Political Predictions for 2024 – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - December 31, 2023

Sunday, December 31, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden PHOTO: 2020 Debate

The “Brunch” remains on the road this week in the key, battleground state of Florida. We are on the verge of the primary and caucus season, so I am already going to go out on a limb with some of my 2024 political predictions. My analysis is based on polling data, current events, and trends, as well as historical patterns. It’s not a reflection of my desires. In short, this is what I predict will happen, but not necessarily a forecast of what I want to happen. Let’s “brunch” on my “educated guess” or predictions this week:

 

“President Trump Elected in 2024” – For only the second time in our history, a president will be elected to two non-consecutive terms. President Grover Cleveland served in office from 1885 to 1889, and then again from 1893 to 1897. I believe the mathematics of the 2024 race, and the divisive nature of the candidates, will work in Trump’s favor. Never in my lifetime have I seen two candidates who were disliked by a significant percentage of their own party. It’s going to open the door for third-party candidates, who ultimately may influence who wins and loses. Follow my logic.

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“Manchin Gets In” – I predict (and have for some time now) that Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia will enter the race as an alternative candidate. Whether that means a “No Labels” party run with former Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) Utah, remains to be seen. But Manchin will get in. “The Hill” newspaper is reporting that Manchin will launch an organization known as “Americans Together.” Through that, he has already scheduled a “listening tour” stop in New Hampshire on January 12, just 11 days before its “first-in-the-nation” primary. The invitation says, “Please join the New England Council and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics for an in-person program with U.S. Senator Joe Manchin.”

 

“It Gets Complicated” – I don’t believe Manchin will be the only third-party entry. Yes, as always, there will be a Libertarian Party candidate, and other minor, organized efforts. But I am talking about a significant run by environmental activist and attorney Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., son of the late U.S. Senator and 1968 presidential candidate. And, well-known professor and liberal activist Cornel West is launching an independent presidential bid, after thinking of running as the Green Party candidate, as well as on the People’s Party slate.

 

“Do the Math and Show Your Work” – Let’s start with voter registration by party in the United States. According to Ballopedia.org in 2022, 39 percent of voters were registered as Democrats and 29 percent were Republicans. Twenty-nine percent say they are independent or unaffiliated, and 3 percent are members of an organized third party, such as Green or Libertarian. My point in laying this out is that even if each party were to win 100 percent of its own voters (quite a big task), it would not be enough to win the White House. The battleground is for that huge chunk of independents. They put a diverse list of people in the White House including Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Donald Trump (the first time), and then Joe Biden in his first Trump face-off.

 

“Why the Independents Matter so Much in 2024” – You have three distinct third-party options here, each with something of his own constituency. Cornell West is a hard-left, progressive, and may attract Democrats and independents who don’t think the party is progressive enough. Kennedy, despite his family’s Democratic Party roots, leans hard-right on some issues, especially in opposition to mandatory, massive vaccination efforts such as during COVID. He may pull some hard-right Republicans and independents. Manchin is the clear moderate centrist of all options and will probably pull the most independent voters. But Manchin has often offended his own party, so don’t count too many votes there, though he’ll get some.

 

“The Consequence” -- The last third-party candidate to get a considerable number of votes was independent Ross Perot in 1992, earning 19 percent of the popular vote, but no Electoral College votes. In 1968, independent George Wallace took 14 percent of the vote and won 46 Electoral College votes, after winning five states. In 2024, I bet the combined independent vote for West, Manchin, and Kennedy, will be in the range of 18 to 24 percent of the popular vote, with Manchin probably getting the most. None of them will win any states, so there will be zero Electoral College votes. But I predict Biden will suffer the biggest losses of independent voters, and that will toss the election to Trump. Even if Kennedy or Manchin dropped out, the remaining independents would still draw the Trump-clinching votes away from Biden.

 

“King of the Hill” – Now, many Republicans might be cheering what I just enumerated above. But I predict the party will sustain big losses in Congressional elections and lose control of the U.S. House. The GOP-led House has turned into the proverbial “gang that couldn’t shoot straight.” The caucus is simply in chaos. First of all, it took fifteen agonizing ballots to elect McCarthy Speaker of the House back in January 2023. His tenure would only last 10 months after his own caucus made him the first Speaker to be ousted in U.S. history. The ugly mess did not end there. Three other Republicans were nominated for Speaker but were voted down. Finally, Rep. Mike Johnson (R) Louisiana secured enough votes on the fourth ballot to win. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement from the caucus, nor will it engender public confidence across the land. Remember, Democrats only need a net gain of five House seats. It’s doable.

 

“Senate Sentiments” – Like the U.S. House, I predict the U.S. Senate will flip control but in the opposite fashion, from Democrats to Republicans. Presently it is 49 Republicans, with 48 Democrats, but they are joined by three independents in their cause for a 51 to 49 vote majority. But Republicans will flip two seats, in West Virginia and Montana, and that throws Senate control to the GOP.

 

“The Fallout?” - Either Justices Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito, or both, will retire in a second Trump term. Since he will have enough Republicans in the Senate to keep a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, GOP appointees could control the court for decades. Speaking of courts, this past week the Michigan Supreme Court allowed Trump to stay on that ballot there after the high court in Colorado removed him from the ballot last week. Minnesota’s Supreme Court says Trump can stay on that ballot, but Maine’s Secretary of State has booted Trump from the primary ballot there. This see-saw battle is headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

 

“In Memoriam – Senator Herb Kohl” – Late this week, I learned that my old boss and friend, Sen. Herb Kohl (D) Wisconsin, passed away at the age of 88. I am part of a small group of reporters who also spent time as a Congressional Aide (GoLocalProv’s Kate Nagle is another). You get a better perspective being on the inside and, “watching how the sausage gets made.” It gave me broader insight when I returned to covering politics full-time. Sen. Kohl served on the Judiciary Committee, and I was assigned to help prep him for the nomination of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. I’ll have more on my work with Kohl next week. May God rest his soul.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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