The Georgia Political Smackdown 2021 – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—January 10, 2021
Sunday, January 10, 2021
Not since upstart Governor Jimmy Carter (D) Georgia won the White House in 1976 has the Peach State played such a critical position in American politics. While the Deep South went from solid conservative blue in the late 1980s to solid conservative red, there have been splotches of “purple” popping up here and there. A lot of it has to do with the southern migration of Northeastern and Midwestern voters for retirement or jobs. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.
“If You Build It, They Will Come” – In the 1970s and 80s living in Wisconsin, I noticed a fascinating trend. People who yearly vacationed in Florida decided to move there to work or retire full-time. A lot of it was caused by factory closings, layoffs and a search for better opportunity. By 1984, at age 25, it claimed me, too. My music career had hit its peak, and I really wanted to get back into my other passion, broadcasting, so I departed to the University of Florida for Graduate School (the wisest career decision of my life). Now multiply my move by millions of times a year from people mostly in the Northeast and Midwest.
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“Numbers and Demographics Matter” – In each of the nine-plus years I lived in Florida, more than one-million people migrated in annually as I did. At the time Florida was a solid blue Democrat state. But you had a lot of New York and New Jersey Democrats, and lots of liberal union labor moved in, especially on the I-95 corridor on the East Coast). On the other hand, you had a lot more centrist or conservative union members from Midwest Rust Belt States moving to the West Coast along the I-75 Corridor, which was a traditional Florida Republican stronghold. They also went to the military dominated Florida Panhandle, which was the most conservative part of the state. Florida elected Tampa Mayor Bob Martinez (R) Governor in 1986, flipped many seats in the Legislature, and by 1988 was a new solid Red State. Georgia ran a similar path.
“And There’s More!” – In the same general time frame, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama did similar political summersaults. You add in Kentucky and Tennessee, and the Solid South went from solidly blue to solidly red, now for a full generation-plus. But it was mostly the influence of “outsiders” from the Northeast and Midwest, and not true Southerners themselves who changed this. That has been a source of tension.
“So Why the 2020 Deviation, especially in Georgia” – As mentioned, the South was attracting many retirees from 1970 to after 2020. That’s 50 years. But many from the early wave are dead and gone, along with their votes. And even as they passed on, the people kept coming, especially young people looking for career opportunities. Lots of Democrats, with union opportunities shrinking up at home started coming, yes, even to seek work in non-union states, and many were liberal. Lots of them loved Bill Clinton, and especially latched on to Barack Obama. Young Ronald Reagan conservatives came, too, for jobs and a more hospitable political audience. All of the sudden, the huge wave of influx from both parties made Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida “purple” states. The way blacks and whites have warmly embraced each other in the South, in both parties, is staggering and significant. No parity yet, but the gaps are closing!
“The Bottom Line of Georgia” – The Trump campaign assumed it would win the presidential race and the two Senate seats on Election Day November 3rd. They made the “Hillary Clinton Mistake” of 2016 in just assuming Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were in her bag, without campaigning much, if at all, in all three states. She made a fatal error, lost all three states, and that cost a stunning defeat a few saw possible except the Trump strategists (and, yes me). But in 2020, Trump made the same fatal flaw about Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. The worst political wounds are often self-inflicted and can prove fatal, as I always say.
“People: The Times, the Issues, and, the Circumstances are Changin’” – There’s this odd perception of the American South, that little if nothing has changed. It’s like it’s frozen in 1967 (or even after the Civil War) and is pretty much as solid and homogenous and tense today, as it was back in the old days. It’s not. It’s one of the most economically strong regions of the country, demographically diverse, and now maybe the most politically powerful. It rocketed from ‘worst to first’ in so many things.
“Why Does This Matter?” – Senator Joe Biden was one of the first to realize the potential of the South, and he built relationships, particularly with Black voters back in the early 1970s, when he was there often as a champion of civil rights for all. At the same time, every Republican President from Nixon to Trump realized that conservative whites in the South were a powerful ally of the Republican Party, and they leveraged that, usually to their self-preservation. What no one calculated for was how the influx of people from all over the country, with various political backgrounds would move in, creating political shades of gray, missing with sharp red and sharp blue hues, to form a purple state. Biden beat Trump in a close race, and Ralph Warnock and Jon Ossoff just did the same to win two Senate seats and Democratic control of the upper chamber.
“In his Own Way, President Trump Gets Plenty of his Own Credit!” – There’s no other way around it, Trump single-handedly lost the two Georgia Senate races. He cost Sen. Mitch McConnell the Majority Leader’s job. And by his inciteful, inflammatory rhetoric, he bears his fair share of responsibility for the violence in the U.S. Capitol this week. This is his lasting legacy as he departs office. It could have ended so much better than this There are so many good people in the Republican party, and this has damaged their brand. 2022 could be difficult for them.
Do you have Georgia politics on your mind? Please share your thoughts and leave a comment below.
Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media TV Stations serving West Virginia, it’s five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER contributor for www.GoLocalProv.com, and its affiliates.
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