“The Sunday Political Brunch”—December 4, 2016

Sunday, December 04, 2016

Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor

 

View Larger +

Okay, I know once I say this, most of my readers are going to want to club me, but here I go! It’s time to start handicapping Presidential candidates for 2020. We’ll start with Democrats this week, and follow jp with the Republicans next week. I know! I know! We just finished an election, but the race to New Hampshire is already on! Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Third Time the Charm?” – A lot about who steps up to challenge President Trump in four years will depend on how well his first term goes. If it has big problems, don’t count Hillary Clinton out for an “I told you so” rematch. If her health is good (and I know she’ll be 73 – but we’re all living longer), I firmly believe she’s viable for one more election cycle. But, if Trump does well, she may have to give her final shot a pass.

“Another Famous Name” – I think a lot of the competition will be between new faces and the party’s old guard. Having said that, I believe Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) kind of fits in both groups. Plenty of party old-timers will be sentimental for his dad; yet many of the party’s youngest voters will have no memory of Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY). Andrew has an impressive resume, including a Presidential Cabinet slot and having been New York Attorney General, before getting the state’s top job. At age 58, he’s “young enough," yet “old enough" to be viable in four years and beyond.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

“Gavin, Who?” – Back in 1999, when I first started working as a reporter in San Francisco, people were touting a young County Supervisor named Gavin Newsom as eventual Presidential fodder. I liked Gavin, but I scoffed. He was a baby-faced 31-year-old at that time – smart and sincere – but, I thought the idea was nuts. Fast forward. He is now Lt. Governor of California and could become Governor in 2018. The one-time most-eligible bachelor now has a beautiful wife and kids, and they look like they fell out of a Kennedy photo album. Images matter, folks! On the plus - and the minus side - he is the person most responsible for same-sex marriage becoming legal in the United States. As Mayor oF San Francisco, he made a bold - yet controversial - move in favor of same-sex marriage, and he won.

“The Warren Report” – Much of what happens to the Democratic Party depends on whether it veers far, liberal left, or tries to have a more centrist philosophy. The odd-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia could be a key, but the real test will be in the 2018 mid-term Congressional and state elections. Again, much of this hinges on Trump’s success or failure. But Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) remains very popular in her party’s liberal wing. She is the heir to the Bernie Sanders movement, the power of which should not be underestimated. She’s viable.

“Raising Kaine” – Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) is very viable. By his own admission, he’s boring and dull as dirt; but if you are looking for competency, he may be the man. Kaine has been a Mayor, a Governor, and a Senator – plus a Vice Presidential nominee. Not many people can say that. He was also chairman of the Democratic National Committee, so he has the potential to tap into the party’s deep purse. On the downside, he could be the bland, Walter Mondale-like nominee matched against a show-biz more Ronald Reagan-like charmer.
That Mondale lost in 1984. Trump – like Reagan – will be hard to beat if his first term goes as well as that of “The Gipper!”

“My, Oh My, O’Malley” – He did not catch fire in the Democratic primaries, but I think former Governor Martin O’Malley (D-MD) still has a shot at the White House. In hindsight, he should have run for U.S. Senate in 2016, instead of his ill-fated Presidential campaign. He, too, has been a big-city Mayor and Governor, and the Senate would have rounded out his resume like Tim Kaine’s. In his early 50s, O’Malley has a few more election cycles to play with.

“Si, Senor!” – I predicted that the Hispanic vote would be a huge factor in the outcome of the 2016 election, just as it had been for the previous three Presidential elections, but I was wrong. Trump lost the Latin vote badly, yet still won the Electoral College. I think it’s an anomaly, unlikely to be repeated. That said, I believe the Castro brothers from Texas will emerge as viable candidates – if not in 2020, then beyond. Julian Castro is Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, after having served as Mayor of San Antonio. His 42-year-old twin brother, Joaquin, has been in Congress going on three terms. Yes, they’re young, but keep them on the radar screen.

“Rethinking the Map” – I have said many times that I hate the Red State v. Blue State mentality that dominates my journalistic profession. Let me be blunt: It’s junk-food for the politically simple-minded! In 2008, Barack Obama challenged conventional wisdom and said, “We can win in the red-states of North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana,” and he did. In 2016, Donald Trump said, “We can win in the blue-states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” and he did. People thought both men were off their rockers, yet both won with those states. So when I mention the Castro twins above, the question is whether they can win Texas, Arizona, and Georgia – three traditional red-states with booming Hispanic populations? In reality, the Electoral College map is like a giant chess board!

Who do you support for President in 2020? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

Related Slideshow: Winners and Losers - 2016 Election

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Joe Trillo and John DePetro

While most Republicans in Rhode Island were hiding in the bushes, Trillo (the former GOP lawmaker) and DePetro (the WPRO talk show host) were loyal advocates for Donald Trump from the beginning and through the rough spots.

Both could be big winners and could score slots with the administration -- want to go to the White House? You now know the rings you need to kiss.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Donald Trump, President of the United States

The most unlikely candidate pulled off the biggest victory in Presidential history. The billionaire developer was underestimated which set forth much of his success during the primaries and in the election. The next four years will never be dull.   

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

General Michael Flynn

The Rhode Island native and URI grad will have a major roll in the Trump Administration and America's foreign policy. As top GOP consultant Ian Prior wrote in GoLocal in July about Flynn when he was on the VP shortlist:

Of course, there are any number of national security experts that can prosecute the case against Hillary Clinton, but Flynn is unique. He is a registered Democrat that was appointed by President Obama in 2012 to serve as Director of the DIA. Even more importantly, he resigned two years later over what he believed to be a misguided approach by the administration as it concerned ISIS.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State

This year's election was one of the the most mismanaged in modern Rhode Island history. First, the Chief-of Staff of the Secretary of State's office gets into a battle with talk show host John DePetro on social media. The action seemed inappropriate at best for the head of the office administering the election.

Then, the state's Presidential election hit a number of rough spots with faulty equipment and a failed repair and triage system that lead to long lines and frustration in a number of communities across the state.

The job of Secretary of State has three major components:

1) Take care of the State's achieves

2) Maintain a database of businesses

3) Run the state's elections

She needs to assure voters that she understands the problems and correct the mistakes.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Brandon Bell, GOP Chair

Both Democratic Congressional candidates won big. The GOP had a net loss in the legislature.

Bell went all in on taking out Speaker Nick Mattiello -- a pro-business legislator, instead of recruiting a large number of competitive candidates. If Mattiello delivers of paper ballots like his campaign claims - Bell will have wildly miscalculated at every level and will have left the GOP a weaker party.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Losers

Cicilline and Langevin

A Trump win greatly increases the likelihood that Rhode Island will lose a Congressional seat in the next federal redistricting. Rhode Island will be more like Vermont and Delaware -- two Senators and just one House member. This will mean a big loss for Rhode Island's clout in D.C.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Allan Fung, Republican Mayor of Cranston

Fung had just the kind of night he wanted to have. He ran up big numbers against Democrat Mike Sepe and put parkinggate in his proverbial rear window.

The margin of victory is impressive -- Fung ran up 68% of the vote and has established himself as one of the top Republicans in Rhode Island.

Now, the personable Fung is the GOP frontrunner to challenge Raimondo as it does not look like she is going to Washington, D.C. now.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

RI's Broken Technology Infrastructure 

No money, no car, and no vote.

Lets see if we got this right. You have to wait in line to vote in some locations for as much as two hours because not enough scanners were deployed. Some days you can't register your car because the Hewlett-Packard system is not deployed and the state is now suing the company. And, tens of thousands of folks most in need have not been able to get their most critical benefits (or the from benefits) because the UHIP technology was flawed despite hundreds of millions being spent. 

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Speaker of the House, Nick Mattiello

If Mattiello does hold on to his House seat, he will be a stronger Speaker than ever before. He has added more Democrats to his majority and was the architect to many of the Democrats victories. 

The simmering stress between Mattiello and Raimondo will turn into a vibrant boil over during the next two years. Raimondo was no help to Mattiello or House members -- they had to clean up for her truck tolls and absorb her unwillingness to release 38 Studios documents.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Gina Raimondo, Governor

Raimondo's options and national political network just took a major blow. No longer can Raimondo jump to the Clinton Administration to avoid a difficult reelection. Moreover, national Democratic connections are now in Siberia as the Presidency, the House and the Senate are all in Republican hands.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Peter F. Neronha United States Attorney District of Rhode Island 

In a short period, it is highly likely the Neronha and a few other high profile political appointees will be replaced by the Trump White House. 

The impact of Ray Gallison and others is an unknown.

 

Related Articles

 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook