It’s Not Over ‘til It’s Over, But We’re Close – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, January 28, 2024

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

View Larger +

PHOTO: Sean Ferigan, Unsplash

Watching the news network commentators on Tuesday night, you would have thought this was round-two of the famous Muhammed Ali v. Joe Frazier boxing matches, with Ali pounding the champ for the second straight week. Not so. (Historically, they split the first two of their legendary matches, with Ali winning the third). My point is, too many commentators say Haley is done. Yes, she’s on the ropes with “rubber legs,” but I don’t think she’s finished yet. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“The Results” – The final vote from New Hampshire was 54 percent for Donald Trump to 43 percent for Nikki Haley, with three percent scattered amongst the also rans. While some polls had her as close as nine percentage points, a loss by 11 points is not that bad. Can she still win? It would take a “Hail Mary Pass,” so I doubt it. But does she still make the conversation interesting going forward, and I believe the answer is, “Yes!”

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

 

“Teflon Trump” – Late Friday came word that a jury in New York City awarded $83 million dollars in damages to writer E. Jean Carroll after it found he defamed her in a previous civil case where he was found liable sexually assaulting her. As with all of his other legal troubles – that have not made a dent against him in the polls - I doubt this one will either. After the verdict Trump again tempted fate with the judge who censured him before, saying, “Absolutely ridiculous! I fully disagree with both verdicts and will be appealing this whole Biden-directed witch hunt focused on me and the Republican Party.” Carroll’s team praised the verdict.

 

“The Nevada Factor” – The next GOP contest is in Nevada on February 8th, less than two weeks away. Nevada is a hot mess as it has both a primary, and a caucus. Trump is in the primary, but not Haley. Haley is in the caucus, but not Trump. Or something like that. The latest poll from: www.RaceToTheWH.com has Trump ahead 73 percent to just 7 percent to Haley in Nevada. Look, the whole state system is mixed up, so pay no attention to Nevada. Pardon the pun but, “place your bets elsewhere.” However, this could be a “must-win” state in November!

 

“South Carolina is a MUST Win for Haley” – Regardless of all the long-term theories, the next big Trump v. Haley showdown is in the contested state primary in her home state, South Carolina, on February 24th. The latest RealClear Politics Composite Poll has Trump way ahead in South Carolina with 52 percent of the vote. Haley is next at 22 percent. Most of the polls were taken before Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida dropped out, and still showed him at 11 percent, with the others in the weeds.

 

“Tim Scott v. Nikki Haley” – Politics is a game of sharp elbows, often times thrown unpredictably. I was all but certain that when Sen. Tim Scott (R) South Carolina dropped out of the presidential race last week, that he would surely endorse the pe rson who appointed him to the U.S. Senate, that being former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina. Instead, Scott endorsed Trump. At first, I thought this was a brutal betrayal and snub. But a co-worker whom I highly respect said, “You don’t suppose Scott endorsed Trump, with the promise that he would make Haley the VP nominee?” And wow, that is possible! Another co-worker thought it was a deal to make Scott the VP choice. In either case, you get a minority running mate, which would help Trump in urban areas of the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin in Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016, by getting a significant percentage of minority votes.

 

“The Independent Factor” – Advantage Haley” – Yes, I called Haley’s path to the nomination a long-shot “Hail Mary Pass” at this point, but it is still possible. Here’s what Washington Post exit polling told us in New Hampshire. Of Republican voters, 74 percent voted for Trump, with just 25 percent for Haley. But when independent voters weighed in, it was 39 percent for Trump, to 58 percent for Haley. It just tells you a lot of people want an alternative to former President Trump, and indeed among independents, an alternative to President Biden, too.

 

“Super Tuesday Fade” - Given the above analysis, I believe there is a very narrow window for either party to jettison its “heir apparent nominee.” Otherwise, we are full-speed ahead for a 2024 Biden-Trump rematch in November. There are sixteen contests on Super Tuesday. Seven are in red states, seven are in blue states, with two in the purple states of Virginia and North Carolina. Right now, Nikki Halley leads in none of those states, and Trump may win the nomination in theory on March 5th. But does Haley pitch to be VP or would the tough-talking former U.N. Ambassador under Trump be a logical choice for Secretary of State. The backstage maneuvering is getting interesting.

 

“Why Immigration Matters” – As my readers know, my base of operations these past nine years has been West Virgina, with Rhode Island being my stomping grounds for five years before that. Given my proximity to New Hampshire back then, I made many, many visits to the Granite State. Why is that important? Well West Virginia and New Hampshire have the two highest opioid overdose death rates per capita in the nation. The problem with opioids, including the Chinese-made and then Mexican-trafficked synthetic heroin known as Fentanyl, remains a big Trump issue. It galvanizes his tough stance on unauthorized immigration.

 

Immigration v. the Economy” – Various political polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire prior to the recent votes showed that immigration had passed the economy as the top issue in this presidential campaign. The images from the border show chaos and the situation out of control. People ask me, “Why do non-Southern border states like West Virgina and New Hampshire care about immigration?” The answer is deadly Fentanyl which creeps into the heartland, as well as the smaller states such as Rhode Island. Many on both sides of the aisle say it has to be stopped.

 

“The Opioid Crisis Impact” -- This week I interviewed Rep. Carol Miller (R) West Virginia, whose district included Huntington, ground-zero for the worst city opioid crisis in the U.S. She backs Trump. "Well, he was right on it, and we need to continue to be on it and to build the wall and to have more border patrol and to pay them better, to make sure that they have enough support.” Congresswoman Miller added, “We have people on the (Mexican) most-wanted list that are coming in here and we don't know what they are going to be doing." This must stop NOW!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

Related Articles

 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook