Ric Santurri: Behind the Numbers in the Providence Mayoral Election
Thursday, September 11, 2014
In Providence mayoral politics, the road to victory has been clear. Destroy your opponents on the East Side, win the South Side, and hold your own everywhere else and you're the new mayor of Providence.
Yesterday, Jorge Elorza traveled most of that road to become the Democratic nominee to face Vincent A. (Buddy) Cianci in November. The win came directly due to an improbable and unprecedented twist in the campaign – one of his two main opponents, Brett Smiley, dropping out of the race, endorsing Elorza, and using his East Side political cachet, campaign staff, and considerable electoral skills to gift wrap the vote rich East Side for Elorza.
Elorza vanquished Council President Michael Solomon by a margin of 6.4% citywide by racking up a huge plurality on the East Side. In an election where a hair over 21,000 votes were cast for mayor, the three East Side wards, which contain 20% of the city's population, turned out 28% of the primary vote. Board of Election results available on primary night, which do not include mail ballots and one small East Side precinct, show Elorza with 4,139 East Side votes out of 6,068 cast there, an incredible 68.2%. Solomon tallied a feeble 1,556 votes there, 25.6%, despite the endorsement of councilmen in two of the three wards.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTHuge East Side Vote For Elorza
When Elorza emerged from the East Side with almost 2,600 more votes than Solomon, in a race where turnout was down almost 20% from the last mayor's race in 2010, Solomon's path to victory became very difficult. Solomon rode support from council people in most of the remaining wards to tally more votes than Elorza in the 12 non-East Side wards, 7,634 to 6423. Unlike the East Side, where Councilmen Samuel Zurier and Seth Yurdin offered shamefully little in the way of electoral results for the candidate they endorsed, on the South Side Councilman Luis Aponte and Councilwoman Carmen Castillo helped turn out voters for Solomon, who was able to neutralize Elorza in Latino vote heavy areas where Angel Taveras dominated in 2010.
November Matchup Wiith Buddy
What does this look behind the numbers mean for Elorza in his November 4 matchup with former Mayor Buddy Cianci? If the East Side again comes out big for Elorza, and South Side Democrats rally behind their party's nominee, Elorza is going to be very difficult to beat.
Cianci figures to run well in many of the same areas where Solomon did, like Mt. Pleasant and Elmhurst, but former Cianci strongholds like Silver Lake and Federal Hill have very different electoral makeups since Buddy last ran for mayor. These formerly Italian dominated areas now see Silver Lake heavily Latino, and Federal Hill is so different that many of the newcomers even renamed it as the West Side, a funky mix of students, hipsters, artists, progressives, gays, Latinos, and the remaining Italians. Elorza held his own in both areas in the primary.
The problem for Cianci is there isn't a credible third candidate in the race to draw votes from the Democratic nominee in heavily Democratic Providence. I expect GOP candidate Daniel Harrop to now withdraw from the race, figuring his campaign will do nothing but draw East Side votes from Elorza. Harrop is on record saying he won't do anything to contribute to a Cianci victory. This is the last election with the party choice box on the ballot known as the master lever, and Providence has always had a lot of master lever Democratic voters, another big advantage to Elorza.
Cianci Road To Victory
How can Cianci pull out a victory? Cianci must cut into Elorza's huge plurality in the East Side to succeed. However, in the past dozen years, that bloc didn't buy the “I'm more experienced” pitch, rejecting it from former mayor Joseph Paolino in favor of David Cicilline in 2002 and John Lombardi for Angel Taveras in 2010. Also, many selected Elorza over Solomon because they saw him as better able to defeat Cianci in November. How does Cianci convert chose voters? He probably can't.
Cianci will have to dominate with the old Providence voting bloc, which is very possible, and also form alliances with Democratic Latino councilors who formerly supported Solomon. He will then have to count on Harrop to draw enough East Side votes from Elorza to allow Cianci to eek out a victory with 45% of the vote.
Forming alliances with Aponte, Castillo, and Ward 14 Councilwoman Sabina Matos won't be an easy task. They are all progressive, loyal Democrats who are big Gina Raimondo supporters. It's going to be extremely difficult for Cianci to convince any of them to leave the Democratic fold for the mayor's race. It may have been more acceptable in 1990 for city elected Democrats to stray away from the party to support independent Cianci, but in 2014, progressive Democrats will be less likely to endorse outside the party.
How can they work to turn out Democratic voters for Raimondo, Secretary of State candidate Nellie Gorbea, progressive treasurer candidate Seth Magaziner, and then independent Cianci? The logical move would be for them to ask their constituents to vote for the entire Democratic ticket by checking the master lever. These councilors had close working relationships with council president Solomon, and that's what brought them into his fold. They don't have those same relationships with Cianci.
Cianci does have the endorsement of councilmen John Igliozzi in Silver Lake's Ward 7 and Kevin Jackson in Mount Hope/East Side's Ward 3, and may pick up endorsement from one or two councilmen in old Providence areas, but that's all the endorsements I see in his future. The third councilman who had endorsed Cianci, Davian Sanchez, lost his Ward 11 (upper South Providence) re-election bid to Mary Kay Harris. I also don't see General Assembly Latinos like Rep. Grace Diaz stepping outside the party to endorse Cianci, since she's acting chairwoman of the state Democratic Party.
Elorza Must Bring Together Providence Latino Officials
If Elorza is able to garner the support of Providence Latino councilors, and better connects with Dminican and Puerto Rican voters in the city, he's going to be extremely difficult to beat in the general election. Elorza was able to prevail despite being both seriously outspent and dwarfed in the endorsement department, with only West Side Councilman Bryan Principe in his corner from the council. A good ground game is more essential in a primary, and Solomon's endorsers were able to turn out votes for him, save the East Side. In a general election, party politics rules, and it would be extraordinary to see widespread Democratic elected officials supporting Cianci. Despite Cianci's legendary abilities as a campaigner and his bigger, untapped war chest, the numbers align horribly for him in a match up with Elorza.
Cianci, who has never lost a mayoral election, will run a spirited campaign, but the area where he badly outshines Elorza, experience, doesn't mean a damn thing to the voting bloc that swings Providence mayoral elections, the East Side, which first chose youth and promise of ethical reform over experience in 1974. That winner, of course, was Buddy Cianci.
Ric Santurri is a Providence real estate investor and broker. A graduate of the URI School of Journalism, he has been involved in RI politics for over three decades. The past few years, Ric has been keenly focused on Providence, mainly budget and tax policy, politics and elections, and quality of life issues. Feel free to send comments, tips, and info to [email protected].
