New Year’s Political Predictions – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—January 3, 2021
Sunday, January 03, 2021
2020 was a weird political year, and 2021 portends to be no different. Yes, we are getting a new President of the United States and a new Congress, but the nation is on a political roller-coaster ride, so I think we’ll see a lot of shenanigans to come. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.
“To Stimulate; or Not to Stimulate?” – That is the big question! President Trump has now signed the latest COVID-19 aid package, but there could be political consequences, even though he is leaving office. While the president won a lot of points for suggesting $2,000 checks for each American (after the fact), rather than the approved $600. Well, $600 is still better than nothing to most folks. Talk about strange political bedfellows, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez came out in support of Trump’s $2,000 idea. It was House Republicans who blocked the House Democrats unanimous consent attempt, though it eventually was approved. Right now, getting the $2,000 version through the U.S. Senate looks grim. Or is it?
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“The Georgia Special Elections” -- If nothing definitive happens with the stimulus bill by the time a new Congress is sworn in on January 3, you’d basically have to start over. So, at least the $600 version has gone through and many are getting checks already. The problem for Republicans is that the Georgia Special Election for the two U.S. Senate seats is on January 5. If it looks like your party’s obstruction blocked either the $600 checks, or the $2,000 checks, there could be a backlash. The GOP needs to hold at least one of the Georgia U.S. Senate seats, or it loses control of the upper chamber. This is high drama at the 11th hour Wow!!
“So Where Do They Stand?” – The new Congress will be sworn in on Sunday January 3rd. While it’s now 53-47 GOP vs. DEM, those favoring the $2,000 checks will have to flip three Republicans to bring it to a 50-50 tie. VP Mike Pence (who is in office through noon on January 20th), could come in and break the tie. Both Senators David Perdue and Kelley Loeffler (R) Georgia support the bigger checks. This is a vote that could save them as Georgia voters go the polls on Tuesday, January 5. This is a very tight, narrow window for the GOP to make its best case to retain control of the Senate.
“My Prediction?” – I think if Senate Majority Leader McConnell finds a way to let this vote happen, he’ll save his majority in the U.S. Senate. It’s his political “Hail Mary Pass!” But as I’ve written over the past few weeks, it’s hard to imagine split vote, where Democrats and Republicans would each win a seat. My prediction: Democrats win both seats and control of the U.S. Senate.
“Trump Tweets Trumpet” – It’s an easy prediction where you don’t need a crystal ball. Even when he leaves office at noon on January 20th, I believe we’ll see a constant barrage of tweets from @realDonaldTrump on Twitter. He’ll be more relentless that ever. This is a man who hates to lose. This is a president looking for a comeback in 2024.
“GOP Presidential Announcements” – Yes, Trump plans to run again 2024, so he sets the bar. A lot of traditional, mainstream Republicans want him out, so expect an early declaration season. With Joe Biden taking the oath at age 78, many see him as a one-termer, passing the legacy onto Vice-president Kamala Harris. Former Governors Jeb Bush (R) Florida, Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina and John Kasich (R) Ohio lead the list of GOP options.
“Bipartisan Biden” – One strategy that I anticipate Biden will employ, is to co-opt voters from the other side of the aisle on certain issues. President Clinton was a master of this and got a lot of bipartisan legislation passed with Republicans in the 1994-96 term. The one area where they never succeeded was on immigration reform. In fact, the nation has not seen any significant immigration legislation since 1989, and it was considered weak at that. If Biden can get some relatively tough immigration legislation passed, he can neutralize Trump on the issue and make the opposition less viable in 2024. And yes folks, people are already strategizing for 2024. That’s politics.
“The Art of the Immigration Deal?” – Giving the so-called dreamers their dream might be a starting point. The latest estimates say there are approximately 700,000 “dreamers” in the United States. These are children who were brought here illegally by their parents. The theory goes that young children should not be penalized for the sins or illegal actions of their parents. In fact, many kids were born on U.S. soil (making them legal residents), even though their parents may have broken the law in how they crossed the border.
What would you like to see as the top legislative priority of 2021? Leave a message below.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market, He is a MINDSETTER political analyst for www.GoLocal.Prov.com and all of its affiliates.
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