Horowitz: The Trump Victory

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

 

View Larger +

Rob Horowitz

Defying the predictions of most pundits and pollsters, including this one, Donald Trump amassed a solid Electoral College majority, breaking through and winning the blue states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—usually Presidential year locks for the Democrats.

Trump won the Presidential election, despite the fact that when all the votes are counted, it looks as if he will lose the popular vote by more than 1 million votes and as much as 2 percentage points.  He also won an election in which 6-in-10 voters had an unfavorable impression of him and did not believe he was qualified to serve as President, according to Exit Polls. This means more than 1-in-5 people whom cast their vote for Donald Trump neither liked him nor believed he was qualified to hold the office.

The fact that so many voters were willing to take a chance on a man they didn’t like and didn't believe had either the qualifications or temperament to hold the job, was a reflection of the discomfort with Hillary Clinton, who while more liked that Donald Trump, remained the second most unpopular nominee in the history of modern polling. But mostly it showed how strong the desire for ‘change’ was in a good portion of the electorate.  By nearly 2-to-1 voters believed the country was off on the wrong track, and 69% of the voters whom believed that chose Trump. Further, more than 6-in-10 voters characterized the economy as” not good or poor” and voters with those views of our economic situation, cast more than 60% of their votes for the Businessman and former Reality Television Star. Perhaps most telling, among the nearly 40% of the electorate indicating ‘can bring change” was the most important candidate quality, Donald Trump won more than 80% of the vote.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

In a truly divided electorate, the other key to Trump’s win was the performance of key demographic groups. . Trump’s victory was less a result of higher turnout among the non-college white voters, whom were the base of his candidacy and whom comprise a greater share of the electorate in the Blue States he won than in the rest of the nation, than of a garnering an even higher percentage of these voters than recent Republican nominees.  For example, Trump won non-college whites by 41 points, while Romney won them by 26 points. Still, overall, because Trump did not perform as well with college educated whites as Mitt Romney or other previous Republican nominees, he ended up with roughly the same percentage of the white vote as Mitt Romney—59%  But his exceptional performance with non-college whites gave him a leg up in the Blue States that put him over the top. 

The even larger contributor to Trump’s win, however, was Hillary Clinton’s failure to match President Obama’s performance in the key groups that comprise the so-called Obama coalition.  The anticipated Latino voter surge did not materialize and Trump ended up doing slightly better than Romney with this sub-group. More expected, Hillary Clinton did not come close to matching President Obama’s percentage of the vote or turn-out with African-Americans. And among millennials, Clinton ran 5 points behind Obama with these voters abandoning her for Gary Johnson, not Trump.

Donald Trump’s win was much more a rejection of Hillary Clinton and the political establishment, than it was an endorsement of him or his  policies. On the issue of immigration, for example, 70% of voters believed that illegal immigrants working in the United States should be offered legal status, while only 25% indicated they should be deported to their home country.

I hope that he and his team recognize this fact and move quickly to take the actions required to convince people that Donald Trump will be President of all the people and to reach across the aisle and move common purpose ideas such as a big investment in infrastructure in the early days of his Presidency. 

Donald Trump deserves to be congratulated for his upset win, but he has a long way to go to convince most Americans that he is ready to be President. His more modulated tone since his victory is a hopeful sign, however, it is only a beginning. Most of us, whether we voted for him or not, are rooting for him to succeed.


Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, elected official and candidates.  He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island.

 

SEE THE ELECTION 2016 WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE SLIDESHOW BELOW

 

Related Slideshow: Winners and Losers - 2016 Election

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Joe Trillo and John DePetro

While most Republicans in Rhode Island were hiding in the bushes, Trillo (the former GOP lawmaker) and DePetro (the WPRO talk show host) were loyal advocates for Donald Trump from the beginning and through the rough spots.

Both could be big winners and could score slots with the administration -- want to go to the White House? You now know the rings you need to kiss.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Donald Trump, President of the United States

The most unlikely candidate pulled off the biggest victory in Presidential history. The billionaire developer was underestimated which set forth much of his success during the primaries and in the election. The next four years will never be dull.   

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

General Michael Flynn

The Rhode Island native and URI grad will have a major roll in the Trump Administration and America's foreign policy. As top GOP consultant Ian Prior wrote in GoLocal in July about Flynn when he was on the VP shortlist:

Of course, there are any number of national security experts that can prosecute the case against Hillary Clinton, but Flynn is unique. He is a registered Democrat that was appointed by President Obama in 2012 to serve as Director of the DIA. Even more importantly, he resigned two years later over what he believed to be a misguided approach by the administration as it concerned ISIS.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State

This year's election was one of the the most mismanaged in modern Rhode Island history. First, the Chief-of Staff of the Secretary of State's office gets into a battle with talk show host John DePetro on social media. The action seemed inappropriate at best for the head of the office administering the election.

Then, the state's Presidential election hit a number of rough spots with faulty equipment and a failed repair and triage system that lead to long lines and frustration in a number of communities across the state.

The job of Secretary of State has three major components:

1) Take care of the State's achieves

2) Maintain a database of businesses

3) Run the state's elections

She needs to assure voters that she understands the problems and correct the mistakes.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Brandon Bell, GOP Chair

Both Democratic Congressional candidates won big. The GOP had a net loss in the legislature.

Bell went all in on taking out Speaker Nick Mattiello -- a pro-business legislator, instead of recruiting a large number of competitive candidates. If Mattiello delivers of paper ballots like his campaign claims - Bell will have wildly miscalculated at every level and will have left the GOP a weaker party.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Losers

Cicilline and Langevin

A Trump win greatly increases the likelihood that Rhode Island will lose a Congressional seat in the next federal redistricting. Rhode Island will be more like Vermont and Delaware -- two Senators and just one House member. This will mean a big loss for Rhode Island's clout in D.C.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Allan Fung, Republican Mayor of Cranston

Fung had just the kind of night he wanted to have. He ran up big numbers against Democrat Mike Sepe and put parkinggate in his proverbial rear window.

The margin of victory is impressive -- Fung ran up 68% of the vote and has established himself as one of the top Republicans in Rhode Island.

Now, the personable Fung is the GOP frontrunner to challenge Raimondo as it does not look like she is going to Washington, D.C. now.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

RI's Broken Technology Infrastructure 

No money, no car, and no vote.

Lets see if we got this right. You have to wait in line to vote in some locations for as much as two hours because not enough scanners were deployed. Some days you can't register your car because the Hewlett-Packard system is not deployed and the state is now suing the company. And, tens of thousands of folks most in need have not been able to get their most critical benefits (or the from benefits) because the UHIP technology was flawed despite hundreds of millions being spent. 

View Larger +
Prev Next

Winner

Speaker of the House, Nick Mattiello

If Mattiello does hold on to his House seat, he will be a stronger Speaker than ever before. He has added more Democrats to his majority and was the architect to many of the Democrats victories. 

The simmering stress between Mattiello and Raimondo will turn into a vibrant boil over during the next two years. Raimondo was no help to Mattiello or House members -- they had to clean up for her truck tolls and absorb her unwillingness to release 38 Studios documents.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Gina Raimondo, Governor

Raimondo's options and national political network just took a major blow. No longer can Raimondo jump to the Clinton Administration to avoid a difficult reelection. Moreover, national Democratic connections are now in Siberia as the Presidency, the House and the Senate are all in Republican hands.

View Larger +
Prev Next

Loser

Peter F. Neronha United States Attorney District of Rhode Island 

In a short period, it is highly likely the Neronha and a few other high profile political appointees will be replaced by the Trump White House. 

The impact of Ray Gallison and others is an unknown.

 
 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook