Can Elorza Catch Cianci in Providence Mayoral Media Wars?

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Kate Nagle, GoLocal Contributor

With the general election less than a month away, which Providence Mayoral candidate has the media strategy to win?

In his 28 days prior to election campaign finance report, former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci said he has just over $300,000 cash on hand, while opponent Democrat Jorge Elorza has claimed $161,695 cash on hand after raising close to $200,000 during the same reporting period.  

"TV is crucial - I am very surprised that Elorza is not yet airing any TV ads - this gives voters no basis to compare him to Cianci and voters will tend to go with the candidate more familiar to them, even with a checkered history," said Brown Professor of Political Science Wendy Schiller, of Elorza's ability to highlight Cianci's record of being a two-time convicted felon.  

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"We'll probably raise another $150,000 to $200,000," said Cianci of the coming four weeks.  "We'll have about $500,000 to spend now before Election Day.  All of our TV is paid for through the third week in October."

Despite the historical reliance on television advertising, GoLocal's Arielle Confino wrote following the primary season on the declining prevalence of television in campaigns' advertising arsenals, a trend which academics and political analysts are following closely this season.  

"Typically, television advertising in important, especially in the last several weeks of a campaign, and if your opponent is using it, as Cianci is.   But, there is nothing typical about this race.   Elorza has been raising money, and has to spend it somehow;  it’s highly likely that television will be the target for those dollars," said Roger Williams University Professor of Political Science June Speakman.  "Other candidates in other races aren’t on the air yet, but will be soon."

"Having said that, though, the fact that Elorza and Gorbea had such strong showings in the primary with no, or little, TV time is an indication that something is changing in the way information is reaching and persuading voters," said Speakman.

Elorza's campaign did not respond to request Tuesday as to if -- or when -- they planned on launching television adverstising.  

Targeting Key Voters

With a significant number of undecided voters in play in the Providence Mayor's race, the media strategy of each of the three candidates will be a major factor in the outcome of the election.

"There’s still a substantial number of undecided voters.  This means that the undecideds need concrete reasons for voting for Elorza, who is considerably less well known and desperately needs the media exposure," said Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Valerie Endress.  "As to media strategy, Elorza can reinforce the negativity tied to Cianci, but because of the former Mayor’s notoriety, it will have limited effect at this point in the campaign."

"A television ad is no substitute for in-depth reporting about a candidate’s plans, but it can highlight policy differences between candidates and leave viewers with a vision of what an Elorza administration would look like," continued Endress.  "A television ad may spur voters to dig deeper, if they believe that the candidate brings to the table concrete and reasonable plans." 

While Cianci has had a substantial media buy and presence to date, Brown's Schilling questioned the strategy of Cianci's looking back at his past history -- and ahead to the future.  

"It is combination of both backward and forward appeal - but it is contradictory," said Schiller of Cianci's on-air advertising to date.  "How can Cianci claim to have saved the city but now describe it as a broken down place in decline?"

Endress noted that Elorza had to address his main opponent on television -- and a debate format wasn't sufficient.  

"Elorza can’t depend only on televised debates to frame his image.  Debates generally attract an audience that is politically informed, and the net effect of debates is to reinforce existing beliefs and motivate voters to show up at the polls," said Endress. 

Paths to Success?

"I'm a strong advocate of the of ground game -- [identify] your supporters and turn them out," said Victor Profughi.  "I'm sure the former Mayor has a lot of experience in that department.  Elorza will have to go a long way to match that."

Republican candidate Daniel Harrop who has indicated that he intends to stay in the race through Election day, spoke to both the traditional -- and new -- media stategies he has employed.  

"I am finding focused print media (to the East Side, Hispanic newspaper -- Providence en Espanol), social media (again, focused on, for me, conservative/GOP voters) and targeted mailing (to GOP voters and unaffiliated in certain wards), has gotten more attention than anything else," said Harrop.  "Most fundraising is done now -- I have $90K left and one major public fundraiser left, as well as one mailing."

Were wedge candidate Harrop, who got 6% of the recent WPRI poll, exit the race, who would benefit -- Cianici or Erloza?  

"My guess is that if Harrop drops out, those voters skip the ballot line for Mayor altogether," said Schiller.  

Endress believed that Elorza would stand to gain by such a move -- but would have to capitalize on such an opportunity.  

"Conventional wisdom would say that Elorza would be the beneficiary, because Cianci’s success is dependent upon a third candidate siphoning votes from Elorza.   But, there are few who would tell you that there isn’t a path to victory for Cianci," said Endress. "Again, look to Elorza’s ground game to be a big factor.  This election may turn on what sort of resources the Elorza campaign can bring to the table."
 

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