Pumping the Political Primary Process – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – August 7, 2022
Sunday, August 07, 2022
Five more states held primaries this week with a wide variety of results. And an embattled Senate “kingmaker” is making headlines again. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.
“Arizona Governor” – This one is the dramatic Trump vs. Pence showdown that pit the once White House teammates against each other. Forner President Donald Trump backed Kari Lake, a once popular TV news personality. Former Vice President Mike Pence backed Karrin Taylor Robson, a previous member of the Arizona Board of Regents. Trump and Pence both campaigned for their picks. It remained tight, with 90 percent of the vote counted, Trump-backed Lake led with 47 percent. Pence-backed Robson was a close second at 44 percent. There are not enough absentee, provisional or military ballots to overcome that margin, so Lake wins. The Democrat nominee is current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.
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“Other Arizona Races” – Arizona, along with Georgia and Pennsylvania, were among the states where Mr. Trump alleged the presidential race was “stolen” in 2020. He has yet to put forth any legal evidence to prove that claim. As mentioned, current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) Arizona is now the Democrat nominee for governor. But Trump did weigh in on her potential Republican replacement for Secretary of State. Trump endorsed State Rep. Mark Finchem (R) Arizona, who is a 2020 election denier believing Trump carried this state. Finchem won big. He will face Democrat Adrian Fontes in November. Again, the “Trump factor” prevails in endorsement power.
“Why Arizona is so Crucial” – Arizona is one of ten so-called battleground states, which can go either way. It used to be solid red, but with the influx of northern retirees the state is now purple. The present governor is a Republican, while the two U.S. Senators are Democrats. In fact, other than Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona, is the most conservative Democrat in the U.S. Senate. In a highly unusual win, President Joe Biden won Arizona in the 2020 race. Bill Clinton won it in 1996, but you have to go back to 1948 and President Harry Truman to find another Democrat who won here. Back then it had four Electoral College votes, but now it has eleven. Arizona has influence!
“The Kansas Abortion Stunner” – Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion nationally, abortion is now becoming a bigger wedge issue. The issue is left up to each individual state and it’s going to be an ongoing fight, as each state decides. On Tuesday, in the solidly and reliably red state of Kansas, voters rejected a ballot effort to greatly restrict abortions. The vote was 59 percent against the restrictions, with 41 percent for. That’s a near landslide win. Voter turnout was 47 percent which is unusually high for a primary ballot. Clearly, voters are very engaged on this issue.
“What Does the Kansas Vote Mean?” – I have said for weeks that the Roe v. Wade decision would be a big motivator for the losing side. It would ratchet up “get out the vote efforts,” especially in U.S. Senate races, because only senators can vote for Supreme Court nominees. Voter registration in Kansas is 44 percent Republican, 26 percent Democrat and 30 percent for minor parties or independents. But since the Roe draft decision leaked earlier this year, new voter registrations spiked by 33,000 in Kansas. In other words, certain people were motivated to not only register, but they actually showed up to vote. A very “blue” issue position was able to dominate in one very “red” state. That is just fascinating and could predict what lies ahead.
“New York Showdown” – It is one of the weirdest Congressional races of 2022, in the Democrat stronghold of New York state. Yes, the state lost one seat in the House of Representatives because of population loss, but it still has the fourth highest number of Electoral College votes after California, Texas, and Florida. It also has a dominant Democrat legislature in both houses, and a Democrat governor. All that said, I found it odd that longtime U.S. Representatives Gerald Nadler (D) New York and Carolyn Maloney (D) New York were “drawn” into the very same new Congressional district. Maloney made headlines this week suggesting President Biden will decline to seek a second term in 2024, but Rep. Nadler believes Biden will run. This may become an issue in this race, so keep an eye on it. The primary is August 23.
“Manchin in the Middle” – Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia is “the lightning rod” in Washington, DC. Many of his fellow Democrats despise him, while many of his Republican colleagues have a begrudging respect, (if not love for him). As the most conservative Democrat Senator in the body, he is the most influential vote in a place that often ties at 50-50 on party lines. Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) New York forged an odd alliance on a new $740 billion dollar spending plan (with $300 million of it marked for deficit reduction). “This is a balanced bill,” Manchin told me. It’s known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, though doubters don’t think it will ease inflation. Late Thursday night Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona announced, she too, will back the bill. That gives the Senate a 50-50 tie, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. It’s a big win for the White House, at least in the short-term.
“Missouri: The ‘Show Me’ the Door State” – The “Show Me” state is looking for a replacement for Sen. Roy Blount (R) Missouri, who is retiring. Among those in the GOP primary was former Gov. Eric Greitens (R) Missouri, who was forced to resign over a sex scandal, or be impeached. Greitens wound up in third place, losing to reigning Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who captured 46 percent of the vote in a crowded field. The disgraced Greitens had just 19 percent. In a bizarre twist on the day before the primary, Trump urged people to vote for “Eric,” but he did not specify if the endorsement was for Greitens or Schmitt. Odd!
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
