The Politics of Race in 2021: “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 24, 2021

Sunday, October 24, 2021

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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George P. Bush PHOTO Whitney82916 CC 4.0

Last week in this column I was writing about the prospective 2024 Republican presidential candidates. I mentioned Jeb Bush as still being a contender, but that his son George P. Bush may be a more viable candidate down the road as he is “biracial.”

That prompted one of my editors to ask, “Why mention biracial?” It’s a fair question. My answer involves lots of reasons, so let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

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“Let’s Define the Terms” – First of all, the term bi-racial is inaccurate. George P. Bush is “multi-ethnic,” or “multi-national,” since both Whites and Latinos are considered Caucasian. George P’s mom is from Mexico. Barack Obama was biracial with a Black father and a White mother, and Kamala Harris is also biracial with a Black father and an Asian mom. I know some critics will say I’m splitting hairs on this, or that my analysis should be “color-blind.” But folks, this stuff is a cornerstone of political strategy in both parties, and it’s not going away.

 

“Why Did Hillary Clinton Lose in 2016?” – You could also ask the question in a different way, “Why did Donald Trump win in 2016?” Quite honestly it came down to a daring Trump strategy and a glaring Clinton mistake that led to a “perfect storm.” Trump’s data said he would win North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio, so he pulled huge assets out of those states to make a serious run at Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, three traditionally blue states that the Clinton campaign assumed it had “in the bag!” Oops!

 

“How it Played Out” – Trump stole the Ronald Reagan theme from 1980 essentially asking, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Too many in these three states, especially in minority communities, the answer was no. Minority unemployment is often double or triple that of the majority White population. Now, Trump did not win the Black or Latino vote in any of these states, but he did erode it. In Wisconsin and Michigan, black voter support for Hillary Clinton plummeted 12 percent, from what it had been for Barack Obama in 2012. It dipped, though not as dramatically, in Ohio and Pennsylvania as well. In Michigan, it was the margin of defeat. Trump won Michigan by just ten thousand votes, as 50,000 fewer Black voters cast ballots in 2016, than they did four years prior. The key voters just stayed home!

 

“This is NOT a Black and White Issue” -- Like so many things in life, the contrasts aren’t as sharp as black and white. It’s more shades of gray, and in the case of race, more hues of brown. As mentioned, Ronald Reagan enjoyed significant Hispanic voter strength, averaging 36 percent in his 1980 and 1984 presidential wins. George H. W. Bush was not as popular, drawing 30 and 25 percent respectively in the next two runs for the White House. But rebounds came in 2000 and 2004 when a bi-lingual Texas Gov. George W. Bush took 35 and 40 percent of the Hispanic vote on the road to the White House. His brother Jeb, also bilingual with a Latina wife, did even better in Florida. Then it plummeted to 27 percent Hispanic votes for Mitt Romney in 2012. There is an ebb and flow, but America’s largest minority voter block matters a lot, to both parties.

 

“Forget 2024: Why Race and Ethnicity Matter so Much in 2022” - As mentioned, the Hispanic vote has been a key to a lot of Republican wins, especially in the states of Texas and Florida, where that ethnic group often leans right of center. Right now, all states are redrawing their political districts based on the 2020 Census. We already know that Texas will gain two seats in the U.S. House, and Florida will gain one. Since the GOP controls redistricting in both states, don’t be surprised to see districts drawn to favor Republican-leaning candidates in Hispanic strongholds. Here’s the real math: Republicans need a net gain of just three seats to wrestle control of the U.S. House from Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats. They could do it simply with the new seats in Texas and Florida.

 

“The Political Reality” – I know when discussing racial issues, especially as it ties into politics, I will get lots of critical emails and texts. “You’re a race-bating racist!” and “Politics should be about leadership, not skin color.” Those may be two of the kinder, gentler messages. I get it. It’s no fun to discuss this stuff, especially when it is so divisive. But folks, let me be candid. Every political strategist and campaign manager, and media analyst worth his or her salt, gathers and evaluates this kind of data all the time. Is it the Balkanization of American politics? Perhaps. But do you realize that every business from McDonald’s, to Pepsi, to Procter and Gamble, and Miller Beer, employs very similar research strategies? Data mining on the internet makes it even more intense. This is modern day marketing and research whether we like it or not, and the outcomes matter!

 

“Why All of This Matters” – My most quoted political axiom, is that “Politics is as much about the math, as it is about the ideology.” In short, you can have the greatest ideas on the planet but if you don’t have the votes to implement the policy, it won’t happen. The same is true with the broader strokes of American politics. More states such as California, are “majority-minority” meaning the Black, Hispanic, and Asian, et. al., populations in total, surpassed the White population. In short, minorities have huge, unprecedented leverage in politics, especially in the largest states with the most Electoral College and Congressional votes. The battle to sway that influence is largely race-based and is up for grabs for both parties. That’s why it matters and is worthy of debate here!

 

General Colin Powell – Certainly one of the greatest pioneers in American politics and public policy was retired Gen. Colin Powell. He was one of the most prominent Black Republicans in the nation, having served as National Security Advisor, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of State. Powell died this week at 84, a man deeply respected and revered in both parties.

 

What are your thoughts about the continuing presence and influence of race in politics? Just click the comment button to let us know.

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the multiple award-winning Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media Inc., TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ political columnist and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and all its affiliates.

 

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