Why the Manchin Matrix Matters – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 26, 2023

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) PHOTO: Official Portrait

I have covered a lot of fascinating figures in my 46 years of covering American politics, and Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia easily makes my top ten. I first met him in 2008 covering the presidential campaign in the West Virginia Primary, where he helped lead Hillary Clinton to victory over Barack Obama. Manchin has been an engaging and energized political creature, whom I’ve spent a lot of time with these past eight years. But President Manchin? Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Who is Joe Manchin” – Manchin is a 76-year-old native of West Virginia, who was born into a family with businesses related to the coal industry, where they have made millions over the years. At the age of 32, he was elected to the State House of Delegates for two terms, before serving 10 years in the West Virginia State Senate. He was elected Secretary of State in 2000, and then Governor in 2004 and 2008. In 2010, he won a special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat long held by the late Sen. Robert C. Byrd and was reelected twice. He announced last week he would not seek another Senate term, but would instead potentially explore a “moderate, centrist” path to the White House, perhaps as a third-party candidate.

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“Manchin on Trump” – Manchin and former President Donald Trump had a sometimes cooperative, sometimes testy relationship. Both men are passionately pro-coal, in the evolving energy sector of the economy. But that’s about where it ends. There was a time, when Manchin voted for the Trump White House agenda, more than any other Democrat, and he may still hold that title. But the disconnects were brutal. Manchin firmly believes President Biden won fair and square in 2020. He also objects to Trump’s notion that only good Americans are aligned with Trump. But Manchin’s most vociferous opposition to Trump stems from the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021.

 

“The Summation has No Gray Area” - So here is Manchin on Trump in his own words. "I'll make it real clear even before you ask me the question. I think if Donald Trump is reelected you will have the end of democracy as we know it in America." Manchin mentioned Trump’s demonizing the other side, that only good Americans are on his side, and that the 2020 election was stolen. Then the January 6 attacks. "This is crazy stuff and if you go down that path, I'll guarantee you this democracy of ours will not succeed," said Sen. Manchin.

 

“On The Other Hand, Manchin Ain’t a Biden Fan Either” – This likely dates back to the Obama-Biden Administration’s so-called “War on Coal.” They proposed what was known as the Clean Power Plan, only to have it tossed by the U.S. Supreme Court. All along, Manchin knew where his bread got buttered and he was not a fan. Manchin told me, “If you continue to go down the path where Joe Biden has pulled clear to the left, with the liberals. He won't be able to repeat (as president) because that's not where this country is." Manchin added, "He didn't get elected because he said. 'I am a very progressive left member of the Democratic Party,' He got elected because they thought he was more of a centrist and a moderate. And this party system sucked him clear to the left and he's been there."

 

“Manchin’s Map Methodology” – So, as I reported here last week, Manchin is going on a nationwide road trip, to see if he can find enough moderate centrists who are interested in a possible third-party bid. The most recent weekly Morning Consult poll has the race Trump 43 percent, Biden 42 percent, 11 percent saying ‘someone else,’ with 4 percent saying they don’t know. I’m not a mathematician, but a combined 15 percent of non-Biden, non-Trump supporters in not a path to the White House. More than 80 percent of registered Democrats support Biden, and the same is true for registered Republicans supporting Trump. But voters registered as independent are significant. 38 percent of independents are backing Trump compared to 31 percent for Biden. Another 31 percent of independents are up for grabs as being undecided or wanting another choice. That’s Manchin’s opening.

 

“Mark’s Manchin Math Matrix” – OK, I feel like I’m throwing too many numbers at you. But math was always one of my best subjects in school, and it’s often the cornerstone basis for my analysis.  According to Ballotpedia.org, 39 percent of Americans are registered Democrats, to 29 percent for Republicans. Another 29 percent are independents, with 3 percent saying other party. That seems on the surface a big Biden advantage, but again Trump has a significant lead among independents and is now polling ahead of Biden in key battleground swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin. My point is, support from many voters is still in the proverbial, “only a mile wide, but an inch deep” category, and a lot are prone to switch. I think with the right message, a third party has a shot in 2024. The big concern among Democrats is will Manchin lure enough moderate, centrist Democrats away from Biden, causing Trump to win the election?

 

“But What if There Are More Than Three Options?” – And this is where the math may go off the rails. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has switched his run from Democrat to independent, and is polling in the low double-digits. Let’s say Manchin jumps in on the “No Labels” party with former Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) Utah? Do they pull from Trump, Biden, and Kennedy equally to form a critical mass, or will they be just a yawn? I just sense some odd things will happen. I just don’t think we are going to wind up with an 81-year-old Biden and a 77-year-old Trump as our only viable options. Of course, the 76-year-old Manchin is hardly a spring pup.

 

“On a Sad Note” – On Thanksgiving Day we mark the 60th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s assassination. I was just 4 and a ½ years old, but my memory of that week is as clear as a bell. The only thing I am as passionate about as politics is cooking. My parents and grandparents were Irish Catholics who voted for Richard Nixon. But they were nonetheless proud of Kennedy becoming the first Irish-Catholic U.S. president. My Grandma Peggy was so distraught, she said “Mark I am going to teach you how to help me make a whole Thanksgiving dinner, because I just can’t!” She taught (and cried), and I chopped and sautéed and baked. I can cook the entire meal from memory, without looking at the recipe. Out of something so sad, came something so special. I give thanks and will never forget!

 

“In Memoriam” – And finally this week, I pay homage to my late father-in-law, Richard M. Ware, Sr., who would have celebrated his 92nd birthday today. We lost Dick earlier this year. He served this nation for more than two decades in the U.S. Army and Air Force. For that, and more, we give thanks. Rest in peace. Also, my writer-sister Tyler, who helps me with editing, shares the same birthday. Happy Birthday Ty!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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