Can We Put Election 2022 in the Rear View Mirror?—“The Sunday Political Brunch”
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Republicans predicted a national “red wave.” Democrat President Joe Biden on Wednesday called the Election a “strong night” for Democrats. As is often the case in politics, the hyperbole on both sides was exaggerated. Look, there was good and bad for both sides, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle (though we are still awaiting outcomes in key races). Let’s “brunch” on that this week.
“It’s Not Over Until It’s Over!” – I hate to quote famed baseball manager Yogi Berra twice in the same sentence, but this also “looking like Déjà vu all over again.” In 2020, the two U.S. Senate races in Georgia went to a runoff election on January 5, to decide which party controlled the U.S. Senate. That day Raphael Warnock (D) Georgia prevailed, as did Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) Georgia. That tied the U.S. Senate at 50-50. But with VP Kamala Harris sitting as the U.S. Senate President, she gets to be the tie-breaking vote. Up until late Saturday night we were looking at the exact same scenario. The race was going down to a December 6th Georgia runoff where a Warnock win could again give us the 50-50 tie, and a Harris-vote Democrat majority. Unreal! What were the odds? But, a late Saturday night surge in Nevada gave Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) Nevada the come-from=behind win, and secured the Democrat’s majority.
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“My Predictions?” – My batting average is good! In the ten battleground states I analyzed in recent weeks, I did pretty well. I predicted Republicans would hold seats in close races in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. I successfully predicted Democrats would hold key seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Arizona, and flip Pennsylvania, again all correct. I predicted a GOP gain in Nevada, but just missed. And while I predicted Herschel Walker would win barely on Election Day in Georgia, I doubt he can win in a stand-alone runoff election. Walker was helped by the coattails of Gov. Brian Kemp (R) Georgia in November, but only the Walker-Warnock runoff is on the December ballot. Score the ten Senate races for Curtis as: eight correct, one incorrect and Georgia undecided.
“The House Will Come Home for the GOP” – As I write this Saturday, Republicans have won 211 seats, and the Democrats have won 203. 218 are needed to win the majority, so it’s more in reach for the GOP right now, with 21 seats yet to be decided. Last week I predicted 227 Republicans, to 208 Democrats. I now predict a more modest 220-215 Republican margin. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California will be the Speaker of the House and Rep. Steve Scalise (R) Louisiana, who barely survived an assassination attempt a few years back, will be Majority Leader.
“But, Maybe Not So Fast!” -- All of a sudden, Kevin McCarthy does not necessarily have a lock on the Speaker of the House job. A group of 43 House members known as the Freedom Caucus is so far withholding its support. This group represents the most conservative lawmakers and consists of almost one-third of the House Republicans. Keep an eye on this.
“Trump Trumps Trump” – It’s been a strange 2022 election cycle when it comes to former President Donald Trump. He endorsed slates of hand-picked candidates for House and Senate races across the nation. In the primaries, by several accounts, Trump-backed candidates won 78 percent of their races. But fast forward to November and for many, the Trump endorsements became a curse, especially if the Trump candidates were also so-called 2020 “election deniers.” In the vast majority of races, the deniers were defeated in 2022. In Arizona, the top four statewide GOP nominees, including governor’s race, were “election deniers”. All of them lost. I wonder if this means the issue, or theme, has just run its course?
“Will Trump Run?” – I have been suggesting for the past year that if the Trump-endorsed slate of Senate and House candidates in 2022 won, then it would be hard to deny him the 2024 presidential nomination. His problem is many of his candidates lost. In fact, his only real hope now is if Herschel Walker delivers U.S. Senate control in the Georgia runoff. As of now the main new Trump-endorsed Senate candidate to win was J.D. Vance in Ohio, and I maintain the “Hillbilly Elegy” author’s story was so compelling he would have easily won, even without the Trump endorsement.
“Trump’s Talks” -- Trump has signaled in a number of recent speeches, that he is a go for the 2024 presidential race. "Getting millions more votes in 2020 than 2016 and likewise, getting more votes than any sitting president in the history of our country by far. And now in order to make our country successful, safe, and glorious again, I will probably have to do it again," he said in Texas last week, ahead of Election Day. The anticipated day of his announcement is November 15th, the day after he has been subpoenaed to appear before the House January 6th Committee, where he may, or may not show up. My bet is that he is in. Trump likes a fight. And since he lost the last one, he is bruising for a rematch.
“Dissing DeSantis” – Donald Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis (R) were strong and important allies. Not anymore. It’s clear that many in the GOP are done with Trump and want a viable alternative path to the White House. They see DeSantis as their ticket. Trump is not amused, issuing a statement calling DeSantis an “average” governor and “playing games” after the midterms. Trump has been calling his chief rival "Ron DeSanctimonious," so this could get ugly as we go on. Trump’s legal home is in Florida, so you have two rivals in a state that is a “must-win” for any Republican presidential candidate.
“So, Who are the GOP Alternatives?” – DeSantis obviously comes to mind first, as Florida has the third highest number of Electoral College votes in the nation. He was elected to Congress three times and then elected governor twice. He’s a heavyweight in a state that the GOP needs to win. Former U.N. Ambassador and Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina, is another option, and former Govs. John Kasich (R) Ohio and Jeb Bush (R) Florida are still viable in my mind.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
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