Horowitz: The Carly Fiorina Moment

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

Rob Horowitz

By far, the candidate receiving the biggest boost from last week’s Republican Presidential Candidates Debate is Carly Forina. More than half of Republicans thought that Fiorina won the debate and based largely on this performance she moved from 3% in the national horserace to 15%, according to a CNN post-debate poll released on Sunday. This puts her in a statistical tie for 2nd place with Ben Carson and with-in striking range of Donald Trump, who was the debate’s biggest loser.

Fiorina’s crisp and compelling debate performance surpassed even the high expectations set for her as a result of her outstanding debate performance in the so-called kids table debate held on FOX. Fiorina deftly combined mastery of policy specifics with the ability to deliver memorable sound bites. For example, when asked by moderator Jack Tapper to respond to Donald Trump’s initial statement that people would not vote for Fiorina because of “her face” as well as his later claim that he meant her persona not her looks, Carly Fiorina said, “I think women all over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said,” triggering lengthy applause from the audience.

Now, Fiorina must take the next steps and solidify and build on these gains. With 54% of Republicans now rating her favorably and only 17% with an unfavorable opinion, her candidacy has the potential for marked growth.

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But this potential can only be realized if she can withstand the tough criticism of her tenure as CEO of Hewlett-Packard, where she laid off thousands of people at the same time her own compensation was boosted, failed to raise the stock price, and was eventually fired. Given her new status as one of the front-runners, this criticism is already beginning to ramp up. Over the next few weeks, there will be heightened media scrutiny and her opponents led by Donald Trump, who hit her hard on this topic during the debate, are likely to step up their attacks.

Her dilemma, in fighting back against her critics, is that she has few if any other signature accomplishments beyond her tenure at Hewlett- Packard upon which she can fall back. As some of her critics note, no other company has hired her as a CEO since she was fired. As a result, she can’t point to how she learned lessons and was successful in other business endeavors. And she does not have a record in public life that could serve as a counter-balance.

Fiorina faces tough road ahead because she doesn’t have the kind of track record either in the private sector or the public sector to add ballast to her skilled performances. As voters learn more about her, this will not be an unvarnished plus. Because voter opinion fluctuates much more heavily in nomination contests than in general elections-- where candidates are identified by their political party and this identification is determinative for most voters--Fiorina’s support could evaporate as easily as it could grow.

Still, Carly Fiorina has emerged as a top contender based on her skilled performances—impressing primary voters and pundits alike. This provides Fiorina with a fighting chance to capitalize on a moment that she has surely earned.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island