The Labor Day Dash to the Finish Line – “The Sunday Political Brunch” September 6, 2020

Sunday, September 06, 2020

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former VP Joe Biden with Hunter Biden PHOTO: Flicker Ben Stanfield CC

Labor Day, was for decades, the traditional kick-off to the fall campaign season. Nowadays with 24/7 television, talk radio, and social media, the campaigns often start years in advance and never let up. But I believe Labor Day is still significant, since if nothing else it’s a “60-Day Wake-Up Call” saying, “Pay attention, the election is near!” Let’s “brunch” on that this weekend:

“The Markey-Massachusetts Miracle” – In my years as a political reporter in New England (and in Washington, DC), I got to know and cover the Kennedy family. Some of them such as former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) Rhode Island and current Rep. Joseph Kennedy III (D) Massachusetts, I got to know quite well, as they represented districts in my TV market. Rep. Joe Kennedy’s primary loss to Sen. Edward Markey (D) Massachusetts last week was a stunner to many, as he became the first Kennedy to ever lose a primary race in the Bay State.

“A Kennedy Comeback?” -- In four generations of that political dynasty, that’s an amazing track record. When I first met him in 2013 after he was sworn-in, I addressed him as Congressman and he said, “Mark, just call me Joe!” He has that Kennedy charm and at 38-years old, I suspect we’ll see his name on a ballot again, and often. As for Ed Markey, he will be 80 years old and finishing his 50th year in Congress at the end of his new term. If he calls it quits, watch for a Kennedy comeback.

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“The Job of Jobs” – We’ve said here many times that presidents are elected and reelected in large part on the state of the economy. Prior to COVID-19, the U.S. economy was really cooking with the best market performances and the lowest unemployment in 50 years. But then the bottom fell out. Over the last four months, there have been signs of recovery. In May the unemployment rate dropped from 15.4 percent to 13.3 percent, and 2.5 million people went back to work. In June unemployment again dropped to 11.1 percent and 4.8 million jobs were created or people returned to the workplace. In July unemployment fell again to 10.2 percent with 1.7 million returning to work. In August unemployment was back in single digits at 8.4 percent with 1.4 million jobs filled.

“Analyzing the Economy” – The political fallout from an improving economy is helping President Trump. His poll numbers are up and he’s closing the gap with Joe Biden still in the lead. The question is, will it be enough for reelection? The September jobs report will be the last before Election Day, and comes out the first Friday in October. If the positive trend continues, that can only help Trump. But every silver lining, has a cloud, if I can turn that old phrase around. Despite the trend and good numbers through August, there are still 11.5 million Americans out of work, compared to pre-COVID numbers. That must be extremely concerning to the Trump campaign.

“The Politics of Policing” – This past week President Trump went to Kenosha, Wisconsin in support of law enforcement officers in the Badger State. “These are not acts of peaceful protest but, really, domestic terror,” said Trump. He was widely criticized for going, but had he not gone he would have been criticized even more. Democratic nominee Joe Biden also traveled to Kenosha by weeks end, even meeting with paralyzed shooting victim Jacob Blake. Like Trump, Biden was also criticized in some quarters for politicizing the shooting. Look, policing is probably in the top-five issues to voters this year, so of course each side is going to try to score points.

“What Say the Polls?” – The latest composite of all the major polls at Real Clear Politics has it 49.6 percent for Biden, to 42.6 percent for Trump. The Electoral College map also shows Biden with a 212 to 115 advantage over Trump, with 211 votes listed as toss-ups. Can Trump still win? Well there was similar polling data in 2016 and he won, so it could happen again. If he does, my bet says he wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote again. That would be the first time in U.S. history where a president was elected, and reelected, without winning the popular vote either time. By the way, right now Biden leads in nine of the twelve battleground states.

“Debating the Debates” – As is tradition, there will be four debates, three presidential, and one vice-presidential. The presidential contests will be September 29 in Cleveland, October 15 in Miami, and October 22 in Nashville. The vice-presidential debate is October 7 in Salt Lake City. In some election cycles the debates have been exciting and in others they were completely flat. Given the combative nature of these two nominees, these might be the most entertaining debates we’ve ever had. Perhaps not enlightening, but yes, entertaining. With seven percent of voters still undecided, the debates could be influential. Stay tuned!

“Black Votes Matter” – As I have been predicting for weeks, the Biden campaign is making a serious outreach to African American voters, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, all states Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. From 2012, when President Obama was seeking a second term, to 2016 with Hillary Clinton as the nominee, black voter participation fell off sharply nationwide, especially in these states. African American voter turnout dropped by 12 percent in both Wisconsin and Michigan, and that paved the way for Trump’s win.

This weekend, I am looking for comments from undecided voters. Why haven’t you decided yet, and what issues matter to you most? Leave a comment below.

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states, and most of the Washington, DC media market. 

 

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