Don Roach: 2nd Place a Win in New Hampshire
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
It comes as no surprise that Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary. For all of you Romney-ites take a bow. In my last column I stated the obvious: unless a monsoon hit and destroyed all of the moderate Republicans in New Hampshire, Romney was likely to win the primary. He was the Governor of neighboring Massachusetts and New England Republicans are far more moderate than their countrymen in other parts of our nation. I’d be surprised if Romney loses any New England state honestly.
The real race was for second place. One of the questions pundits were asking leading up to the primary was Rick Santorum’s ability to leverage his strong showing in Iowa in New Hampshire. The poll results resoundingly answered that question with, “uh…no.” Santorum, as of this posting, received a resounding 9 percent of the votes or…not much. He placed 4th behind Newt Gingrich.
So is Santorum’s ‘surge’ in Iowa over just as quickly as it began? I’m going to say no. What I believe we are starting to see is a paradigm developing within the Republican Party amongst traditional Republicans and Northeastern Republicans. Generally speaking – and this will be an over exaggeration – New England Republicans are for limited government, economic freedom, and are socially moderate. In my opinion, the latter being the primary driver why Santorum is not as attractive a candidate as he was in Iowa. If I was on Santorum’s team, losing any New England state would be of zero consequence because no Republican is likely to win in New England with Romney being the only exception.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTBut, let’s not kid ourselves Romney ‘won’ the primary with 39 percent of the vote so it’s not as if he has a mandate to be the presumptive nominee even in the state of New Hampshire. All it means is that he was the most attractive of the still crowded field of candidates.
Does Ron Paul have a shot?
The winner of the second place sweepstakes was Ron Paul. Paul is such an interesting Republican figure. He’s the quintessential libertarian –strongly opposed to a large federal government and a fierce proponent of states’ rights. Not surprising in the state whose motto is ‘Live free or die’ his message resonated to the tune of 23 percent. Last week, Paul came in 3rd with 21 percent which in my mind is notable for the fact that the political demographics of Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t exactly congruent.
Can Ron Paul win the nomination? I don’t think he can. His ideas are intriguing, his demeanor presidential, and his charm has subtle appeal. But I can’t see him moving beyond the 25 percent in most states with perhaps a surprise win or two in a southern state. He’s been linked too often with the fringe of the Republican party and there are too many questions about the viability of his policy initiatives for him to be a palatable choice for Republicans.
He’ll keep swinging though and in so doing I think he hurts some of the other candidates against Romney.
South Carolina looms large
If Romney wins in Iowa, if he wins in New Hampshire, and he wins in South Carolina, it is going to be difficult for all of the remaining candidates to stay in the race. If a Mormon Yankee defeats this field, it will be tough for them going forward. Again, a large field helps Romney and a smaller field helps the next best candidate with the exception of Paul whom I believe maxes out his vote potential in every race. He simply is who he is.
I checked out a few recent polls to see how things are going in South Carolina and here’s what’s going on:
Huffington Post (Jan. 9) – Romney 36%, Gingrich 21%, Santorum 13%
Rasmussen (Jan. 6) – Romney 27%, Santorum 24%, Gingrich 18%
CNN/Time (Jan. 5) – Romney 37%, Santorum 19%, Gingrich 18%
What’s the common theme amongst the three polls? Romney is in the lead in all three. Santorum has to hope that Rasmussen is on target with the pulse of South Carolina because the other polls don’t look good for either Gingrich or Santorum. If South Carolina turns into another Romney win Gingrich, Perry, & Santorum will need to sit down and discuss if they feel like splitting the vote paving the way for a Romeny win or pooling their resources behind the most electable of the three of them. At this point that seems like Santorum but had you asked that question over the last several months it would have been Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich at any one time.
In any event, the fact remains that if Romney wins South Carolina, this will/should force out a candidate or two. It will also make it more difficult for the other candidates to overtake him with three successive victories in three different parts of the country.
The primary is on the 21st and that evening we’ll have a very good idea of what’s to come in the GOP primary battle.
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