What the 1980 Election Says About 2020 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - August 9, 2020

Sunday, August 09, 2020

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Some elections are unique, and some elections are very similar. The times, issues, and circumstances all change, or do they? Sometimes an election offers eerily similar dynamics, and history offers us lessons. I’ve covered every presidential contest since 1980, and to me, 2020 is starting to look quite similar. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“A Troubled Incumbency” – Normally being an incumbent is a huge advantage. Studies show that incumbents win reelection 96 percent of the time, on average. Incumbents have the advantages of large name recognition, news coverage, and the powerful notion that voters like to side with a “winner” often irrespective of the issues, (the “bandwagon” effect). Incumbency can attract donations, too! But in 1980 President Jimmy Carter, and in 2020 President Donald Trump had huge segments of the population that thought they were doing a bad job. Negative approval ratings are like rust on a car. It can spread like cancer.

“Sometimes an Outsider Can’t Fit In” – Carter and Trump both ran as outsiders who were going to shake up Washington, D.C. as never before. They arrived in town and continued to do just that, much to their peril. Oddly, both men arrived with their party in power in both chambers of Congress. You’d think that would have led to massive legislation being passed, but it didn’t. Each man had a lot of intraparty fighting with leaders on their own side. Contrast that with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, who also ran as outsiders, but embraced official Washington as soon as they arrived. Reagan and Clinton also had to deal with the other party running parts of Congress at times, but both men worked across the aisle with bipartisan success. What a study in contrast!

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“Unforeseen Troubles” – The world of politics is full of sharp turns, and unexpected surprises, not all of them for the better. How could Jimmy Carter have known when he first ran and won in 1976, that Iranian rebels would seize our embassy in Tehran and take 52 Americans hostage in 1979? How could Donald Trump have perceived in 2016, that a pandemic of Coronavirus would appear in 2020? Presidents are usually chosen based on economic circumstances, often beyond the control of the White House. In both 1980 and 2020, a lot of voters simply felt the incumbent mismanaged the crisis. And in both years the economy plummeted into a widespread mess with the incumbent unable to spur a rebound.

“Trapped in the White House” – In 1979 and 1980, President Carter employed what came to be known as, “The Rose Garden Strategy.’ He essentially barricaded himself in the White House with top advisors, trying to make it look like they were “working the problem” 24/7. But with little progress to report, the perception was that nothing was getting done. Fast forward to 2020, with President Trump hosting often contentious daily briefings with his White House Task Force on Covid-19. But the numbers got worse, and the animosity with the press corps heightened, and the briefings ended for three months. As with 1980, it appeared in 2020 that the Commander-in-Chief wasn’t effective, and that led to a sharp drop in public confidence.

“Senate Scrutiny” – Sometimes a presidential election loss can be so devastating, with a “reverse coattail” effect. In 1980 Democrats controlled the U.S. Senate with a 58 to 41 majority. President Carter led in the polls most of the year, and even beat back a primary challenge from Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) Massachusetts. While Carter’s chances at a second term were not guaranteed, it seemed implausible that Democrats could lose the Senate. Well guess what happened? Ronald Reagan won an Electoral College landslide, and in doing so his coattails were so strong that Republicans won a net gain of 12 seats and took control of the Senate. Even legends such as Sen. George McGovern (D) South Dakota, Sen. Birch Bayh (D) Indiana, and Sen. Herman Tallmadge (D) Georgia, went down to defeat.

“Senate 2020” – The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll shows the Electoral College count at 212 for former Vice President Joe Biden, 115 for President Trump, with 211 in toss-up states, (again you need 270 to win). Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate today, a much narrower lead than Democrats held in 1980. If Biden wins big, he could be a factor in states such as North Carolina, Maine and Colorado which have incumbent Republican senators who are in trouble. With a Biden win, Democrats only need a net-gain of three Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber.

“The Challenger’s Age” – While Carter and Trump were vulnerable for a second term, their backers often poked fun at the age and perceived mental acuity of the opponent. In 1980, Ronald Reagan was 68 and the oldest nominee for president. Critics thought he was sometimes “in a fog.” Fast forward to 2020, and Joe Biden is 77 years old, and surpasses Reagan as the oldest nominee. Critics have also attacked Biden’s perceived mental state and view his sometimes “doddering debate performances” as a major weakness. Obviously in 1980, the strategy failed and the “old man” won. Will history repeat itself in 202? Stay tuned!

I’d like to hear your thoughts on how the 1980 and 2020 presidential elections compare. Leave a comment below.

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, D.C. media market. 

 

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