“The Sunday Political Brunch”—December 25, 2016

Sunday, December 25, 2016

Mark Curtis, GoLocal Contributor

 

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Merry Christmas, everyone! This Christmas I was thinking about what gifts we need to give to political folk after this crazy election season. I’m playing Santa Claus this year, so let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Trump’s Tinsel” – For Donald Trump, we wish the gift of humility. He’s going to be President, so maybe he can temper some of his supreme confidence (that some think is pure arrogance). Trump would be wise to know where his expertise lies (business and economics) and where his weaknesses are (military and foreign affairs). Saying he does not need the daily intelligence briefings is reckless and cavalier. Those generals and admirals will prove invaluable to him, so he needs to listen to them.

“Clinton’s Advent” – If Hillary Clinton is to have one more shot at the White House, she needs two things: an ineffective Trump, and her own good health. I don’t wish any President to fail - since if the leader fails, the nation falters – so we wish Mrs. Clinton good health should she wish to take another shot in 2020. This is not an endorsement, but rather an acknowledgment that I think she has one more chance, if the stars align. Still, convincing her own party to give her that chance will be tough.

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“National Press Corps” – For my brethren in the press corps, I send the gift of free airline tickets anywhere outside of the beltway, just not on the campaign plane or bus. The problem with the traveling press corps (and I have many friends in it) is that they are kept inside the campaign bubble. Yes, they go to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; but when the campaign stop is over they are back on the plane and gone. They rarely – if ever – get to speak with ordinary people and small business owners in American cities and towns. This is the main reason why so many pundits got this election wrong and never took Trump seriously. Go talk to average folks of all creeds and colors, and you’ll get the pulse of the nation!

“Biden’s Bidding” – Ditto from the Hillary Clinton gifts above. I am certain that Biden now wishes he had run in 2016. He has hinted he may run in 2020; but - as in the case of Clinton - he needs a Trump flop and for his own health to hold. Again, we wish Vice President Biden good health should he have the “fire-in-the-belly” to run one more time.

“Alec’s Antics” – For actor Alec Baldwin, we wish a four-year supply of hair spray. His Saturday Night Live impersonation of Donald Trump is a riot. (The woman who does Hillary Clinton is good, too, though I suspect that character will fade. Larry David as Bernie Sanders was the best of all.) I know Trump doesn’t like how Baldwin mimics him, but I hope the President-elect develops a better since of humor about it. Former President George H.W. Bush at first did not like impersonation that comedian Dana Carvey did of him, but later invited Carvey to the Bush White House to entertain the First Family. Remember, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery!

“Speaker’s Spoken” – For House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), we wish the Green Bay Packers will give him a football helmet. He’ll need it! Ryan is in a tough spot. He will be under pressure to run Trump’s agenda through the House, where a lot of Republican members owe Trump no favors (unlike the Senate, where GOP control was sustained by Trump’s coattails). Trump and Ryan have had a stormy relationship, although last week in Wisconsin at his thank-you rally with Ryan, Trump said of Ryan: “He’s like a fine wine. Every day I appreciate his genius more and more.” We’ll see.

“You Can’t Get There from Here” – For the Democratic Party, your gift is a Rand McNally Atlas, or maybe the more modern MapQuest, or Google Maps. The Democrats didn’t have a math problem this year (as they won the popular vote); but rather they had a map problem, because not enough of those votes were in the right places to win the Electoral College. It was almost assumed the Democrats would win Wisconsin and Michigan, so the Clinton-Caine campaign spent relatively little time there when compared to Trump-Pence. Speaking of which, Trump’s pick of a “rust belt” governor in Pence now looks brilliant, because he’s a guy that knows why voters in his region are so upset about the economy

“Kumbaya” – For the Republican Party, we send the gift of sheet music for the song “Kumbaya,” as they may need it. In 1976 and 1992, Democrats sent a new President to Washington to join a House and Senate where they already held strong majorities. In both cases, it was a disaster. Intraparty fighting over things such as foreign affairs and health care reform spelled disaster. Democrats formed a circular firing squad and mortally wounded their own party. In 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter and also swept control of the Senate. In 1994, the GOP took control of both the House and Senate for the first time in forty years. Republicans may be gloating now, but if the White House and Congress don’t get along, watch out!

“Wishes for Success” – To both parties and especially to the new President and the new leaders in Congress, I send a sincere wish for success. The public is in a foul mood. People want their borders fixed, with organized and legal immigration. Voters want the economy to improve – and not just for those at the very top. In recent years, I’ve lived in two economically- depressed states: Rhode Island and West Virginia. Both have great colleges and universities, but few jobs. The most common complaint I hear from parents is that “Our biggest state export is our kids!” One is a solidly blue state, the other now rock-rib red. Let’s hope our lawmakers will work together to help all economically-depressed areas – such as Rhode Island, West Virginia, and others – prosper again.

What gifts would you give politicians this year? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: Trump’s Win - What Does it Mean for Rhode Island?

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Jennifer Duffy

Cook Report

"We don't really know what a Trump presidency means for the nation, never mind the smallest state.  One of the unintended consequences of last night's results is that Sen. Jack Reed won't be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  Chalk that up as a loss for RI."

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Pam Gencarella

Head of Ocean State Taxpayers' Association

"Trump’s win means that his signature issue, illegal immigration, could have a big impact on RI, hopefully reversing our course as a sanctuary state and saving the state taxpayer millions of dollars.  While we agree with his 'repeal and replace' Obamacare stance, we have no idea what that means to the RI debacle known as UHIP.  It is not a stretch to believe that federal funding for this kind of system will be off the table so, will RI be stuck with this massively expensive system that still doesn’t work and that is expected to cost another $124 million to fix?  

Trump's belief that there is significant fraud in the Food Stamp program and the policies that may come from that belief could have a negative impact on RI's local economy since there are businesses in certain cities that rely heavily on this program, fraud and all. On the upside, we may be able to ditch the UHIP program if there is significantly less need for processing welfare program requests (ie. Medicaid and food stamps) resulting from fewer illegal immigrants and less fraud.  While we are ambivalent about his touted child care policies, if enacted, it may force our legislators to revisit the ever growing state cost of subsidies in this area and possibly reduce the fraud and abuse in this system." 

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Kay Israel

Professor at Rhode Island College

"With a Republican President and Congress, Rhode Island will probably be excluded from the 'fruits of victory."  

The congressional delegation will be able to vocally make their presence felt, but in the long term it's more symbolic than substantive.  

For Rhode Island it's a matter of holding on and waiting until '18 or '20 and a surge in Democratic influence."

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Jennifer Lawless

Professor at American University

"The RI congressional delegation just became even less powerful than it was. With unified government, Trump doesn’t need to quell Democrats’ concerns or acquiesce because he’s worried about a Democratically-controlled Senate.

His appointments will reflect that. His executive orders will affect that. And the conservative policy agenda he puts forward will affect that."

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Len Lardaro

Professor at University of Rhode Island

"Well there's a few things -- because there's not going to be gridlock, that's a big difference if it had been Hillary and a GOP Congress, in which nothing would got done. We'll at least get a half a billion in infrastructure that's going to pass which will have an impact.

I think you'll see there will be reduced reliance on government nationally -- and that's where we'll stick out like sore thumb. We've relied way too much on government -- and our government is highly inefficient and ineffective.  Maybe, just maybe, in this who cycle of things we might be forced to be small and more efficient for once.

A couple of other things -- interest rates jumped. The one to follow is the ten year government bond rate -- which is tied to mortgages. It went from 1.7% to 2.05% in one day. The point is -- if the ten year stays high, mortgage rates will start going higher -- and in the short time people will run to re-finance. 

That's the short term impact -- but then if rates stay hight, that will make mortgages more out of reach. And we just passed a bond issue to limit open space -- housing has limited upside here.
The next thing -- the Fed Reserve will go ahead with tightening next month. A strong dollar will hurt manufacturing. When the dollar is strong our exports become more expensive overseas. 

Our goods production sector -- manufacturing and construction -- in the near term will do a little better, but as time goes on will be more limited. But something you won't hear, is there are lags in fiscal policy, of six months to year. So we won't really see the effects until the third our fourth quarter of 2017, going into 2018."
 

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Mike Stenhouse

RI Center for Freedon and Prosperity

"As the unbelievable turned into reality this morning, it struck me that the presidential election was not really all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It was about a fed-up people, revolting against a corrupt system - the "beast" - that relentlessly favors insiders. Hillary personified the beast, while Donald personified the slayer.

Sadly, based on election results in our state, Rhode Island's version of the beast lives on. I fear our political class has not learned the lessons from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump movements - and will continue with their government-centric, anti-family, anti-business status quo."

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Kristina Contreras Fox

VP of Young Democrats of America

"A Trump Presidency means the validation of the ugliest part of America. In RI, as with the rest of the country, the hammer of his hatred will fall hardest on minority communities. Being a blue state doesn't make us immune from this danger.

Trump won over 35% (39.5) of the vote here! We need to look in the mirror, and not lie about what the reflection shows us. No more hiding underneath a blue blanket. I expect those who claim Democratic values to be true to those values. The gulf between words and actions have turned into fertile ground for Trump's message to grow here in RI. If you call yourself a Democrat, if you claim to stand in opposition to Trump, now is the time to prove it. Show up and fight back."
 

 

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