Horowitz: New Hampshire Primary Preview

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

Rob Horowitz

With New Hampshirites heading to the polls today in what the New Hampshire Secretary of State predicts will be in record numbers, the nomination contests in both parties appear to be headed for protracted fights—ones that tonight’s results may do little to clarify Here is a preview of today’s Republican and Democratic Primaries and their potential impact on the races going forward:

Republican Primary

The rise and now anticipated fall of Senator Marco Rubio has been the most reported and discussed story of the past week or so on the Republican side. Fueled, by exceeding expectations in Iowa with a strong 3rd place finish—just a percentage point behind Donald Trump, Rubio began rising in the New Hampshire polls and there was much speculation that he could even end up winning the primary.

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That talk abruptly ended after Saturday night’s debate, when in response to an attack from Governor Christie about his inexperience, lack of accomplishments and robotic delivery of the exact same talking points, Rubio repeated the exact same line 4 times. This damaging exchange on the first term US Senator’s greatest point of vulnerability was the number one topic on all the Sunday shows and was splashed across the front pages of New Hampshire newspapers

This probably ends any chance Rubio has of winning tonight or of finishing such a strong second that it effectively finishes off the campaigns of the other so-called establishment candidates—Christie, Bush and Kasich. As is often the case in multi-candidate, races the candidate who launches the tough attack, in this case Christie is unlikely to reap the benefits and the New Jersey Governor’s campaign seems stuck in place anyway. The other Governors Kasich and Bush—both of whom had good debate performance stand to gain the most.

But perhaps the biggest beneficiary of a week in which most of the other candidates trained their attacks on Rubio is Donald Trump, who is leading in the New Hampshire polls. With the exception of one effective attack from Jeb Bush on eminent domain, Trump escaped the debate unscathed and delivered a solid performance. With a high unfavorable, Trump needs a crowded field to prevail and that is precisely what he has in New Hampshire and may now have for the foreseeable future.

Given that Independents can vote in either primary, the high percentage of late deciders, the large number of candidates, and the absence of party cues to shape voter choices, the results this evening are unpredictable. Also, despite predictions of the momentum a victory may provide as we look towards the next context in South Carolina, I would sound a cautionary note. In 2012 Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary with nearly 40% of the vote; The South Carolina winner was Newt Gingrich, the 4th place finisher in New Hampshire with less than 10% of the vote, who defeated Romney by 12 percentage points.

Democratic Primary

Senator Bernie Sanders goes in to today with what appears to be a substantial lead, 53% to 41%, in the Real Clear Politics(RCP) average of recent polls, But before prematurely putting New Hampshire in the Sanders column, remember that Barack Obama had an 8 point lead in the RCP average on primary day in 2008 and Hillary Clinton ended up winning.

But even if Hillary Clinton wins tonight or comes close to winning and is able to prevail in the media expectations wars, Bernie Sanders is likely in this race for the long-haul. The vaunted and possibly over-sold Clinton firewall in South Carolina and perhaps even in Nevada, which is based on her commanding current advantages over Sanders with African-American and Latino Democratic Primary voters, can hold, and there are still Super Tuesday states ,like Minnesota where Sanders is likely to win.

Given the amount of money that Sanders is raising and the genuine excitement around his candidacy, it is hard to envision a quick end to this contest, no matter what occurs this evening. Further, the ongoing federal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server to do State Department business may encourage Sanders to stay in longer than he might otherwise.

Similarly, a substantial win for Bernie Sanders tonight just signals the beginning of a hard-fought contest for the nomination—and given Hillary Clinton’s many strengths in this race—in no way means Sanders is on a glide path to the nomination. The winner in South Carolina after Hillary Clinton’s surprise comeback victory in New Hampshire in 2008: Barack Obama.