Can the Trump Train be Stopped? – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - January 21, 2024

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PhOTO: GoLocal

To no one’s surprise, former President Donald Trump won the Iowa Caucuses by a decisive margin. Now, it’s on to the first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday in New Hampshire. Sometimes these states are a good predictor of who the nominee will eventually be, while other years they don’t provide much clarity due to mixed results. So, what can we surmise in Campaign 2024 so far? Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Hogging in the Hawkeye State” – It wasn’t even close: Donald Trump won the Iowa GOP Caucus with 51 percent of the vote and 20 bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, took 21 percent of the vote, winning nine delegates. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina snared 19 percent of the vote with eight delegates. High-tech guru Vivek Ramaswamy was not a factor, winning just three delegates, with 8 percent of the vote. He promptly dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

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“Now it’s on to New Hampshire” – Heading to New Hampshire and the first-in-the-nation primary, the latest voter poll from St. Anslem College (taken the Friday before Iowa), shows Trump at 45 percent, Haley at 31 percent, former Gov. Chris Christie (R) New Jersey at 9 percent. DeSantis and Ramaswamy were tied at 6 percent a piece. Logically the big question is, with Christie and Ramaswamy now out, where does their collective 15 percent of the vote go? By virtue of Ramaswamy’s quick Trump endorsement and his disdain for Haley, most of his folks lean to Trump. Christie is no Haley fan either, and absolutely despises Trump, but has not endorsed DeSantis either.

 

“The Christie-Haley Dilemma” - Shortly before he dropped out, Christie was overheard on a hot microphone saying Haley was, "going to get smoked" in the remaining primaries. He also criticized the former South Carolina governor for failing to mention slavery as a cause of the Civil War in a recent interview. It’s weird, Christie despises Trump, so in New Hampshire his best bet at beating Trump would be his full-throated endorsement of Haley. In theory, his voters would make the poll Trump 45 percent to Haley 40 percent heading into primary day voting. That would put her within reach of taking down Trump, which Christie wants. But Christie can’t bring himself to pull the trigger. Politics often has no logic or direction.

 

“South Carolina Factor” – I don’t want to get too far out ahead of my skis, but Haley’s native South Carolina holds its primary on February 3rd, after New Hampshire. You’d think the home-state candidate would enjoy a big advantage, but she does not. The latest poll from the highly regarded www.fivethirtyeight.com shows Trump with 55 percent, Haley at 25 percent, and DeSantis at 12 percent. It is a rarity in American politics that a candidate has won a party’s nomination, let alone the White House, without capturing his or her own state in the process. Oddy enough, one of the rare exceptions was in 2016, when New York resident Hillary Clinton beat New York resident Donald Trump in their shared home state, but Trump won the White House. Also, a blow to Haley? Former presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (R) South Carolina has endorsed Trump.

 

“CBS Polls Paint Dilemma” – In full disclosure, I am not a CBS employee, but I work for three of its affiliates, and I am close with a few members of its DC staff. That said, the network has some fascinating new polling data. Of those hoping to unseat President Joe Biden, Haley actually appears to be the more popular choice. In a theoretical head-to-head match-up, Haley beats Biden 53 to 45 percent. But the same poll says Trump only beats Biden by 50 to 48 percent. Yes, these two have taken hard swipes at each other of late, but I still say Haley is Trump’s VP pick.

 

“Super Tuesday List” – I have mentioned here on occasion, that I believe Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia will indeed make a third-party bid for the White House. But Manchin is watching the early primaries and caucuses as a bellwether. He believes his final decision will be made by the Super Tuesday states on March 5th. Those states or territories are Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. In all, that is 16 primaries, with seven in blue-leaning, and seven in red-leaning locations, with two purple states. Eight other states will have primaries or caucuses before then, bringing the total to 24. I think we’ll know the nominees on the morning of March 6th.

 

“Polls: Immigration More Important than Economy” – On the eve of the Iowa Caucuses, polling by ABC News showed that Iowans felt the Southern Border immigration crisis was now the number one issue, yes, even topping the economy. I found that odd, since the economy is almost always number one, especially when money is tight after a period of high (but now dropping) inflation. How could this be? Well, here’s my theory: I can do things about inflation and the economy. I can take a part-time second job. I can drive less. I can cut out luxuries such as desserts. And I can use coupons. I simply can’t do a thing about unauthorized crossings at the Southern Border. And it’s only aggravated more by the images we see on the nightly news. People are frustrated and feel helpless and angry about immigration, especially when they feel the people in power are failing to do their jobs.

 

“Mean Tweets” – Wow, the Trump attacks on Haley came out like machine-gun fire on Tuesday evening. Sniping at Haley, but I bet she is still VP choice. Here’s my email inbox: 7:17 pm, from Donald J. Trump for President: “Nikki Haley is Weak on Immigration and Opposes a Border Wall.” Then at 7:18 pm, “Nikki Haley is Funded by Democrats, Wall Street & Globalists.” Just minutes later at 7:24 comes, “Nikki Haley Loves China.” And finally, at 7:27, “Nikki Haley Will Raise Your Taxes.” That’s a lot to unpack! And if you try to “kiss and make up” on a national party unity ticket, how do you walk all of that back? Again, in my analysis and opinion, I think Haley provides the keys to a second Trump White House stay. Why does he seemingly want to self-destruct?

 

“Odds and Ends” – As the week ended, there was a flurry of activity. Trump bragged in New Hampshire, “I’ve got more indictments than Al Capone.” Hunter Biden finally agreed to a deposition before the House Judiciary Committee. And Congress voted to avoid another government shutdown at the eleventh hour. Crazy!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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