Sizing up the Senate Scramble – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 23, 2022
Sunday, October 23, 2022
“The Brunch” is on the road this week in my home state of Wisconsin. As I have mentioned in previous weeks, there are ten states that have “toss-up” U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the upper chamber of Congress. We have already profiled Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Nevada, so this week let’s “brunch” on the other six states as there is a lot to “chew on!”:
“On Wisconsin, Grand Old Badger State” – Politics is a blood sport in my home state. It has produced colorful national figures such as Sen. Robert “Fighting Bob” La Follette, a 1924 third-party presidential candidate. Then there was communist hunter, Sen. Joe McCarthy (R) Wisconsin. And, government spending watchdog, and my friend, Sen. Bill Proxmire (D) Wisconsin. In full disclosure, I was once a Legislative Aide to U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl (D) Wisconsin, the one-time owner of all those Kohl’s Department Stores. What a colorful history.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
“Wisconsin 2022” – The incumbent is two-term Sen. Ron Johnson (R) Wisconsin. He is facing the current Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) Wisconsin, the first African American ever to be elected to statewide office in the Badger State. Barnes, who was elected to the state’s number-two job at the age of 31, previously served two-terms in the State Assembly. He is a self-described Progressive, in the state where the Progressive movement began. Johnson is a Trump supported businessperson. He was first elected in 2010, in a wave that eventually led to GOP control of both chambers of Congress. The most recent Marquette University Poll puts Johnson in the lead 52 to 46 percent over Barnes. Other polls indicate the race is even tighter.
“Name is Key in the Keystone State” – No one in the race is an unknown wallflower. On the Democrat side, you have current Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) Pennsylvania facing well-known TV celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz, best known simply as, “Dr. Oz.” Fetterman, who had a stroke earlier this year, has been cleared to keep campaigning, which Oz said he welcomed in a statement on Wednesday. President Biden is a native Pennsylvanian who moved to Delaware. Still, roots run deep, and Biden support and loyalty could be factors.
“Arizona Wants Me” – The incumbent is Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Arizona, a former astronaut along with his twin-brother Scott. Sen. Kelly is also the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D) Arizona who was wounded in an assassination attack 11 years ago. Arizona used to be a reliably Red State, but with the influx of retirees from other states, especially union members and minorities, the state is now definitely “purple.” The fact that two Democrats now hold the U.S. Senate seats after decades of Republican domination speaks volumes. All the most recent polls put Kelly up, but not by much. The Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has him ahead of Republican nominee Blake Masters by just 3.7 percentage points. Masters is a Stanford Law graduate, a high-tech entrepreneur, and a bestselling author. He is Trump-endorsed and has a legitimate shot here.
“Don’t Take New Hampshire for Granite” – Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) New Hampshire is the incumbent, and a former Governor. Many Hassan supporters crossed over in the primary, and voted for the more conservative Republican Don Bolduc, over the moderate GOP candidate, State Senate President Chuck Morse. They perceived Morse as the bigger November threat. The strategy may have worked. A Fabrizio/Anzalone poll last week had Hassan leading by seven points over Bolduc heading into November.
“Rocky Race in Colorado” – Sen. Michael Bennett (D) Colorado was appointed to the seat in 2009, then won full terms in 2010 and 2016. Bennet is facing Joe O’Dea, a moderate Republican who supports some abortion rights and does not believe there was wide or significant voter fraud in 2020. He defeated a far-right Trump supporter in the primary, so some feel he has a shot in a more moderate Colorado. The latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll shows Bennett with 49 percent, to 41 percent for O’Dea, and 10 percent still undecided. So, it’s competitive.
“Elected from Carolina in My Mind” – Democrats believed their best shot this year might be an open seat in North Carolina, a legitimate toss-up state. Sen. Richard Burr (R) chose not to seek another term, though he would have faced easy reelection after serving a total of 28 years in the House and Senate. Rep. Ted Budd (R) North Carolina, a three-term House member, is the GOP Senate nominee. The Democrats nominated Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court. Analysts thought this would be an extremely competitive race. The most recent poll from East Carolina University shows Budd in a 6-point lead, with a 50 to 44 percent advantage over Beasley. Undecided voters could be crucial!
“The Bottom Line” – The economy remains the number one issue. This week the credit rating firm of Fitch Ratings, forecast the U.S would be in a mild recession in early 2023. Yes, that is after the election, but people are already feeling it. This week Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia said to me, “I am very concerned about the inflation figures that we see. Gas is going up. Food is going up. The cost of heating is going up.” Meantime, President Biden released another 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and encouraged oil companies to drill more, in hopes that increased supply would lower prices. Mr. Biden said, “My message to oil companies is this: You’re sitting on record profits and we’re giving you more certainty so you can act now to increase oil production.” But, with less than three weeks before Election Day is it too little, too late?
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
Related Articles
- Roe Goes South, Biden’s Money Problems & Trump’s Truth Problems – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- The January 6th Probe and the Primary Slog March On – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – June 19, 2022
- Honoring Those Who Protect our Political Freedom – “The Sunday Political Brunch” July 3, 2022
- Will the Campaign be Abortion v. Inflation?—“The Sunday Political Brunch”—July 10, 2022
- Farewell to an American Hero—“The Sunday Political Brunch”—July 17, 2022
- Primaries, Guns, and Riots, Oh My! – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 12, 2022
- Reflections on Trump Factor and the Guns Dividing Us – “The Sunday Political Brunch” June 5, 2022
- The Political Roller Coaster Ride Begins – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - May 8, 2022
- Traveling the Twisting Trump Trail – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—May 15, 2022
- The Political Primary Parade is in Full Swing – “The Sunday Political Brunch” May 22, 2022
- The Punishing Primary Path Continues – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- Painting with Primary Colors and Potluck Politics – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- Is Trump’s Train Steaming or Derailing – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – July 31, 2022
- Primaries End with Calm Before Political Storm – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 25, 2022
- Election 2022 is a “Soup” Full of Issues – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- “Is it Too Late to Turn the Political Tide?”—The Sunday Political Brunch October 2, 2022
- New Restaurant Opens on Federal Hill — Featuring Breakfast and Brunch
- A Sprint to the Election Day Finish Line – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- Strategy for Two Months to Go Until Election Day – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- A Labor Day Political Hodge Podge – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 4, 2022
- Pumping the Political Primary Process – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – August 7, 2022
- The 2024 Political Earthquake Hits Two Years Early – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- The Mixed Messages Speeding to the Election Finish Line – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
- The Florida Primary Colors—“The Sunday Political Brunch”—August 28, 2022
- The Scramble to Seize Senate Control – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 16, 2022