2020 Election Day Predictions – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—November 1, 2020

Sunday, November 01, 2020

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

I LOVE Election Day. As one of my former co-workers used to say, “Mark, this is your Super Bowl!!” And she was right! I’ve been covering politics for 43 years (and have watched it closely since I was a little kid, believe it or not). So, every two years I offer my predictions the Sunday before Election Day. Sometimes, I’m right on the money (2008), and sometimes I am way off the mark (2016). Let’s roll the dice and “brunch” on campaign 2020!

 

“Biden Trumps Trump” – I predict, based on polling results, interviews, and analysis, that former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump, but with a much closer margin than some of the other pundits are predicting. My calculations have Biden with 281 Electoral College votes (and winning the popular vote), to 257 Electoral College votes for Mr. Trump.

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“How Does That Happen?” – Biden will win every state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, but he will take back to the Democrat column four states that Trump seized last time around. I predict the states that Biden will flip are North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. Trump will hold on to Florida and Biden’s native state Pennsylvania, but it won’t be enough. But this is “thin ice” territory. Of the four states I predict Biden will flip, if Trump hangs on and wins just North Carolina, or Michigan, he’ll be re-elected. Winning only Wisconsin or Arizona puts him two or three votes short. In many ways, this race really hinges on North Carolina and Michigan.

 

“Fossil Fuel Fiasco” – You never want to make a fatal gaffe or statement on the waning days of any campaign. Of the oil industry in the final debate Biden said, “I would transition away from the oil industry, yes. The oil industry pollutes, significantly. It must be replaced by renewable energy over time. Over time.” Pennsylvania is the nation’s 17th largest oil producing state, but it is the 3rd largest coal producing state, and the 2nd largest natural gas producing state. A late-campaign remark like that in a big fossil fuel producing state is dicey. I’m not arguing the environmental issue here, but rather the pragmatism of offending voters connected to this industry at the 11th hour. Biden’s late campaign gamble in his home state could backfire.

 

“Trump’s Fossil Fuel Opening” -- Donald Trump, sensing a strategic Biden mistake, immediately shot back, “Oh, that’s a big statement. He’s going to destroy the oil industry. Will you remember that, Texas? Will you remember that, Pennsylvania?” In the final days of a campaign you may be winning, you don’t want to give soft-support voters a chance to reconsider.

 

“Timing is NOT Everything” – COVID-19 has changed everything, including the way we vote, and more importantly WHEN we vote. As of Friday, October 330, many news outlets were reporting that 86 million Americans had already voted by mail-in absentee ballots, or by in-person early voting. Even when COVID-19 is long gone, I predict this will be the new normal for how America votes. Oregon and Washington State have done it for decades, and it’s convenient, easy, and safe. The cases of widespread fraud that some claim, have simply not materialized.

 

“Senate Swings” – I have written extensively about how the 2020 election parallels the 1980 election. It has eerie similarities. Here’s a link to review that analysis: https://www.golocalprov.com/politics/what-the-1980-election-says-about-2020-the-sunday-political-brunch-august-9. The thing all of us pundits missed in 1980, was not the Reagan landslide, but rather his strong coattails that helped defeat 12 Democrat incumbents in the U.S. Senate, giving the GOP control of that body for the first time in 26 years.

 

“Where Senate Democrats Gain?” – The current makeup of the United States Senate is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats. With a Biden win, Democrats need a mere three-vote gain, with the vice president as a tiebreaker, to gain the majority. If Trump wins, Democrats need four Senate seat gains to arrive at a 51-seat majority. I predict they will win the Senate regardless of who wins the White House. I estimate the Democrats will win five seats, including races in Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia and Colorado. After Election Day it will be 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans in the U.S. Senate.

 

What are your last-minute votes, and why? Leave a comment below on your predictions.

 

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER columnist for www.GoLocal.Prov.com and all its affiliates.

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