Iran War is Becoming More Unpopular - Rob Horowitz
Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
Iran War is Becoming More Unpopular - Rob Horowitz
Unlike nearly every other major American military action since World War II, the war against Iran started out without majority support. As we pass the one- month mark, since together with Israel our attacks on Iran commenced, it is becoming even more unpopular.
In a new Fox News poll, for instance, only 42% of registered voters support our current military action against Iran, while 58% oppose it. Three weeks ago, Fox had it as a 50-50 split.
The results of other recent credible national polls are in the same range as Fox, registering a similar level of mounting opposition to the war. According to a Pew Research Center survey, for example, less than 4-in-10 (38%) Americans approve of our military action against Iran, while nearly 6-in-10 (59%) disapprove. Similarly, in the CBS News poll, 40% approve of our military action, while 60% disapprove. Nate Silver’s weighted average of national polls puts support for the Iran war at 15% points underwater: 39% approval as compared to 54% disapproval.
President Trump is paying the price for launching a war against Iran without making a sustained and persuasive case to the nation about why he deemed it necessary. This is important to do whenever you begin military action, but in a case like this one, where there was no credible imminent threat upon which to point, it is all the more essential to make a cogent public case in advance.
The president’s erratic and often contradictory pronouncements since the war began have not helped correct his initial mistake; if anything, they have made the public more skeptical. Only about 1-in-3 (32%) Americans now say that the Trump administration has clearly explained it goals, as compared to more than 2-in-3(68%) who say "they have not done that yet," according to the CBS News poll. A related and perhaps more troubling public opinion measure highlights the administration’s continuing failure to convince the American public of the wisdom of its actions in Iran: “By nearly two-to-one, more Americans say the military action against Iran will make the U.S. less safe in the long run (40%) than say it will make the country safer (22%)/” reported Pew.
Since most Americans are not persuaded that our war with Iran is wise or will turn out well, it is not surprising that they don’t view higher gas prices as a necessary sacrifice. About 2-in-3 (67%) American adults don’t believe that Americans should be willing to pay more for gas during the conflict, according to the CBS News poll. As a result, the continuing sharp rise in gasoline prices on the home front, caused by Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz-- through which 20% of the world’s oil flows-- is contributing to driving down support for the war.
As the time to make key decisions is rapidly approaching, including whether to use ground troops in at least some limited fashion, the American public has little faith that the president will make good ones. Nearly 6-in-10 (58%) have no or not much confidence in Trump making the right decisions regarding the Iran conflict, according to the CBS News poll.
Mr. Trump’s too many outright falsehoods, coupled with constant exaggerations and a bombastic communications style, do not serve him well during a crisis. As was the case during the COVID-19 epidemic in his first term, the public is losing confidence in his leadership. When the stakes are high, people want to count on their president to tell them the truth, provide a reasoned argument for the course he is pursuing and not continually lash out at those who might disagree whether they are foreign allies or domestic critics. President Trump is failing all 3 of these basic tests.
While we are all rooting for a quick and unvarnished victory to this war of choice, at this moment that seems highly unlikely. That puts a premium on better, more straightforward and consistent communication from the president and his top officials going forward; communication that treats us as grown-up citizens to be leveled with, not gullible fans that can be easily propagandized.
I am sure not holding my breath in anticipation of this course correction, but as the old saying goes, “hope springs eternal.” The president’s top advisors, all of whom can read a poll, know that what he is doing now is only making matters worse.