Marching on as a Government Divided – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—November 20, 2022

Sunday, November 20, 2022

You’d think the world of politics might take a break and be relatively quiet, one week after the 2022 election, but that did not happen. There was a lot of backroom dealing and front-page headline stealing going on all week from both sides. So, let’s “brunch” on that!

 

“Trump’s Announcement” – “I’m a victim. I will tell you,” Donald Trump said as he announced his 2024 run for president. The campaign announcement at Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida was no accident. Trump wanted to portray the raid on his home earlier this year, with the FBI seizing buckets of documents as a purely partisan Biden Justice Department attack on him was personal and unethical. But the setting was muted, and the crowd reaction was weak as if some felt they were at a boring cocktail party. I think it was a tactical mistake. Trump should have rented an arena, with a 20,000+ capacity. He is unparalleled in those events and generates huge energy and buzz. He should have altered the setting. Politics is a lot about nuance and big-picture images.

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“January 6th Subpoena” – Well, Tuesday came and went without Donald Trump appearing before the House January 6th Committee. He was subpoenaed to testify, but he defied that order by challenging it in federal court. We’ll see if it ever happens. I suspect the new GOP House majority leadership will simply disband the January 6th committee when the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd. Then on Friday, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a Special Counsel to investigate possible criminal charges against Trump, including for the January 6th riots.

 

“Mister Speaker?” – Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California won his race for Speaker of the House in the Republican Caucus, on a vote of 188-31, despite a challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R) Arizona, who once chaired the hard-right Freedom Caucus. There has also been an effort to get former President Donald Trump voted in as Speaker because you do not actually have to be a member of the House to be its leader. An effort to make former Sen. Bob Dole, Speaker in the late 90s also created chatter but never materialized. All drama, no payoff here. Current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) California said on Thursday she would serve out her term, but not seek a minority leadership role.

 

“Minority Leader?” – Well, the Senate also had a leadership fight, on the minority side. Sen. Rick Scott (R) Florida challenged Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky, the current Minority Leader. Many in the GOP caucus blamed Donald Trump for not carrying his candidates across the finish line to a Senate majority. Others say it was McConnell’s fault, while still others say both men are to blame. On Wednesday, the Republican caucus voted to keep McConnell as its leader. The vote was 37-10, with one senator voting “present.”

 

“Senate v. House” – Democrats will control the Senate and Republicans will control the House. Can they get stuff done? I think back to President Reagan’s first term, when Republicans took control of the Senate, while Democrats held the House. They got a lot done, mostly because enough conservative Democrats in the House would vote with Republicans and support Reagan’s agenda for income tax cuts and a military build-up. It can work again, so long as they find the right coalition on certain issues. Democrat President Bill Clinton and the Republican-led Congress also got a lot done together in 1995-96, even as an election loomed.

 

“Why Georgia Remains Important” – Now that Democrats have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate, with 50 votes (and VP Harris as the tiebreaker), some are diminishing the importance of the Georgia runoff election on December 6, between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) Georgia and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker. Yes, even if Warnock loses, Democrats still hold the majority. But if Warnock prevails, the Dems will have a 51-49 advantage, and that will mitigate the power of lone-wolf Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia. Manchin, who often torpedoed the Biden Administration, would no longer be in a position to do so, at least not by himself.

 

“Implications for 2024” – Speaking of Joe Manchin, he just got a very serious challenger this week if he decides to run for reelection in 2024. Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia, announced Tuesday he would give up that safe seat, and run for the Republican Senate nomination in 2024. It could be a crowded field in a very red state, where the Governor’s race is also high stakes. Both offices could attract a crowded GOP primary field. Some have even touted Manchin as a possible presidential contender in 2024.

 

“Two Parties: No Bench” – In 2024, Donald Trump will be 78 years old. Joe Biden will be 81. There’s talk that if Biden chooses not to run, Hillary Clinton may jump in. She’ll be 77. There are people frustrated on both sides of the aisle, feeling that their parties seemingly have no “bench strength.” Yes, Democrats have Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California or Sen. Mark Warner (D) Virginia, while Republicans have Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, or former Gov. Nikki Haley, (R) South Carolina, no one has really been tested on the national stage politically. By the way, their respective ages are Newsom 55, Warner 67, DeSantis 44, and Haley 50. And you certainly can’t rule out Vice President Kamala Harris, age 58, and former Vice President Mike Pence, age 63. We’ll see if voters want the status quo or want to usher in the next generation.

 

“The Pence Suspense” – The former vice president is no longer holding back in his criticism of his ex-boss. He talked that day about fleeing the Capitol as some rioters yelled, “Hang Mike Pence!” Pence told ABC News, “The president’s words [on 6 January 2021] were reckless and his actions were reckless. The president’s words that day at the rally endangered me and my family and everyone at the Capitol building.” As for Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, Pence said, “I think we have better choices.” Will Pence run? Stay tuned.

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