Election Predictions 2022 – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—November 6, 2022

Sunday, November 06, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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PA Lt. Governor John Fetterman, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate

Well, it’s that time I love (and sometimes loathe) in every election cycle when I like to predict the outcomes of the election. This year the nation has some stark economic problems, and midterm elections are usually a downturn for the party in power. This year that would be the Democrats, who control the White House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. It could be troublesome this year, given the economic troubles. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Republicans Take the House” – I think it’s a foregone conclusion that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her Democrat majority are going to get tossed this year. Right now, Democrats hold 220 seats, with 212 for Republicans and three vacancies. Given that inflation is at a 40-year high and average nationwide gas prices were above, (and now below), $5 a gallon this year, means the average voter has been hit hard, with middle-and-lower-income earners taking the brunt. Those folks are a natural constituency for the Democrats, and they are not happy. I predict Republicans will flip the House with a 227-208 majority, making Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California, the next Speaker of the House.

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“The Senate is Dicey – Part I” – For the past few weeks, I’ve written about the “Top Ten” most competitive U.S. Senate races in the country. I predict Republicans will hold their seats – some with new candidates – in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Democrats will hold their seats in Colorado, Arizona, and New Hampshire. That leaves three seats “on the bubble.” I predict the Nevada seat will flip from Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Nevada to former State Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) Nevada. He’s a legacy candidate who is the grandson of former Governor and Senator Paul Laxalt. Despite all of the controversy, Hershel Walker (R) Georgia, will narrowly unseat Sen. Raphael Warnock, (D) Georgia. But the big surprise will be in the Keystone State where despite a very uneven debate performance, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will barely beat Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee, in the night’s closest U.S. Senate race.

 

“The Senate is Dicey – Part II” – Folks, I make the above Senate predictions very cautiously. If I am correct, Republicans would have a 51-49 advantage in the upper chamber of Congress. But the races in Georgia and Pennsylvania are so close, that if I am off by just one, the Senate will remain tied at 50-50, with U.S. Sen, Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia, as the key swing vote on many issues. The odds are insane, but we could be in for two more years of this drama. The old joke by now is, “Who’s the most powerful Joe in Washington?” The answer most often is, Manchin, not Biden.

 

“Again, the Economy is in the Driver’s Seat on Election Day” – The president’s cause was not helped on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted to raise interest rates by three basis points, for the fourth consecutive month. The party in power never wants that kind of negativity as people are early voting, with just six days until Election Day. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia told me she blames the Biden Administration saying, “People are going to start losing their jobs, which we cannot afford. So, the administration needs to rely on our own energy resources, instead of looking to other countries. We need to put in place, supply chains that are working. And get people back to work. And they (the Biden team) just haven’t focused on this very disappointingly.”

 

“Biden’s Veto Power” – To my Democrat friends, I say don’t be dismayed or discouraged if you lose both chambers of Congress. Why? My guess is we may see a record number of presidential vetoes from 2023 through 2025. For Congress to override a presidential veto, you need a two-thirds vote in each chamber. That would be 67 U.S. Senators and 291 U.S. House Members. That’s a far cry from the narrow GOP majorities I predicted earlier in this article.

 

“The Mood of the Nation” – Much of the nation is shocked and dismayed about the vicious attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. To the perpetrator, and anyone who supports him, this is unacceptable behavior in a free and open society. Political violence such as this, the January 6th riots, the near-fatal shooting of Rep. Steve Scalise (R) Louisiana, and some of the “defund the police” rallies, and many others, has no place from anyone, by any political stripe. Wrong, is wrong! If things are going badly in your opinion, then make the changes at the ballot box.

 

“Democracy is Not Ending” – President Joe Biden gave an early-prime access TV speech Wednesday evening, that many broadcast outlets declined to carry. Coming just six days before Election Day, the speech was deemed political in nature, and not about presidential policy. This is the second time Mr. Biden has been rebuffed recently by the networks for a televised address. Biden believes there are still enough “election deniers” out there on the political right, that they may not accept the outcome on Election Day, and there could be more violence. Biden said, “As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America – for governor, for Congress, for attorney general, for secretary of state who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections they’re in.”  “That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And it is un-American.” I predict his rhetoric is exaggerated and will prove inaccurate. Any poll worth its own reputation is predicting potentially big wins for Republicans this week. Yes, there will be some sore losers in close races, but I just don’t see the wave of disorder and violence some are predicting. Our democracy may be imperfect, but it remains strong.

 

“A History Lesson” – The most gracious concession speech in presidential politics in my life was delivered by President George H.W. Bush when he lost his reelection bid in 1992. “The people have spoken, and we respect the majesty of the democratic system,” Bush told supporters. “I just called Governor Clinton over in Little Rock and offered my congratulations. He did run a strong campaign. I wish him well in the White House, and I want the country to know that our entire administration will work closely with his team to ensure the smooth transition of power.” Some Bush supporters booed, and he quickly told them to knock it off. The transition went smoothly, and in fact, the Bushes and Clintons became very close friends over the years. That’s how it’s done right!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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