Just One Month to the Primaries — Political Experts on Money, Messaging, and “Going Negative"
GoLocalProv News Team
Just One Month to the Primaries — Political Experts on Money, Messaging, and “Going Negative"
GoLocal spoke with political experts about what could prove to be the determining factors in the Congressional and gubernatorial primaries -- and when “going negative” works -- and when it doesn’t.
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Differentiating Factors
In the Democratic primary in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, Omar Bah, Joy Fox, Seth Magaziner, Sarah Morgenthau, and David Segal are squaring off for the seat being vacated by Congressman Jim Langevin.
“This is a race about two things: name recognition and the ability to beat Allan Fung in November. The Democratic candidates’ issue positions don’t differentiate them from one another, but Seth Magaziner’s experience places him leaps and bounds beyond the rest,” said Jennifer Lawless, the Political Science Department Chair at the University of Virginia — who herself ran against Langevin in the 2006 Democratic Congressional primary in Rhode Island.
On Friday, Magaziner ignored other Democrats when he took a shot at Republican Fung in his comments following the U.S. House of Representatives passing the Inflation Reduction Act.
Lawless said that in addition to name recognition and campaign coffers, the seeming lack of “new ideas” — and differentiation — among the candidates hurts the Democratic pool.
“In terms of name recognition, voters have already elected him statewide, so Magaziner is a known quantity in CD-2. Moreover, he can make the case better than anyone else that he’s able to defeat Fung because of his previous campaign experience, donor network, and national endorsements, including Jim Langevin’s,” said Lawless. “I’m all for fresh faces and new ideas – I ran as one 16 years ago for this very seat – but fresh faces and new ideas have a hard time breaking through. And frankly, the fresh faces this time around don’t have many new ideas.”
“At this point, it seems like Magaziner enjoys a massive advantage over his opponents in the CD-2 primary due to his high name recognition (thanks to being a statewide elected official for eight years) and his large campaign war chest,” said Myers. “The dynamics of the race would have to change significantly – and fast -- for the other Democratic candidates to have a real shot.”
As for the Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary between Dan McKee, Matt Brown, Helena Foulkes, Nellie Gorbea, and Luis Daniel Muñoz, Myers offered the following.
“I expect that the percentage of Democratic primary voters who will choose their preferred gubernatorial nominee based on the candidates’ policy platforms will be relatively small,” said Myers. “Most voters are not sufficiently engaged to conduct a detailed analysis of what each of the candidates stands for and how well it aligns with their views. Other factors – including name recognition, perceptions of competence, endorsements, and the ground game – will matter more.”
And with some polls showing undecideds as high as 40% — Myers said what can be counted on is that voters can expect a barrage of ads in the coming weeks.
“The burst of campaign spending I’m expecting to see in the weeks leading up to the primary will matter a lot in influencing the undecideds,” he added.
With just weeks to go, Myers and Lawless weighed in on whether or not candidates will “go negative” on opponents — and the dynamics of doing so.
“It depends on whether one candidate breaks out of the pack and becomes the clear frontrunner. At this time, the race looks very close; Gorbea may have a slight lead, but it isn’t much of one,” said Myers of the gubernatorial primary. “Within this context, it makes more sense for the candidates to raise their own profiles among undecided voters rather than attack each other. If a poll were to come out tomorrow showing that, say, Gorbea has a sizable lead, I would expect that we’d start to see a lot of negative ads from the Foulkes and McKee campaigns directed at her.”
Lawless — who serves as an Editor of the American Journal of Political Science — looked at the prospects of “going negative” in the Congressional primary.
“Going negative is often the most effective way to differentiate yourself from your opponent. I’m not talking about personal attacks, but rather bashing an opponent for issue positions, previous votes, ethical improprieties, etc. After all, drawing contrasts is important to voters – it provides them with information that can help them decide, especially in a primary when a candidate’s party identification is no help,” said Lawless.
“Part of the reason we’ve seen so little negative campaigning in the congressional race is that Magaziner has no reason even to acknowledge the existence of his opponents. He’s ahead and needs to focus on November. Part of his success in the primary will be predicated on convincing the electorate that he offers the best shot to defeat Fung,” Lawless added. “So he’s better off making the case as though he’s already the nominee. And when he is, there’s no question that he’ll go negative against Fung. In fact, he already has. As for the other congressional candidates, they seem to want to focus on why they’d be great choices, and not why Magaziner isn’t. That’s a lovely way to campaign, but it’s not a way to win. My bet is that the other candidates will begin shooting daggers in the final week or two, but it’ll be too late.”
Editor’s Note: Lawless has been a contributor to Seth Magaziner’s campaign.