The Florida Primary Colors—“The Sunday Political Brunch”—August 28, 2022

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Voting in Florida on Tuesday PHOTO: Mark Curtis

I’m in South Florida for much-needed R&R. Could be karma, (because you know I don’t like to miss the big stuff), as I was also here for this past week’s critical Florida primary. As a former resident and reporter in this state, I loved being right in the middle of the action. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

    

“Why is the Sunshine State so Crucial?” – Florida is well known for big storms, and we are already in hurricane season. Well, consider the implications of this primary as “the perfect storm” politically speaking. Look, for decades, Florida was critical to which candidate won the White House. Now in 2022, control of the U.S. House and the Senate may also depend on what happens in the Sunshine State, as well as the White House in 2024.

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“Governing the Governor” -- Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, won the state’s top job in 2018 and is up for a second and final term, due to term limits. He won his primary, no question. The Democrats had an interesting primary. Former Gov. Charlie Crist (R) Florida, turned independent, then turned Democrat, and currently serves in the U.S. House. His primary opponent was Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) Florida, the only Democrat to hold statewide office in Florida. Fried fought to paint the ex-Republican as not a true Democrat. It didn’t work; Crist won the primary 60 percent to 35 percent for Fried. Crist and DeSantis will face off in November. Big picture: Is a DeSantis presidential run next in 2024?

 

“Rubio vs. Demings for U.S. Senate” – With the U.S. Senate tied at 50-50, the Florida race this year will be a titan and divisive contest. Two-term Sen. Marco Rubio (R) Florida is being challenged by U.S. Rep Val Demings (D) Florida, in one of the nation’s most-watched contests. Neither had serious primary opponents, so their marquee race is in November. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Rubio leading 49 to 43 percent. But a poll last week from the University of North Florida, has Demings leading 48 to 44 percent. Demings has raised $48 million dollars, to Rubio’s $37 million. This may be the most expensive Senate race of 2022.

 

“The Politics of Student Loan Forgiveness” – I’ll let others debate whether the student loan forgiveness policy is inflationary, or fair, or discriminatory, etc. But the politics of it are undeniable. Enough polls indicate the Democrats could lose both the House and Senate this fall, and the pressure from the party’s left to fulfill a Biden 2020 campaign promise is undeniable. The timing is obvious, regardless of whether it's good policy or not. Even many Democrats will freely admit that.

 

“Florida Gains a Seat; GOP Draws the Lines” – Right now Democrats have 220 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, with 211 for Republicans. You need a minimum of 218 to win the majority. So, the GOP needs a net gain of seven seats to take control from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In the 2020 census, Florida gained another seat going from 26 to 27 House seats, the third highest total in the nation. Since the GOP had a stronghold on redistricting here, Republicans are likely to win that new seat. So, six more to go to a majority. There are other Florida seats maybe headed Republican. My prediction is the state will flip three to GOP.

 

“Tight Race in House District 13” – This is where the GOP could gain a House seat. Rep. Charlie Crist (D) Florida gave up his St. Petersburg-area seat to run for governor. Meanwhile the GOP-led legislature redrew this district to make it more favorable to Republican candidates. 2020 GOP Candidate Anna Luna who was endorsed by Trump is back. Her opponent, Kevin Hayslett, was backed by Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Trump-backed Luna won the primary, 44 to 34 percent and will face Democrat Eric Lynn, a former Congressional staffer, in November. I predict a Republican pick up.

 

“Voices from the Grave?” – When I was covering the Florida Primary this past week, I found a good example of why most people hate politics. In the 20th Congressional District, the incumbent Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, was again being challenged by former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness. She beat him by just five votes in the January 2022 special election. The race was to succeed longtime Rep. Alcee Hastings who died in office. So, I found it amusing when I saw Holness campaign signs saying, “Endorsed by Alcee Hastings!” The Holness campaign website shows him with the late Congressman (for whom I, nor anyone else, can find any written, audio or video endorsement). Turns out the real endorser here is Alcee Hasting II, the dead Congressman’s son. Look, Democrats will hold this seat. Despite all the “endorsement” drama, and a previous five-vote win, Cherfilus-McCormick won easily 65 to 29 percent.

 

“Matt Gaetz and His Baggage” – In my old stomping grounds, the western Florida Panhandle where I was a political reporter from 1987 through 1992, it appears controversial Congressman Matt Gaetz (R) Florida is moving ahead, despite his troubles. Gaetz is under a House Ethics Committee probe, and a Department of Justice investigation, about whether he paid underage women for sex. This district is a GOP stronghold, though Democrat nominee Rebekah Jones, a fired state COVID worker, is getting attention. Unless the Trump-backed Gaetz is charged, he is likely to score a GOP win.

 

“Voter Turnout Has Changed” - One of the polling places I went to had far more campaign yard signs, than people lined up to vote. It didn’t used to be this way, especially in a very populous place such as Florida. By Tuesday, more than two million people had already voted early in-person balloting, or by mail, according to the Secretary of State. More than 2.5 million other mail ballots were requested. In all, Florida has more than 14 million registered voters. COVID-19 precautions, here and elsewhere, have changed voting habits and patterns, me thinks, for good.

 

“Fallout from The Mar-a-Lago Raid” – Certainly, Florida could be home to our next president in 2024. Former President Trump now makes the Sunshine State his legal residence, while potential GOP primary challenger Gov. Ron DeSantos does, too! If either can start the 2024 race with the state’s 29 Electoral College votes in his back pocket, (plus Texas), he has a strategic advantage. Similarly, Democrats could start the race with New York and California in their column. Trump is already putting pedal-to-the-medal fundraising over the FBI raid on his new social media platform, Truth Social, and in direct mail and email. DeSantis is a big raid critic, too.

 

“New York, New York” – “Start spreading the news…” Florida was not the only state with hot primaries Tuesday. In New York, 30+ year Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) New York was thrown into a merged Congressional race with longtime Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) New York. Also in the mix was Democrat challenger Suraj Patel, who almost toppled Maloney in 2020. While Democrats have accused Republicans of gerrymandering districts in states such as Florida and Texas, they can’t do that in New York, where Democrats have a stronghold in the state legislature. Nadler won big, 55 to 24 percent.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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