A Sprint to the Election Day Finish Line – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, October 09, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

As of Saturday, October 8, it was just one month until Election Day 2022. A lot is on the line, and there is precious little time to change minds at this point. Everything from abortion, to inflation, and on to Mar-a-Lago is on the table. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“OPEC Opus” – OPEC+, which stands for the Organization of Petroleum and Exporting Counties, announced this past Wednesday that it is cutting production by two million barrels a day. Many economists believe a cut in production will lead to another spike in oil prices. While most states hit $5.00 a gallon earlier this year, states such as West Virginia where I live, dropped as low as $3.29 last week. As I often mention, the party in power usually gets the blame for bad news, whether it is deserved or not. With Democrats controlling the White House, Senate, and House, the timing of this could not be any worse. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said, “This announcement should serve to further motivate my colleagues in Congress to come to the table to pass comprehensive, bipartisan permitting reform to lessen our dependence on these foreign nations.” (A permitting reform bill from Manchin to allow more pipelines failed last week).

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“All Eyes on Inflation” – This coming Thursday, the October Consumer Price Index will be released. It will be the final report before Election Day. Three months ago, inflation was at 9.1 percent then dropped to 8.5 percent, and to 8.3 percent, over two succeeding months. An increase, or even a plateau, could spell doom for some incumbents, but it is particularly risky for Democrats.

 

“Walker’s Worries” – With an evenly split U.S. Senate right now, every race in November is critical to who controls the chamber come January. One of the closely watched races is in Georgia where two well-known African American men face off against each other. The incumbent is Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who won a special election in 2021. The Republican challenger is Trump-backed University of Georgia football legend Herschel Walker. Walker is reeling from allegations from his own son that he has been a poor father; and that Herschel once paid for his girlfriend’s abortion; and has been verbally and physically abusive to others. Walker denies all charges, but in a tight, expensive race this could especially affect decisions by independent voters. One seat could doom a GOP senate takeover, and this may be that seat.

 

“An October Surprise?" – The Washington Post and CBS News both reported Friday that federal agents have enough evidence to charge presidential son Hunter Biden with tax and gun crimes. If that happens, the timing couldn’t be worse just a month before people vote. Look, it has nothing to do with any races, but bad news on the party in power doesn’t time well as voting nears.

 

“Bot Candidates – DEM” – Okay, I’ve complained in this column before about robotic email messages and texts from “bots.” They are as annoying as robocalls on your phone. As a political reporter, every single candidate in the nation has both my personal and professional email addresses. I get bombarded daily. One email that was sent under the name of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “I need just 60 seconds of your full attention. First, I watched Republicans launch more than 400 voter suppression bills nationwide to keep Democrats from ever winning another election. Then, MSNBC warned that if we lose our democracy in this election, we are unlikely to get it back during our lifetimes.” Folks, on November 9, the day after the election, our democracy will still be intact! I’d bet good money on it!

 

“Bot Candidates – GOP” – Now, the other side of the aisle is just as pesky and annoying. While lots of the emails are addressed to “Mark,” the vast majority simply address me with the salutation, “Patriot,” and urgently advise me to take some action, sign a petition, or most often, ask for a donation. That Republican candidates would try to take ownership of the word “patriot” offends me. I know plenty of Democrats, Libertarians, independents, and others who are very patriotic people, including those serving in uniform.

 

“Abortion Ballot 2022” – Four states will have abortion initiatives on the ballot in 2022. They are California, Michigan, Vermont, and Kentucky. The first three states have initiatives that, if passed, would ensure a woman’s reproductive rights, including the choice of abortion. The Kentucky initiative would amend the state constitution to say that it does not protect the right to abortion, nor the funding to provide one.

 

“Abortion Voter Motivation 2022” – While most states do not have any abortion initiatives on the ballot, some are instead using the issue to motivate voter registration and turnout. In Wisconsin, Democrat Governor Tony Evers called a special session of the legislature, with hopes of repealing the state’s 1849 ban on abortion. Republicans, who control both chambers of the legislature, gaveled in for about 20 seconds this week, then recessed without taking a vote. The Governor and fellow Democrats are using this as a flashpoint, trying to drive voters to the polls November 8th. A recent Marquette University poll shows that 61 percent of Wisconsin voters opposed overturning Roe v. Wade, while 30 percent supported ending abortion rights. The rest had no opinion.

 

“Trump Supreme Court” – Former President Donald Trump has filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, concerning the raid and seizure of allegedly classified documents from his estate at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. I will leave the legal merits and debates to others, but will assess the potential political fallout. Trump’s appeal described the taking of documents as, "An investigation of the 45th President of the United States by the administration of his political rival and successor." Trump’s appeal said that to allow the inquiry to proceed, "erodes public confidence in our system of justice." Trump may be banking that the three justices he nominated to the court will take his side, along with two other conservative justices. But remember, a 1997 Supreme Court (including two President Bill Cintron appointees), voted 9-0 that Clinton had to testify in a sexual harassment lawsuit filed against him. My point is the court does not necessarily march in lockstep with the party line.

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