Handicapping the 2024 GOP Presidential Field – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, October 17, 2021

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: White House

I’m trying not to get out ahead of my skis. I’ve talked a lot about the 2022 midterm elections and their significance next year, but how they turn out may have a direct impact on the 2024 presidential campaign and who may or may not run. Midterm elections, depending on how they go, can whittle a presidential field of candidates, or greatly expand it. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Trumpeting Trump” – I believe you must assume that former President Donald Trump will try to mount a comeback. He’s traveling; he’s holding rallies; and he’s being critical of both the Biden administration and the Republican establishment. For now, I say he’s in, and will be a force to be reckoned with. Why? He’s running a slate of House and Senate “Trump Endorsed” candidates. The GOP needs a net gain of just one seat to retake the Senate; and a net loss of three House seats from the Democrats to retake control of the lower chamber. If Trump’s slate wins either, or both, of those goals, it would be hard to deny Trump the 2024 presidential nomination. I say he’s in.

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“Ron DeSantis” – Several early, key polls rate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida as the chief challenger to Trump. First, they are allies, but honestly, folks, when the political opportunity presents itself, all loyalties can get tossed out the window. Obviously, a key for DeSantis is winning reelection in 2022. Failure to win a second term could cripple him on the national stage, especially being from the state with the third-largest number of Electoral College votes. He’s only in his early 40s so if this is not his time, there are opportunities down the road. Still, he’s been a lightning rod in Florida on COVID-19 policies. Some people love him; some people don’t. How the pandemic plays out under his watch, and his perceived success or failure, is key.

 

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Former Vice President Mike Pence

“Mike Pence” – Trump and his former vice-president try to paint their relationship as still cordial, and that they talk at least once a week. But insiders in-the-know tell me the relationship is a lot frostier. Pence was one of the people targeted January 6th, and could have easily been killed. My gut says his allegiance to the U.S. Constitution and country is a lot stronger than his allegiance to Trump. Pence is the true conservative here. But he will have to cut ties and be his own man if he wants to step out of Trump’s shadow. He may have to, in fact, go on the attack against Trump over January 6th. My bet? Pence is a long shot.

 

“Nikki Haley” – This is whom I’d peg as a top prospect right now. She’s been governor and she has been the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She was tougher than Trump on Iran and other U.S. enemies, or at least she was given the voice to take the fight center stage. She has the conservative credentials, but can also expand the party fold by being a minority female. We could have a first here: If Biden bows out (and as I’ve said here, I think ‘he’s one and done’), then you’d have the potential of Southwest Asian American Haley (R) South Carolina, facing Southwest Asian & African American Kamala Harris (D) California in the 2024 election. Who saw that coming? Could happen! And wouldn’t that be a nice reflection on the possibilities this nation offers. Despite our flaws and mistakes, our ability to fix and change has no parallel.

 

“John Kasich” – My quandary about former Congressman and Governor Kasich (R-Ohio) is, has he made himself invisible? I cover Ohio politics on a regular basis and it’s as if he has vanished. Maybe that’s a good strategy like Muhammad Ali’s famous “rope-a-dope” early on in boxing matches, luring his opponents into a sense of overconfidence and invincibility, only to throw the knockout punch in the late rounds. To me, Kasich is still viable. He’s got to sell himself as bipartisan and being able to work with the other side, as when he joined with then-President Bill Clinton, House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and others to pass the first balanced U.S. budget in decades. If there is a “sleeper” in the race, it’s Kasich as he can claim victories that others can’t.

 

“Jeb Bush” – He took a beating from Donald Trump in 2016, but don’t ever count the Bush family out, as it’s now actively in its fourth generation of American political service (as are the Kennedys on the other side of the aisle). In short, that makes them hard to beat, and if you cross them there can be hell to pay. Jeb’s son, Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, is running for Texas Attorney General against a Trump-backed opponent. Again, it will give the race national attention. But as a two-term governor of Florida, with a family name that is nationally held in high regard, Jeb still has a shot at the White House. 2024, though, is likely his last chance. Honestly, his bi-racial son George P. Bush, may have an even better chance down the road. Still, Jeb’s got a shot.

 

“Mike Pompeo” – As with almost everyone on this list, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s name get tossed into the mix. Pompeo was once a Trump critic who turned supporter. He served six years in the House of Representatives from Kansas. He’s a West Point grad who rose to Captain the U.S Army, and he’s a Harvard Law School graduate. He served as CIA Director for a year under Trump as well. But Pompeo was also criticized by career State Department employees for being overbearing and tough (aka, a bully). It all cuts both ways. The bottom line is that a lengthy and diverse resume can help the politically ambitious. Despite his high profile, he’s still not a household name. I’d rate him a long shot.

 

For whom are you supporting for president in 2024, or are you just “kicking the tires” and undecided and evaluating, as we are a long way away? That’s kind of where I am. I want to see how all of them perform on the public stage the next two years first! Just share your opinion by clicking the comment button!

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media Group TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and all its affiliates.

 

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