The One-Year March to the 2022 Elections - “The Sunday Political Brunch” – November 14, 2021

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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President Biden and former President Trump are big factors in the mid-terms

This past week we marked November 8, 2021, the exact one-year stepping-off point to the 2022 mid-term U.S. elections. Certainly, it comes on the strong Republican showing in the off-year elections, the week prior, but is certainly no barometer to what may happen a year from now. Still, there will be some key variables in play as the campaign marches forward. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Biden’s Approval Rating Tanks” –  Write down the date of August 27, 2021, as that is the first date that President Joe Biden’s approval rating went negative. His disapproval rating was at 47.6% while his approval rating was at 47.0%, pretty much a statistical dead heat. Since then, the gap has widened. On September 12, the polls showed 51.4% disapproval of the Biden term, with approval at 42.8 percent. But once the bipartisan infrastructure bill was approved by both chambers of Congress in the past week, Biden’s disapproval dropped slightly to 47% approve to 50 % disapprove, according to Yahoo News. I know we’re splitting hairs here, but it’s trending better and may continue to do so. The voting public likes accomplishment, and this could be, “Exhibit A.”

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“Physical Infrastructure Yes; Social Infrastructure, meh?” – On Monday President Biden will sign the $1.2 trillion-dollar physical infrastructure bill, which Yahoo News calls “his bill.” Well, I am calling BS on Yahoo. This is VERY much a true bipartisan Congressional bill that was shaped and shepherded through Congress by Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia. This was the first time the Mountain State, (with among the worst roads, bridges, and broadband in the nation), flexed its collective muscle in the spirit of the nation’s longest-serving U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd, who was technically my boss in 1993. I’ve had a front-row seat!

 

“Timing is Critical in Politics” – Forget for a moment who should get real credit for this law being passed. It may not be fair, but no matter what Congress does, the credit or blame for everything usually ends up at the White House. As I pointed out in this column a number of times, the last major U.S. infrastructure bill was passed in December 1991. With contract bidding and other tedious problems, little if any, pavement was done by November 1992, and President George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid. But this current bill was passed in Biden’s first year. We could see bulldozers and paving trucks by August, with visuals in time for the 2022 midterms and his 2024 reelection bid. Right now, the timing advantage helps Democrats (and the Republicans who made this truly bipartisan).

 

“The Inflation Conflagration” – The last three modern-day presidents who experienced significant inflation in their terms were all voted out of office. In 1976, despite a “WIN” program for, “Whip Inflation Now,” President Gerald Ford presided over an inflation rate of 9.13% in 1975, the year before he lost his reelection bid. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter had an inflation rate of 11.35%, the year before he lost to Ronald Reagan. In 1990, the inflation rate stood at 6.11%. For the first ten months of the Biden administration, inflation is at 6.2 percent, with sharp spikes at the grocery store and at the gas pump, two of the biggest consumer (and voter) concerns. This is not a death knell 12-months out, but it is a big red flag to watch.

 

“Trump Legal Problems” – While former President Donald Trump is trying to make a comeback, some of the headlines aren’t helping him. Former advisor Steve Bannon has been indicted for Contempt of Congress, for not appearing to discuss the January 6th riot aimed at overturning the 2020 Election results. Former White House Chief of Staff and Congressman Mark Meadows has been similarly uncooperative. A federal court is saying Trump has no “Executive Privilege” claim on anyone’s testimony, but appeals are underway.

 

“Co-president Manchin” – Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, remains one of the most powerful people in the Nation’s Capital. I forget which radio pundit dubbed him, “Co-President Manchin,” but the analysis was spot on. The problem for him is that it’s highly unlikely the Senate will regain a 50-50 split after the 2022 election. A lot of his “juice” and influence could fade depending on which party wins outright control of the chamber. Or, could a party switch renew his power base? It’s not out of the question given the Biden administration’s goal to remove fossil fuels from the energy mix (which is not popular in Manchin’s fossil-fuel-driven state economy).

 

“Do the Math and Show Your Work” – A few things changed slightly in the off-year election, but here’s the bottom line as of today. The U.S. Senate remains tied at 50-50, so a one vote net-gain by either party seizes the majority. The House is now 221 Democrats to 213 Republicans, with one independent. Republicans need just a net-gain of five seats to win the majority and the speakership. As the party out-of-power in a midterm election, it’s a goal that is very doable, as the minority party typically gains seats (and usually well more than just five).

 

“Virginia Wrap-up” – “It’s not over, ‘til it’s over,” said famous New York Yankee Yogi Berra. (One of my career highlights was working for Yogi’s nephew Bill, a renowned news director). To the point, Glenn Youngkin may have won last week’s race for Virginia Governor, but the House of Delegates went 50 seats GOP, to 47 votes DEM, with two undecided seats leaning Republican, and one undecided seat leaning Democrat, so we’re heading for a recount in those three races. Look, any party can win a governor’s race, but unless you have some control of the legislature, it’s hard to run your agenda. Democrats hold a one-vote majority in the State Senate.

There is high drama yet to play out in the Old Dominion.

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ Contributing Political Analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com.

 

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