets see if we got this right. You have to wait in line to vote in some locations for as much as two hours because not enough scanners were deployed. Some days you can't register your car because the Hewlett-Packard system is not deployed and the state is now suing the company. And, tens of thousands of folks most in need have not been able to get their most critical benefits (or the from benefits) because the UHIP technology was flawed despite hundreds of millions being spent. 

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Winner

Speaker of the House, Nick Mattiello

If Mattiello does hold on to his House seat, he will be a stronger Speaker than ever before. He has added more Democrats to his majority and was the architect to many of the Democrats victories. 

The simmering stress between Mattiello and Raimondo will turn into a vibrant boil over during the next two years. Raimondo was no help to Mattiello or House members -- they had to clean up for her truck tolls and absorb her unwillingness to release 38 Studios documents.

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Loser

Gina Raimondo, Governor

Raimondo's options and national political network just took a major blow. No longer can Raimondo jump to the Clinton Administration to avoid a difficult reelection. Moreover, national Democratic connections are now in Siberia as the Presidency, the House and the Senate are all in Republican hands.

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Loser

Peter F. Neronha United States Attorney District of Rhode Island 

In a short period, it is highly likely the Neronha and a few other high profile political appointees will be replaced by the Trump White House. 

The impact of Ray Gallison and others is an unknown.

 

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