Reflections on Trump Factor and the Guns Dividing Us – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 5, 2022

Sunday, June 05, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump

Okay, it’s time to catch our breath. After 15 primaries and runoff elections, there were no primaries the day after Memorial Day. But here they come again! This Tuesday, June 7th there are seven primaries. As always, one of the things we keep monitoring is the so-called Trump factor, in terms of how much influence the ex-president has on this year’s election cycle. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Who Votes on Tuesday?” – Here are the states and their “colors” on the political spectrum: California (blue). Iowa (purple), Mississippi (red), Montana (red), New Jersey (blue), New Mexico (blue), and South Dakota (red). I mention the colors because we may start seeing trends in the primaries that paint a bigger, more colorful picture of what might happen in November.

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“The Trump Factor to Date?” – It’s been a mixed bag so far. Trump-backed candidates such as Senate hopefuls J.D. Vance (R) Ohio and Mehmet Oz (R) Pennsylvania, barely won their primaries in two key swing states. But in West Virginia Trump-endorsed Rep. Alex Mooney (R) District 2, who crushed Rep. David McKinley (R) District 1, in a newly-merged district. Mooney won by 18 points. However, there is Georgia, where Trump-backed candidates for Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State all went down to large defeats. In my analysis about 2/3rds of Trump-endorsed candidates are winning their primaries, so he still has major-league clout.

 

“Iowa First!” – The state that traditionally hosts the first presidential caucuses could be a bellwether when it comes to which party controls the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election in November. Longtime Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) Iowa is President Pro Tempore of the U.S. Senate, fourth in line when it comes to presidential succession. He’s been in the Senate for 42 years, and six years in the House before that. Donald Trump has endorsed him. But Grassley faces a primary opponent this year in Jim Carlin. The Democrat primary is heated with former Congresswoman Abbey Finkenauer, retired Admiral Michael Franken, and Dr. Glenn Hurst all in the mix. This could be a “purple state” showdown come November!

 

“Every Vote Matters” – I know it sounds cliché, but it bears repeating with two recent races at razor-thin margins. I mentioned the Senate race between Mehmet Oz (R) Pennsylvania and David McCormick (R) Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz remains slightly ahead by 910 votes out of 1.2 million votes cast. An automatic recount is underway, but on Friday McCormick conceded. Meanwhile in Texas, long-time Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) Texas leads his progressive challenger Janet Cisneros (D) Texas, by just 136 votes, out of more than 45-thousand cast. Cuellar is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, and if he loses, it could be a blessing to Republican nominee Cassy Garcia. Control of the House may come down to just one seat and this race could be the kingmaker. Keep an eye on it!

 

“Shoring Up the Jersey Vote” – One of the most fascinating Democrat primaries in the nation this year is in the solidly blue state of New Jersey. Rep. Donald Payne, Jr., a 10-year veteran of the House is being challenged in the primary by Imani Oakley, a former Congressional staffer. Both are African American. Payne is the son of the late Rep. Donald Payne, Sr. (D) New Jersey, who held the seat for 23 years. But the upstart Oakley, who would be New Jersey’s first woman in the House of Representatives, has been aggressive and is out-fundraising Payne. This is a solid Democrat district, with little chance for the GOP.

 

“California Dreamin’” – Right now California has 53 seats in the House of Representatives. Democrats hold 42 seats, to 10 for Republicans, with one vacant. The Golden State lost one Congressional seat in 2022, due to population loss in the latest census. Despite the Democrat’s stranglehold, the GOP is poised for modest gains. Ten primary races are seen as competitive. The most intriguing race involves Rep. Tom McClintock who moved from District 3 near Sacramento to a neighboring district that has even more Republicans. In the meantime, the GOP has three well-known candidates running in McClintock’s old district and they could take both seats for a net state gain of one. Not much you say? Not so fast! Again, with House control a toss-up, it could be the deciding seat! Cobbling together a majority will take jig-saw puzzle moves like this across the country.

 

“Manchin Guns” – Let’s step away from the primary fights for just a moment, to talk about guns in the wake of the latest mass killings in the U.S. “You can’t buy a glass of wine until you’re 21 if you go to a restaurant, but you can go out and buy a weapon if you will. There has to be an age   and also qualifications of the performance, taking classes. Those type of things are reasonable,” said Sen. Joe Manchin, (D) West Virginia, who signaled he could support raising the gun-buying age for weapons such as assault rifles to age 21. As always, he’s a pivotal vote!

 

“Does the White House Back Manchin?” – The answer appears to be yes, at least on some key issues. Thursday night President Biden addressed the nation and said, “We need to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.” Biden added, “And if we can’t ban assault weapons, then we should raise the age to purchase them from 18 to 21. Strengthen background checks and safe storage laws and red flag laws.” He went on to say mental health reforms are needed, something Manchin and many Republicans back. Stay tuned.

 

“The GOP Response” – Many Republicans are not willing to give an inch on gun owners’ rights, at the federal or state level. Last week here in West Virginia, we had a guy open fire with an AR-15 at a child’s graduation party. A woman in the crowd, who was legally packing, pulled a pistol from her purse and shot the gunman to death, likely saving countless lives. No one else was hurt. Aside from that, Delegate Chris Pritt (R) Kanawha County, weighed in on what he called a lack of funding for school safety. “We just recently sent 40 billion dollars to Ukraine. That’s money that could be used to go towards school security. That’s a large chunk of money that we could have used to protect our schools,” said Del. Pritt.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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