A Political Hail Mary Pass Falls Short – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - December 13, 2020

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Defeated President Donald Trump

It’s a tired cliché, but it’s true that, “It’s not over ‘til the fat lady sings.” Well, she has belted out, loud and clear now, that the election is over, and Joe Biden will be the next president. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“The Ultimate Rejection” – On Friday night the U.S. Supreme Court voted not to consider an unusual lawsuit from the Texas Attorney General, aiming to review and overturn election results in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Yes, flipping all those states could put Trump into a second term, but the case was dismissed without merit. The vote was 7-2, with arch-conservative Justices Clarence Thomas (appointed by Bush 1), and Samuel Alito (appointed by Bush 2), as the only ones to support hearing the Trump argument. Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett – all appointed by Trump – rejected hearing his case. Wow! Chief Justice Roberts (Bush 2), was also joined in the majority with Justices Kagan, Sotomayor (both Obama), and Breyer (Clinton). 

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“Supreme Court Analysis” – There is a pedestrian assumption, that if a president elevates someone to the Supreme Court, that justice will toe the party line and vote in favor of that president’s position on any case, feeling duty bound. Well, it’s a false premise. The history books are filled with cases where seemingly partisan justices voted their conscience and legal opinion, that contrasted with the party’s. Chief Justice John Roberts, a Republican appointee, was the swing vote that upheld Democrat President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act.

 

“What’s Next?” – The Electoral College members in each state will gather on Monday to cast their votes. Will there be so-called “faithless electors” who cast a ballot for someone other than for whom their state voted? There always seems to be a couple that do that, but the outcome of the election will not be changed, as Trump would need 39 votes to switch. Some of the court cases may work themselves up the legal food chain in the courts of appeal, but since Trump has lost every legal battle to date, the appeals are unlikely to be successful. You must present evidence of fraud, cheating or malfeasance. You can’t just opine that things seem suspicious. Hard evidence matters.

 

“Mailing it In!” – Given the record voter turnout in many states this year, I suspect some legislatures and governors may move to make mail-in voting a permanent option. But will these efforts succeed? Historically Democrats have supported more options, as it increases voter turnout especially among underrepresented groups. Republicans have opposed mail-in voting suspecting it could open the floodgates for fraud and cheating. But given the success of this year, I wonder if some in the GOP will have a change of heart? The bottom line, right now Republicans hold 26 of the governor’s seats, to 24 Democrats. Republicans control 26 legislatures, to 19 for Democrats, with one state split, and four states are still counting votes. Some Republican hearts and minds would have to change.

 

“Watching Georgia” – All of us political junkies are awaiting the results of the two U.S. Senate races in Georgia that will ultimately determine which party controls the Senate. The runoff is January 5, but early voting begins this coming Monday, December 14. Given the unprecedented number of people nationwide who voted in-person early, or by mail-in absentee vote this year, the early voting push and turnout will be critical in what should be two closes races. Here’s why: If I vote by mail on December 12, and then a candidate makes a major gaffe or has a scandal on December 17, there’s nothing I can do. Votes are votes, and a last-minute scandal won’t allow me to change my ballot. This is crucial among the all-important independent voting bloc.

 

“Turnout Matters” – It’s a trite, corny, and overused cliché in media reporting on elections.  Reporters doing live broadcasts from polling places on Election Day saying, “Well now it’s all about turnout!!” Well, duh? Talk about stating the obvious! But there is a vert critical difference here. Presidential elections drive high voter turnout, especially when there is controversy. Minnesota had a staggering 80 percent voter turnout in November, which is a record for a presidential election. Plus, there are always interesting down-ballot and local races that turn people out as well. Special elections tend to have far lower turnout, since there are usually just one or two items on the ballot. Generally speaking, the rule of thumb is low voter turnout helps Republicans; high voter turnout helps Democrats.

 

What are your thoughts, hopes, and wishes about the two U.S. Senate races in Georgia?  Add a comment below.

 

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Mark Curtis, Ed.D. is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER columnist for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.

 

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