I Love Polls; I Hate Polls – “The Sunday Political Brunch”—May 5, 2024

Sunday, May 05, 2024

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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PHOTO: Jon Tyson, Unsplash

As a reporter, social scientist, and educator, polling has always fascinated me. I always caution folks, polling is only a “snapshot in time.” If you poll well on questions on Saturday, and then something bad happens on Sunday, it can invalidate the answers you already have in hand. So, polls are fleeting. On the other hand, those brief “snapshots in time” can still offer keen insights into where we might be headed. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“The Youth Vote is in Play” – It’s weird. Ever since the voting age was lowered during the Vietnam War, from 21 to 18, youth voting, has for the most part, been inconsequential, with a few exceptions. Voters under age 25 came out in droves for the Barack Obama-Joe Biden ticket in 2008, but less so in 2012. Still in both cases, they were a big part of the margin of victory. And they came back, but in lower numbers, for Biden in 2020. There are indications they might not show up to any significant degree in 2024, and that’s troublesome for the Biden White House.

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“Polls and the Protest Vote” – One big place where the polls might tank with youth voters, is over the Israel-Hamas War. The intensity of college campus protests this week could spell trouble for the White House. Students are strongly against White House policies backing Israel. Depending on how long the controversy lasts, it could spill into the fall campaign. That’s not good for the incumbent. Similar images in 1967-68 over the Vietnam War helped torpedo the reelection bid of President Lyndon Johnson, who simply dropped out. Is history going to repeat itself?

 

“Why the Disconnect?” – One of Biden’s big promises to youth voters in 2020 was to forgive a sizable portion of their student loan debt, until the U.S. Supreme Court shot down his plan. This was a huge disappointment to many young people, many who expected forgiveness of $10,000 to $20,000. Renown pollster Frank Luntz said on CNN, “Yes, they believe they’ve been ignored, forgotten, and the word of all, betrayed.” Luntz added, “And I am paying attention to the words and phrases that they use, because the stronger the language, the greater the anger.” Are all these young people likely to flock to Trump? Maybe not, but the biggest concern for Democrats is that young voters just sit on their hands and stay home.

 

“The Kennedy ‘Comeback Kid’ Dilemma” – Up until now, most polls have showed Trump leading Biden, by a point or two, at best. That was because polls indicated third-party candidate Robert F. “Bobby” Kennedy, Jr. was taking more voters from Biden, than Trump. But a new poll may toss that on its ear. An NBC Poll has the race 46 percent for Trump, to 44 percent for Biden. But an alternative poll, that includes three third-party candidates, appears to flipsthe outcome. The poll has Biden 39 percent to Trump 37 percent. Kennedy lands 13 percent, with two minor party candidates polling a collective five percent. As we’ve seen in other polls, Kennedy is poised to be a spoiler, but in which direction? We’re still not so sure.

 

"Another Troubling Poll” -- New numbers from the Gallup poll indicate Biden had the lowest approval rating during the first quarter of his re-election year of any president in the past 70 years. Trump leads Biden 49%-43% among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, according to the CNN. Fifty-five percent of people in the latest CNN Poll now say Trump’s presidency was a success, versus 44 percent who say it was a failure. But 39 percent of those polled now called Biden’s terms a success, with 61 percent calling it a failure. We are still six months away from the vote, but most of the polling trends I just mentioned, have to be troubling to Camp Biden.

 

“A $9,000 Punchline? You Make the Jokes!” – On Wednesday, the judge in Trump’s criminal trial finally found the ex-president in contempt of court for statements he made on social media about the case. The fine? He ordered the ex-president to pay $9,000 but warned him that more fines and jail time could still be coming. Nine-grand, to a multi-billionaire? That’s like beer money for Trump, (even though he doesn’t drink). I’m not taking sides here, but I do have concerns about limiting political speech in an election campaign, versus limiting out of court inflammatory comments in a criminal case, which could sway jurors. It’s just another issue that may head to the U.S. Supreme Court. I’d appreciate that clarity from the highest court in the land.

 

“Trump Loses ‘Hope’” – Former top Trump advisor Hope Hicks took the stand in the so-called “hush money” trial in New York Friday. Hicks said there was panic in the campaign in 2016 over video tapes where Trump bragged about groping women and that another woman (Stormy Daniels), was about to come forward claiming an affair with Trump and wanted to be bought off. “I had a good sense to believe this was going to be a massive story and that it was going to dominate the news cycle for the next several days,” Hicks testified. “This was a damaging development," she added.

 

“Justice Can be Kind” – In a surprise move, the judge in Trump’s trial said the case could stand down for a day so Trump could attend his son Barron’s high school graduation. The judge initially resisted, but I support his compassionate decision. The legal system should be about judging the accused, not about collateral damage to innocent bystanders. I’m not a Pollyanna… as I know people are tried and sentenced daily regardless of similar circumstances. But here I support taking the issue off the table so it can’t be used as evidence of a “biased agenda.” Let the jury decide a clean case, with no agenda or accusations of bias.

 

“Who Speaks for the Speaker?” – We are headed for a showdown this week over Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R) Louisiana. Some rebellious House members including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) Georgia, are promising a resolution to remove Johnson as Speaker (who only enjoys a five-vote majority). The minority Democrat leadership has come to Johnson’s aid to say many of its members will vote to keep Johnson. I know it seems weird, but Democrats could face a far more-right conservative than Johnson, so they are trying to gain some leverage. The old saying, “The enemy of my enemy, is my friend,” comes to mind in this scenario.

 

“Arizona Abortion” – As the week ended, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) Arizona, signed a bill to repeal a Civil War-era total abortion ban. The state still has a 15-week ban that a Republican majority passed and the previous governor signed, (with no exceptions). Meanwhile, South Dakota is poised to be the next state to add a ballot initiative in November to let voters, not lawmakers, decide the issue once and for all. More states are likely headed that way. I see abortion remaining  in the top-four issues heading into November.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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