Washington Rumbles and Bumbles—“The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

View Larger +

Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy PHOTO: Twitter

I have a “love-hate” relationship with political polling. Yes, they can tell us trends, but they don’t guarantee final outcomes. What I worry about is when someone is so far ahead, many voters won’t even give a listen to someone in second or third place, even though those candidates often have something thoughtful to say. The latest national Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has it: Donald Trump 61 percent, Ron DeSantis 14 percent, Nikki Haley 10 percent, Vivek Ramaswamy 5 percent, and Chris Christie 3 percent.

 

“GOP Debate #4” – And then there were four! The debate stage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama Wednesday night was narrowed to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina, and tech-entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy of Ohio. Then, by the skin of his teeth, former Gov Chris Christie (R) New Jersey barely made the cut. I am a non-partisan, independent voter, but am disturbed by this. We are just over a month away from New Hampshire’s “first-in-the-nation” primary with fewer options, instead of multiple options, as we had months ago. I want to have a field of choices and options. These debates and early polls are NOT votes, but society (including many in the media), acts like they are.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

 

“A Debate of Sharp Elbows” – Despite the small field, with Trump again a no-show, the debate got feisty. Ramaswamy, as he has done before, was highly critical of Haley and Christie. Christie called Ramaswamy, “the most obnoxious blowhard in America,” and then told him to, “Shut up!” Ramaswamy said Haley, a former UN Ambassador, could not name the three provinces of Ukraine and that “my three-year-old son” could help Haley “find Israel on the map.” Christie then interrupted to defend Haley saying, “This is a smart, accomplished woman. You should stop insulting her!” Christie was the only debater who attacked Trump, saying, “The fifth guy doesn’t have the guts to show up,” and, “He is unfit to be President. There is no bigger issue in this race.” Then Ramaswammy fired back at Christie, saying, “Walk yourself off of this stage, have a nice meal, and get the hell out of this race.” Ouch, ouch, and ouch!

 

“Why This Debate Mattered” – Until the morning after this debate there were no more Republican debates scheduled before the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd.  The latest Real Clear Composite Poll of the Granite State is far different from the nationwide poll. Trump is at 46 percent in New Hampshire and dropping. Haley is at 19 percent and has risen sharply. Christie is at 11 percent and rising as well. DeSantis is at 8 percent and is declining. Ramaswamy is at 7 percent and rising modestly. So, this first primary is much different than the national polls. A stronger showing by Haley or Christie could boost them in other early states, including Haley’s home of South Carolina. New Hampshire could change the momentum. But we all lucked out (I think), because the morning after the Alabama debate, new GOP “talkfests” were scheduled right before the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.

 

“Breaking News that may be Braking News” – Late Thursday night CNN broke that presidential son Hunter Biden was being charged with nine additional federal tax charges, in addition to the charges already on file. You combine this with the fact that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R) Louisiana said last week that he has the votes to launch a formal impeachment inquiry of President Biden this spring. Of course, at the same time, we have any number of criminal trials facing former President Trump. This may be the “perfect storm” Trump was looking for. With both sides under fire, both sides could look fatally flawed to a lot of voters, especially independents. Biden’s troubles may neutralize and mitigate Trump’s. And both their troubles could fuel a third-party bid.

 

“The Ex-Speaker has Spoken” – It has been a roller coaster ride this year for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California. He was barely elected Speaker of the House in January after 14 ballots. Just ten months later Republicans voted to oust him from the leadership post, the first time in history a Speaker had been removed. This week McCarthy announced he will resign from Congress at the end of the year. So, what does this mean? Well, the hard right of the Republican party clearly has seized control. That does not bode well for moderates like McCarthy elsewhere, as the GOP only has a slim, five-vote majority in the House. On the other hand, McCarthy is likely to be replaced by a fellow Republican, as he represents a solidly red district in and around Bakersfield, California. Democrats will need to win the majority elsewhere, likely in the suburbs.

 

“Burgum Bug Out” – I was really disappointed to see Gov. Doug Burgum (R) North Dakota bow out of this race. He is a bright guy, who made millions as a high-tech entrepreneur, from a small state with one of the nation’s brightest economies. He was in the first two Republican debates. He also stirred controversy by offering so-called “$20 Biden Relief Cards,” to help folks deal with inflation during President Joe Biden's term. All you had to do was make a $1 donation. Was it legal? Maybe? Maybe not! The debate goes on. But for once, politics was FUN!!!

 

“West Virginia Hoedown Showdown” – And the nation’s premiere U.S. Senate race, which is here in West Virginia, erupted again this week. Five-term Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia launched an attack ad against his opponent Gov. Jim Justice (R) West Virginia. The Mooney ad noted that Justice, who was elected as a Democrat in 2016, changed to the Republican Party just six years ago saying, "Yet Justice and his family have bankrolled over 100 Democrats" and then the ad showed video and narration of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Justice fired back at my question during a Tuesday press conference saying, "It is an absolute bald, flat lie, to think that Jim Justice, if you really believe that Jim Justice supported Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, you have to be totally out of your mind. That's all there is to it." Control of the U.S. Senate hangs on this race! In the meantime, we’ll keep combing campaign records.

 

Related Articles

 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook